Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[Toe]

Meanwhile in the Fox News world...

 

[Toe]

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Meanwhile in China

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Meanwhile in the Fox News world...

The labor problem is on the participation side.

We are just now getting back to the low end of where we have been for the last 50 years in terms of labor participation.

I know from working with my clients that nobody can find help. I know some are very good jobs too for the area.

"Crisis" is cable news hyperbole, but it is a real problem.

 

[Jay Bilzerian]

The labor problem is on the participation side.

We are just now getting back to the low end of where we have been for the last 50 years in terms of labor participation.

I know from working with my clients that nobody can find help. I know some are very good jobs too for the area.

"Crisis" is cable news hyperbole, but it is a real problem.

A related problem is that many companies are struggling to retain talent. It’s never been better in terms of pay raises and signing bonuses to change jobs.

 

[Toe]

A related problem is that many companies are struggling to retain talent. It’s never been better in terms of pay raises and signing bonuses to change jobs.

Plus American corporate culture doesn't care about career growth these days. Companies don't give a shit about your career, they just want a specific cog in the machine at the cheapest price they can get that cog for. Your 'career' only comes into the picture if they need a cog elsewhere.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

@God is a Husker CPI #

 

[BingoDingo]

@God is a Husker CPI #

Those food numbers are atrocious...oof.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Futures on the nasdaq changed by +2.5% on the news

 

[That SOB Van Owen]

I don’t understand how the democrats thought handing out literally trillions of dollars for free wouldn’t cause inflation.

 

[God is a Husker]

The labor problem is on the participation side.

We are just now getting back to the low end of where we have been for the last 50 years in terms of labor participation.

I know from working with my clients that nobody can find help. I know some are very good jobs too for the area.

"Crisis" is cable news hyperbole, but it is a real problem.

Yeah I found that to be a strange argument as well. I can tell you for a large portion of the country ranging from rural as fuck to mega cities have a major labor problem right now.

Everywhere is hiring, nobody can find good employees AND retain them, the McDonalds/Walmarts of the world are offering sign on bonuses and $15/hr in rural America (which is like $20+ in any city), combine that with the supply chain still being fucked and it’s no surprise so many small businesses are closing.


Caveat: Im just basing this on my personal business experiences in rural Nebraska, rural Kansas and rural Missouri and what I have been told by members of my family who own businesses in Lincoln/Omaha, KC, rural Texas, Houston, San Antonio, rural Alabama, Atlanta Georgia, Charleston South Carolina and north New Jersey.


Maybe it’s different west of the Rockies or in the Rust Belt or in the rest of the Northeast. I can’t imagine it would be different or cheaper for small businesses there since most of those places are union states, the states have more regulations, the states have higher taxes and most have higher state minimum wage laws.


PS: I also don’t understand trying to argue that there is no labor problem because it undercuts Liberal’s best argument for granting LPR status to illegal immigrants and/or defunding the border patrol or whatever else. A labor shortage is far and away the best argument in support of those positions.

 

[God is a Husker]

I don’t understand how the democrats thought handing out literally trillions of dollars for free wouldn’t cause inflation.

 

[jaihawk]

I just find it laughable that Biden's administration is trying to say that they are "creating jobs" when anyone, looking at the statistics, can see where employment numbers were before COVID and the shut-downs of businesses and then what happened when all of the shut-downs happened. The "jobs" being added aren't new jobs, they are just people going back to work as states started to relax their restrictions. We're still not back to where we were at the end of February (right before lockdowns happened.

At 2/29/20, we were at 158,866k jobs per BLS (right before COVID restrictions hit). On 4/30/20, we hit our low point for jobs, falling to 133,320k (a loss of 25,546k jobs or 16%). By the end of Tump's Presidency at 1/31/21, we were up to 150,004k jobs (an increase of 16,684k jobs or 13%). That means that under Trump, we recovered 17,047k of the 25,546k jobs that were lost or 67%.

Under Biden, through 06/30/22, we have added 8,107k jobs or an increase of 5%.

 

[BingoDingo]

I just find it laughable that Biden's administration is trying to say that they are "creating jobs" when anyone, looking at the statistics, can see where employment numbers were before COVID and the shut-downs of businesses and then what happened when all of the shut-downs happened. The "jobs" being added aren't new jobs, they are just people going back to work as states started to relax their restrictions. We're still not back to where we were at the end of February (right before lockdowns happened.

At 2/29/20, we were at 158,866k jobs per BLS (right before COVID restrictions hit). On 4/30/20, we hit our low point for jobs, falling to 133,320k (a loss of 25,546k jobs or 16%). By the end of Tump's Presidency at 1/31/21, we were up to 150,004k jobs (an increase of 16,684k jobs or 13%). That means that under Trump, we recovered 17,047k of the 25,546k jobs that were lost or 67%.

Under Biden, through 06/30/22, we have added 8,107k jobs or an increase of 5%.

View attachment 11801

I mean, to an extent, I guess. It's nearly all Leisure and Hospitality/Service jobs(and Government jobs, which...I mean...lol)...most sectors have recovered and have increased jobs above pre-pandemic numbers. Private Employment payrolls are actually above pre-pandemic numbers now.

It's pretty clear no one wants to work fast food or shitty service jobs anymore...will be interesting to see how those behaviors change when recession comes.

 

[jaihawk]

I mean, to an extent, I guess. It's nearly all Leisure and Hospitality/Service jobs(and Government jobs, which...I mean...lol)...most sectors have recovered and have increased jobs above pre-pandemic numbers. Private Employment payrolls are actually above pre-pandemic numbers now.

It's pretty clear no one wants to work fast food or shitty service jobs anymore...will be interesting to see how those behaviors change when recession comes.

And therein lies the rub with what they did with giving extra on the unemployment benefits. There were people that were working $15/hour jobs that were essentially getting $20-$25/hour with the extended unemployment benefits that they rolled out. Now those people have an overinflated value of what they are worth. It's insane. You're a dishwasher or a barista, you shouldn't be making $20/hour, but now you think that you should.

 

[BingoDingo]

And therein lies the rub with what they did with giving extra on the unemployment benefits. There were people that were working $15/hour jobs that were essentially getting $20-$25/hour with the extended unemployment benefits that they rolled out. Now those people have an overinflated value of what they are worth. It's insane. You're a dishwasher or a barista, you shouldn't be making $20/hour, but now you think that you should.

I mean, how do you explain the difference in L&H and Retail then? Both have similar wage levels and similar wage growth(L&H growing a bit more), both have very similar labor demographics, both sector's workers received significant pandemic assistance payments...yet L&H is -1.3 million jobs since the pandemic and Retail is +179k?

I honestly have no idea the impact pandemic assistance had on wage expectations...I would imagine there are a good sized amount of folks who are exactly that way, but I'm not sure that payments made 1-2 years ago has much of an impact today.

 

[jaihawk]

I mean, how do you explain the difference in L&H and Retail then? Both have similar wage levels and similar wage growth(L&H growing a bit more), both have very similar labor demographics, both sector's workers received significant pandemic assistance payments...yet L&H is -1.3 million jobs since the pandemic and Retail is +179k?

I honestly have no idea the impact pandemic assistance had on wage expectations...I would imagine there are a good sized amount of folks who are exactly that way, but I'm not sure that payments made 1-2 years ago has much of an impact today.

I don't think you can just boil it down to sectors, saying all L&H workers are the same. I think you have to dive deeper into where those L&H workers are. I'd love for you to share the detailed statistics with me, but I'd be willing to bet that a majority of those L&H workers that haven't gone back to work are located in California and New York.

 

[BingoDingo]

I don't think you can just boil it down to sectors, saying all L&H workers are the same. I think you have to dive deeper into where those L&H workers are. I'd love for you to share the detailed statistics with me, but I'd be willing to bet that a majority of those L&H workers that haven't gone back to work are located in California and New York.

I mean, sectoral analysis is a foundational aspect of labor economics...you absolutely can compare like cohort groups. You are absolutely right that the majority of those jobs probably do come from NY and California...but those two states have 20% of the labor force. California is positive in Retail Trade, but NY is still negative on both.

That still really doesn't address the previous question, I don't think. The recovery trend in regards to Retail Trade/L&H holds in almost all states...retail recovered and L&H didn't. In Nebraska, Retail employment is up +1.5% since the pandemic and L&H is down -5.4%...so even in non toot-sniffing States, this condition exists. This basically rules out both wage entitlement and ideologically driven behaviors, no?

SAE Home Page : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (State & Metro Area) Home Page

www.bls.gov

 

[BingoDingo]

Netflix! Account sharing restrictions are coming...

 

[God is a Husker]

I mean, sectoral analysis is a foundational aspect of labor economics...you absolutely can compare like cohort groups. You are absolutely right that the majority of those jobs probably do come from NY and California...but those two states have 20% of the labor force. California is positive in Retail Trade, but NY is still negative on both.

That still really doesn't address the previous question, I don't think. The recovery trend in regards to Retail Trade/L&H holds in almost all states...retail recovered and L&H didn't. In Nebraska, Retail employment is up +1.5% since the pandemic and L&H is down -5.4%...so even in non toot-sniffing States, this condition exists. This basically rules out both wage entitlement and ideologically driven behaviors, no?

SAE Home Page : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (State & Metro Area) Home Page

www.bls.gov

Retail been robbing employees from H&L here in Neb/KS.

The reason I mentioned WM in my earlier post is because I’ve lost 6 employees to Walmart over the past year.

3 of the employees said it was straight up pay (I was paying them $17.50 and $18/hour, I even offered 1 of them a $2 raise to help counter inflation concerns she had), the other 3 said it was WM having more schedule options than I can offer at a hotel. Ex: my shift needs are based on when customers checkout/checkin and laundry/cleaning rooms. I can’t offer 40 hours a week working 9-5.

That’s the rub of H&L work, the 2 times that you most need employees are 5-10 am & pm… but that’s when people usually have other responsibilities and/or don’t want to work.

Ironically I’m having the best employee luck right now by hiring my fellow millennials because as long as you got your list done and there isn’t a guest needing something I don’t give a fuck if they are on their phone or watch something on the iPad or smoke/vape outside, etc etc. One of the few things I can offer employees that WM and other big retailers can’t.