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Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread



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God is a Husker said:
Liberals are defending Biden so hard that they are currently arguing to live paycheck to paycheck, have no savings and stop complaining about prices being higher on everything cuz you’re a fat loser who doesn’t need that much milk or gas anyways.


It’s breathtaking
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Or Mayor Lightfoot from Chicago blaming the looting on the stores. It's incredible to watch.
 
Well, one advantage of inflation is that it makes debts easier to repay. Lock in a mortgage now at a comically low interest rate, and let inflation make your $500k loan feel more like a $300k loan. (Also: get a 30 year loan and don't worry much about a down payment. Instead, take that down payment money and invest it. With rates this low, you'll gain more from the investment than you'll lose to interest on the loan.)

History lesson. This was like the biggest political issue in America in the late 1800s. There was a major political movement in favor of tying the US dollar to a combination of gold and silver and allowing inflation to occur, easing the burden on farmers and such by making it easier to pay off their debts. Probably the most famous proponent of this was William Jennings Bryan, representative from Nebraska, candidate in 1896 presidential election (one of the most hotly contested in US history), and namesake of Bryan Hospital in Lincoln, which he donated the land for.
 
Toe said:
Well, one advantage of inflation is that it makes debts easier to repay. Lock in a mortgage now at a comically low interest rate, and let inflation make your $500k loan feel more like a $300k loan. (Also: get a 30 year loan and don't worry much about a down payment. Instead, take that down payment money and invest it. With rates this low, you'll gain more from the investment than you'll lose to interest on the loan.)

History lesson. This was like the biggest political issue in America in the late 1800s. There was a major political movement in favor of tying the US dollar to a combination of gold and silver and allowing inflation to occur, easing the burden on farmers and such by making it easier to pay off their debts. Probably the most famous proponent of this was William Jennings Bryan, representative from Nebraska, candidate in 1896 presidential election (one of the most hotly contested in US history), and namesake of Bryan Hospital in Lincoln, which he donated the land for.
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Fucking over the middle class and lower income Americans so the wealthy can more easily play real life monopoly isn't a winning economic policy.

Do not fall for the ponzi scheme of hyperinflation is good. (your example was 40%, that is hyperinflation)

Yes, inflation makes it hypothetically easier pay off fixed rate debt... but only IF the person's income also rises over the inflation rate and increased tax rate. (this has almost never been the case in similar historic hyperinflations)

It is also faulty logic to use examples like real property in a vacuum. So while it may on paper be easier to pay a monthly mortgage due to a fixed rate and principle getting eaten by hyperinflation, the same cannot be said for your home insurance, property taxes and any HOA monthly dues. Not to mention utility bills and other costs of living.


EXAMPLE: Home purchased at $500,000. --> Hyperinflation --> still owe the same amount on principle and fixed interest. "haha suckers! Inflation rulez!" --> county assessor says your home is $700,000 now --> insurance company has costs increase due to inflation plus your home is now worth $700k you need extra coverage --> your monthly internet bill is now $300, your cell phone bill is $500, etc etc --> to make yourself feel better you go buy a $30 6 pack of bud light and watch some Netflix at home since you're paying $50 a month for it.

--> Did your income increase with the 40% inflation? You must have been doing ok before inflation if you could afford at $500,000 home and now your income increased 40%? Good for you! You have likely jumped 1 or 2 tax brackets and now that 40% income increase you had will be taxed at 35% or 37%. So, to have inflation not hurt you, your income will have needed to increase by ~55%. (hope it did!)



fun little video on the topic

 
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Toe said:
Not 40% in a fucking year you moron, I meant over the life of the loan. 🤦‍♂️
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40% over 30 years? Thats far far below the US average. In the last 30 years it has been something like 125%.


40% total in 30 years is closer to Japan...who has had deflation. (1 of the few)



PS: I did not mean in a single year either but I certainly did not mean over 30 years. In my post I was thinking along the timeline of 2022/2023. I say this because if the Fed actually used the same accounting system we did prior to 2008 then inflation this year was between 12-15%. Combine that with the fact that roughly 50% of every dollar in existence was printed in the past year and it is not "crazy" to assume inflation in 2022 will at minimum remain the at the same rate. (cuz our boy Powell ain't stopping the printer go brrrrrrrrr)
 
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BingoDingo said:
What does that first chart even show? Are these higher/lower than estimates...is that what they consider a "data surprise"?

I didn't read either article, but I'm certainly not worried about inflation.
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BingoDingo said:
Yeah, the chart isn't actuals...it's basically estimates vs actuals. Inflation has been higher than expected, growth estimates lower than expected. Not really a meaningful chart at all...or at least not a perspective that we didn't already know.

Inflation discussion will largely subside in late '21 and probably be gone by midterms in '22. I doubt it will be a top 10 issue in midterms. 5-6% growth for '21 and 4.5-5% in '22 is probably not a number the GOP is going to be able to hammer Biden on, lol. They should just keep hammering him on Foreign Policy and Immigration and that should swing the House and Senate.
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