Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[skersker]

I mean, that makes sense. 2008 wasn't an acute crisis, so surge trading was smoothed over 15-18 months...now, we have a Fed that is explicitly telling everyone they are starting to beat the brains out of markets and everyone should act accordingly(which, it seems like they are).

this cracks me up. since november 2021 the fed has LITERALLY told market participants exactly what they were gonna do. its been literal free money from a positioning standpoint.

 

[BingoDingo]

this cracks me up. since november 2021 the fed has LITERALLY told market participants exactly what they were gonna do. its been literal free money from a positioning standpoint.

Yuuup....with advanced warning too, lol. Yet there are still articles talking about market bottoms and rebound through EOY.

 

[skersker]

Yuuup....with advanced warning too, lol. Yet there are still articles talking about market bottoms and rebound through EOY.

yeah -- its hilarious. the other day kashkari from the fed said he was unhappy that the market bounced after fomc lmao. and then after the jackson hole meeting and when markets tanked he said he was delighted to see what the markets reaction was.

you cant make it up how unusually direct theyve been about the direction of the market lmao

 

[Toe]

Yuuup....with advanced warning too, lol. Yet there are still articles talking about market bottoms and rebound through EOY.

Eh, I think of it as a 'the stock market is not the economy' thing. Sure, the economy still has plenty of room to fall. But the markets already jumped way out ahead of the economy, and arguably overcompensated. The two can reach bottom at very different times.

 

[BingoDingo]

Eh, I think of it as a 'the stock market is not the economy' thing. Sure, the economy still has plenty of room to fall. But the markets already jumped way out ahead of the economy, and arguably overcompensated. The two can reach bottom at very different times.

Yeah, I don't disagree on any of that, but I think it's pretty clear that the market hasn't priced in the type of levels that multiple Fed members have explicitly stated(sustained 4%+ fed funds) the past couple weeks. When Mester is basically going out and telling multiple outlets that cuts in 2023 are likely unrealistic, it seems to me a warning call on the equity side.

 

[BingoDingo]

Counterpoint:



@Faux Sean Callahan

 

[skersker]

Counterpoint:



@Faux Sean Callahan

She’s down so bad of course she said that though. Fed telling us the game plan for 2023. She puked her entire coinbase position only to watch it 2x from the lows. She’s angry lol

 

[skersker]

Plus it’s more stagflation to be worried about if they try to pivot.

 

[BingoDingo]

She’s down so bad of course she said that though. Fed telling us the game plan for 2023. She puked her entire coinbase position only to watch it 2x from the lows. She’s angry lol

It's incredible to watch her work...

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Counterpoint:



@Faux Sean Callahan

 

[Toe]

When Mester is basically going out and telling multiple outlets that cuts in 2023 are likely unrealistic, it seems to me a warning call on the equity side.

It's probably the right move by the Fed, though. Part of the reason things got so out of hand during the 70s is because the Fed kept fishtailing. They'd raise rates, then turn around and cut them the moment the economy turned downward, then inflation would spike again and they'd be right back where they started. It can be painful, but the Fed needs to be steady and resolute.

Of course, the Fed can't do much of anything about foreign supply chain issues...

 

[Jim14510]

Counterpoint:



@Faux Sean Callahan

Are they over compensating for looking back and going.. man we really fucked up not increasing rates 5-10 years ago?

 

[Jim14510]

It's probably the right move by the Fed, though. Part of the reason things got so out of hand during the 70s is because the Fed kept fishtailing. They'd raise rates, then turn around and cut them the moment the economy turned downward, then inflation would spike again and they'd be right back where they started. It can be painful, but the Fed needs to be steady and resolute.

Of course, the Fed can't do much of anything about foreign supply chain issues...

They always seem 2 to 10 steps behind. Politicians always trying to save their short term positions.

 

[skersker]

lmao they make it too easy to position

 

[skersker]

Are they over compensating for looking back and going.. man we really fucked up not increasing rates 5-10 years ago?

QE is basically like a steroid cycle, inflate the market with backstop of liquidity for 8 years straight, and then hyper inflate it during covid. now that QE is ended its like the end of a steroid cycle, theres no way to keep the market (your body) in the same shape without going back to it

 

[BingoDingo]

Are they over compensating for looking back and going.. man we really fucked up not increasing rates 5-10 years ago?

I mean, outside of maybe 2018, I'm not sure there is a good argument for any meaningful increased rates from 2012-2018. Either way, I don't think the decisions over the past 6-9 months have had anything to do with pre-pandemic policy.

 

[LoudHogRider]

Cot dam ... what a day!

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

 

[Jay Bilzerian]

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]