Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[LoudHogRider]

Wow. So, Zillow is shutting down their i-buy division...what the story doesn't share is their augmented value model was waaaay off and they are selling a massive amount of homes in their inventory at a loss. They fired almost all of their data science/engineering division lol. Brutal.

Fuck those fucking fucks for fucking up the Phoenix/Scottsdale market for me. While the price of homes down there was always going to rise due to the influx of CA residents looking for something better that what that state has become, these fucking fucks snapped up ALL of the decent inventory.

Me, to Zillow:

 

[God is a Husker]

Wow. So, Zillow is shutting down their i-buy division...what the story doesn't share is their augmented value model was waaaay off and they are selling a massive amount of homes in their inventory at a loss. They fired almost all of their data science/engineering division lol. Brutal.

I wrote a paper in my real estate transactions class in law school about how Zillow’s valuation methods were fucked.

I deserve my A- (1 of 2) to be retroactively numbed to an A and awarded top paper in the class.

 

[God is a Husker]

 

[Jim14510]

So funny the dems always bitch about rich getting tax cuts with Pub changes. Then they make tax changes and guess what? It's still the rich people getting the majority. Because if you cut taxes it inevitably is going to benefit the people actually paying taxes. Gotta get those democrats states their SALT deduction back though.

 

[God is a Husker]

So funny the dems always bitch about rich getting tax cuts with Pub changes. Then they make tax changes and guess what? It's still the rich people getting the majority. Because if you cut taxes it inevitably is going to benefit the people actually paying taxes. Gotta get those democrats states their SALT deduction back though.

My biggest paper in law skewl was on how the mortgage interest deduction is worthless for its stated goals (helping people afford housing) and all it does is give about 5% of Americans a deduction.

Between needing to itemize (only ~7% of the population) and the cap of $750,000 mtg. the portion of the population that the MID benefits at all is tiny (roughly 2-5%) and NONE of that tiny % are relying on the MID to be able to “afford home ownership”. Nobody who uses the MID wouldn’t be able to afford to own some home without it.


Just a way for the upper middle class to save money.

 

[Jim14510]

My biggest paper in law skewl was on how the mortgage interest deduction is worthless for its stated goals (helping people afford housing) and all it does is give about 5% of Americans a deduction.

Between needing to itemize (only ~7% of the population) and the cap of $750,000 mtg. the portion of the population that the MID benefits at all is tiny (roughly 2-5%) and NONE of that tiny % are relying on the MID to be able to “afford home ownership”. Nobody who uses the MID wouldn’t be able to afford to own some home without it.


Just a way for the upper middle class to save money.

Top 5-15% maybe? Even the 15% is borderline. I don't know how many times I've been asked whether they should pay off their mortgage or if losing the interest deduction will kill them in taxes. Or if they should increase their donations. 80% of the time they don't even itemize on Federal.

P.S. I love that there's someone else on the board that can truly geek out and talk taxes.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

So funny the dems always bitch about rich getting tax cuts with Pub changes. Then they make tax changes and guess what? It's still the rich people getting the majority. Because if you cut taxes it inevitably is going to benefit the people actually paying taxes. Gotta get those democrats states their SALT deduction back though.

You guys would probably know this better but I heard on the radio Today that....

When Biden says "top "x" companies made billions in profit and didn't pay a penny in tax" that the biggest reasons for that are democrat tax credits include a green tax credit.

I just found that ironic if that is true.

 

[BingoDingo]

Fuck those fucking fucks for fucking up the Phoenix/Scottsdale market for me. While the price of homes down there was always going to rise due to the influx of CA residents looking for something better that what that state has become, these fucking fucks snapped up ALL of the decent inventory.

Me, to Zillow:

View attachment 5392

As a homeowner in the area who isn't looking to buy a new home in the next 5-8 years, I love it. Lol

 

[Jim14510]

You guys would probably know this better but I heard on the radio Today that....

When Biden says "top "x" companies made billions in profit and didn't pay a penny in tax" that the biggest reasons for that are democrat tax credits include a green tax credit.

I just found that ironic if that is true.

I'm not a big corporation guy but I doubt the green tax credits are a significant portion of that equation. Certainly a portion but not the biggest. I would imagine one of the biggest in the last handful of years would be bonus depreciation. Which is just a timing difference. Another big piece is whatever income they can run through other countries at a reduced tax rate. R&D credits, low income housing credits, green credits are all pieces.

Not sure there's any one thing that would be the biggest piece by much.

 

[God is a Husker]

You guys would probably know this better but I heard on the radio Today that....

When Biden says "top "x" companies made billions in profit and didn't pay a penny in tax" that the biggest reasons for that are democrat tax credits include a green tax credit.

I just found that ironic if that is true.

I’m guessing Biden was attempting to refer to Corporations stock piling cash. Ex: Apple sitting on $200+ Billion

 

[iruletheskool]

Wow. So, Zillow is shutting down their i-buy division...what the story doesn't share is their augmented value model was waaaay off and they are selling a massive amount of homes in their inventory at a loss. They fired almost all of their data science/engineering division lol. Brutal.

Bought from Zillow 20k less than they paid after they did all the updates

 

[slattimer]

Wow. So, Zillow is shutting down their i-buy division...what the story doesn't share is their augmented value model was waaaay off and they are selling a massive amount of homes in their inventory at a loss. They fired almost all of their data science/engineering division lol. Brutal.

Good thing I bought puts…..

 

[Toe]

It's only 30 companies, and its components are selected by a committee, not through any sort of formula. When it comes down to it, it's really just an arbitrary number that some people made up, and kinda dubious.

 

[That SOB Van Owen]

You guys would probably know this better but I heard on the radio Today that....

When Biden says "top "x" companies made billions in profit and didn't pay a penny in tax" that the biggest reasons for that are democrat tax credits include a green tax credit.

I just found that ironic if that is true.

I’d have to look at the 10-Ks for the specific companies, but the vast majority of the “huge profits and pay no tax” is from net operating losses derived over many years when those companies ran losses.

 

[Jim14510]

When you consider that its membership is selected by a committee and not through any particular formula, it's really just an arbitrary number, and probably not all that meaningful.

Not sure the relevance of this. Old businesses fold and new businesses are created. I'm assuming they're not including any businesses added since 1997.

I would imagine that's a bigger impact than them picking and choosing which ones are included.

 

[That SOB Van Owen]

I’d have to look at the 10-Ks for the specific companies, but the vast majority of the “huge profits and pay no tax” is from net operating losses derived over many years when those companies ran losses.

OK…looked at Apple’s 10-K from last week. They had pre-tax global earnings of $109 billion. Provision for income taxes is $14.5 billion, or an effective tax rate of approximately 13.3%.

However, you have to understand the accounting for income taxes rules and read the tax footnote to interpret that number. Apple’s current tax expense (ie. What they anticipate to actually pay in taxes die the year) is 19.3 billion, or about 17.7%. While this is below the US statutory corporate tax rate of 21%, this is by no means outlandish.

They saved about $4.7 billion in tax in foreign jurisdictions when compared to the US tax rate (completely Normal and legal under transfer pricing rules). However, they also had over $1 billion in R&D credits and got about $2.1 billion in excess benefits for stock comp (this happens when stock compensation is valued at a higher value when it vests to the recipient than when it was granted). This is totally normal and to be expected considering the trajectory that apple’s stock price has had.

They are booking a deferred tax benefit of about $4.8 billion. The largest driver of that appears to be deferred revenue (meaning income that is recognized in the current year for tax purposes, but is not recognized
For accounting until a future year).

Those are my main take aways from Apple’s tax disclosures. Happy to analyze any other public company if it would be helpful.

 

[Toe]

@Jim14510 My point is more that the whole thing is kinda stupid because it's such a small sample size and it's so arbitrary. Only four of the top ten largest US companies by market cap are included in the Dow (and 8 of the top 20). If the list of companies included is just something that some guys made up, then isn't the number effectively just something made up, too? What makes this arbitrary group of 30 a more meaningful measure than any other arbitrary group of 30 companies that you might come up with?

 

[God is a Husker]

They are booking a deferred tax benefit of about $4.8 billion. The largest driver of that appears to be deferred revenue (meaning income that is recognized in the current year for tax purposes, but is not recognized
For accounting until a future year).

This was my take.

I assume somebody explained to Biden about companies like Apple taking deferments and in his old age/his IQ it came out the way he put it in the press conference.



I can’t believe his big “ima pay for errrrthing” idea is just to raise the Corporate rate to 28%.


Instead of having it revert back to 35% like it was under Obama.

OR

Instead of having the boys go through and kill 1/3 the deduction rules in the code.



It’s so funny watching them slightly raise the corporate rate, give tax cuts to the ultra rich and do nothing else and then spike the football like they are basically storming the winter palace and redistributing wealth.


1 hand increases tax revenue slightly and the other hand spends (deductions are a form of spending) more taxpayer money than the new revenue will bring in.
Federal government 101. (BOTH parties)

 

[Jim14510]

@Jim14510 My point is more that the whole thing is kinda stupid because it's such a small sample size and it's so arbitrary. Only four of the top ten largest US companies by market cap are included in the Dow (and 8 of the top 20). If the list of companies included is just something that some guys made up, then isn't the number effectively just something made up, too? What makes this arbitrary group of 30 a more meaningful measure than any other arbitrary group of 30 companies that you might come up with?

Understood. Its not a perfect measure of what the market is doing as a whole but its pretty damn good. Its not like they're willy nilly just picking stocks and switching them up once a week. A big year of changes is 4.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

$NVDA