Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[BingoDingo]

Yeah, I don't disagree on any of that, but I think it's pretty clear that the market hasn't priced in the type of levels that multiple Fed members have explicitly stated(sustained 4%+ fed funds) the past couple weeks. When Mester is basically going out and telling multiple outlets that cuts in 2023 are likely unrealistic, it seems to me a warning call on the equity side.

The Fed is now expected to keep raising rates then hold them there, CNBC survey shows

Wall Street finally looks to be embracing the idea that the Fed will hike rates into restrictive territory and stay there.

www.cnbc.com

Well, looks like we are all on the same page now.

 

[Toe]

 

[LoudHogRider]

I'm laughing (at the meme), and yet I'm crying ... 'cause Comrade Yellen is KILLING ME!

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

 

[jw3]

make it stop!

 

[Drue629]

make it stop!

I played puts so I'm having a great day lol.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

 

[Jim14510]

Are we in a recession yet?

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Are we in a recession yet?

I don't know who can say we are not. Unless we are changing the definition of a recession.......again

 

[Jay Bilzerian]

Are we in a recession yet?

My brokerage account sure is 🙁

 

[Jim14510]

US housing recession could send home prices tumbling 20%, economist says

The U.S. housing market is in a recession, and prices are likely to plunge 20% over the next year as rising mortgage rates take their toll on consumer demand.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

 

[BingoDingo]

Location location location!

 

[BingoDingo]

US housing recession could send home prices tumbling 20%, economist says

The U.S. housing market is in a recession, and prices are likely to plunge 20% over the next year as rising mortgage rates take their toll on consumer demand.

www.foxbusiness.com

Case-Shiller looks like it's just past peak now and just broke seasonal trend, but a 20% drop in 9 months seems like...maybe a bit high? That would mean we are going to see a near identical trend in home prices as the 2008 crash.

 

[Toe]

Counterpoint:

3 charts showing that we’re not repeating the housing bubble: Morning Brief

What to watch in markets on Tuesday, September 27, 2022.

finance.yahoo.com

Thought this was an interesting chart. The Millennials doing most of the buying in the last few years have way better credit scores than the Gen Xers in the 00s did. I remember my managerial accounting prof remarking that she saw a big difference in credit card usage and responsibility between Gen X college students vs Millennials. I suspect that another big factor is Millennials weren't able to buy until a later age than previous generations.

 

[Toe]

Ow, my bonds. TLT just dropped below its 2013 Taper Tantrum low.

 

[RedSavage]

Ow, my bonds. TLT just dropped below its 2013 Taper Tantrum low.

Ouch. I would never buy a non-actively managed bond etf/fund, personally

Also, duration is not your friend during rising rates

 

[Jim14510]

Case-Shiller looks like it's just past peak now and just broke seasonal trend, but a 20% drop in 9 months seems like...maybe a bit high? That would mean we are going to see a near identical trend in home prices as the 2008 crash.

Counterpoint:

3 charts showing that we’re not repeating the housing bubble: Morning Brief

What to watch in markets on Tuesday, September 27, 2022.

finance.yahoo.com

Thought this was an interesting chart. The Millennials doing most of the buying in the last few years have way better credit scores than the Gen Xers in the 00s did. I remember my managerial accounting prof remarking that she saw a big difference in credit card usage and responsibility between Gen X college students vs Millennials. I suspect that another big factor is Millennials weren't able to buy until a later age than previous generations.

Yeah 20% in the next 9 months seems very extreme. Inventory levels are just getting to the realm of normal.

Millenials also favor rent at a much higher percentage or at least used to. Not sure if that position has shifted as they've gotten older.

Would think we'd have to start seeing higher unemployment rates before the housing prices dropped too much.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]