Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[jaihawk]

But at some point they have to go back to work for $15/hr. You know they didn't save the extra money. Is it just short lived that they saved up enough to coast for 3-6 months?

At some point in time they will be, but never underestimate the stubbornness of people that have gotten used to the Government providing everything for them (which was exactly what they were hoping by extending and extending this stuff). My wife used to ask me, why would the Democrats want to continue to keep businesses shut down and people out of work. It didn't take long for her to realize that if you got people addicted to the Government to meet their needs, then those people would never vote a Democrat out, for fear of losing what was provided to them.

 

[BingoDingo]

Not following. So Midwest (broad term that's really just Omaha area to me) is having labor shortages but not limited to low end jobs. Wages isn't the issue because they're offering higher wages and still having shortages.

Outside Midwest you're saying labor shortages are limited to low end jobs and our paying higher wages here is abnormal. Outside of my small world still could be not paying enough. A lot of the coasts/Illinois still have rent moratoriums. So no idea what the bigger issue is there.

What is the issue here? It's not unemployment benefits, it's not low paying, it's not rent moratoriums. Wtf?

Jim, I have no idea what you're talking about. McDonald's offering $18.50 an hour is likely a new increase meant to attract new hiring as a result of folks not wanting to work at these shitty jobs. I highly doubt McDonald's was paying people almost $20 bucks an hour even 3 months ago...so the idea that "pay is high and we still have labor shortages" isn't really something we can gauge as of yet. Additionally, one employer offering higher wages doesn't mean you're going to resolve all the regions labor issues, especially since I can almost guarantee no other place is even close to matching those McDonald's wages. Low wage, low quality work everywhere is having hiring issues...hence why we stated that companies need to increase wages to attract more workers, which they clearly are by your example at McDonald's.

There are only like 5 states that still have rent moratoriums in place, so I'm not sure what impact you're saying that has. I didn't even reference those as an underlying problem in regards to hiring.

The issue here is that employment behavior changed during the pandemic and folks decided they weren't going to go work fast food for digging ditches for $10-12 bucks an hour... especially when there are flexible alternatives that pay ~30% more(Uber, Lyft, DoorDash for example). The reason behind those changes in behavior...I don't know, but the fact is low wage workers are demanding more wages to take those jobs and employers are going to have to do what McDonald's is doing in order to meet their hiring demands.

 

[vailhusker]

PS PS: not trying to fight or w/e, just honestly wonder what you guys think a fair wage would be for a house keeper. My in laws all grew up in a 3rd world country (India and Africa) and my wife moved to the USA from Africa when she was 14. Trust me, we all empathize with our employees and treat them very well. I’d say my in laws provide food for the staff at least 3 times a week, usually more. I personally feel that we pay very well and above market. (hotel industry)

You are matching if not beating wages for the same positions in Vail, Beaver Creek, and Moab resorts. To be fair though Vail Resorts for instance offers benefits like a free ski pass, housing assistance (if available), discounts to other Vail Resort properties and business, etc with their employment. Front Desk Agents also can receive a Concierge commissions when booking certain items. There are plenty of good paying jobs here but, the biggest problem is affordable housing which has always been a problem since I moved here in the early 2000s but has continued to get worse. The popularity of Airbnbs, have also decreased housing in the area because now instead of renting long term to some possible employees they can rent short term and make more money which is great for the property owners and the guests who stay there, but not for the employees trying to find places to live. As for trying to buy a property the prices were very expensive to begin with and now there are investors buying up properties for even more unreal prices and using then for Airbnbs or just for a investment and it sets empty. If you can find anywhere to rent it is usually $1200 to $1500 per bedroom, which not too long ago would get you a decent 2 bedroom apartment. In August I looked up available Airbnbs for a different couple weeks in September and there were over 300 places available which is 300 places not available for any long term renters. The towns have made some effort over the years to build more affordable housing but it never was enough for the amount of employees needed, so it has always been battle to get employees. Also we have a very transit workforce who might be here for one season and not the next which also compounds the problem. I remember talking to some of my peers around town saying we could start people off at $25 dollars an hour but it wouldn't matter because there was never enough people to go around for all the different business.

 

[God is a Husker]

Everybody ITT just needs to calm down and have a drink


Just put my son to bed and drinking wild Turkey 101 and cherry coke (high class) while I watch Rounders.


forgot how great the back and forth of:

“hey can I ask you a legal question? Can Steinbrenner just move the Yankees?”

“How would I know that?”

“Oh… you ain’t learned that yet?”

 

[Jim14510]

Jim, I have no idea what you're talking about. McDonald's offering $18.50 an hour is likely a new increase meant to attract new hiring as a result of folks not wanting to work at these shitty jobs. I highly doubt McDonald's was paying people almost $20 bucks an hour even 3 months ago...so the idea that "pay is high and we still have labor shortages" isn't really something we can gauge as of yet. Additionally, one employer offering higher wages doesn't mean you're going to resolve all the regions labor issues, especially since I can almost guarantee no other place is even close to matching those McDonald's wages. Low wage, low quality work everywhere is having hiring issues...hence why we stated that companies need to increase wages to attract more workers, which they clearly are by your example at McDonald's.

There are only like 5 states that still have rent moratoriums in place, so I'm not sure what impact you're saying that has. I didn't even reference those as an underlying problem in regards to hiring.

The issue here is that employment behavior changed during the pandemic and folks decided they weren't going to go work fast food for digging ditches for $10-12 bucks an hour... especially when there are flexible alternatives that pay ~30% more(Uber, Lyft, DoorDash for example). The reason behind those changes in behavior...I don't know, but the fact is low wage workers are demanding more wages to take those jobs and employers are going to have to do what McDonald's is doing in order to meet their hiring demands.

I'm telling you I don't get it. It's been 6 months here. Culver's owner went to $17 back in March. Big lawn service started increasing wages last fall. Up $3-4/hour. McDonalds signs have been up for months. Tortilla factory is up 20% in wages on the year and still shorthanded. Especially their Chicago factory.

You're telling me that that these people that have lived paycheck to paycheck are so flush with cash that 1-3 months after getting off unemployment that they can afford to sit back and say...I'm not going to work for $12/hour. I can't see it. I can see it in states that have the rent moratorium or just waiting on being evicted because that's 3/4 of their typical outflow. Is it just the timing and they'll be back to work in another month or two?

 

[BingoDingo]

I'm telling you I don't get it. It's been 6 months here. Culver's owner went to $17 back in March. Big lawn service started increasing wages last fall. Up $3-4/hour. McDonalds signs have been up for months. Tortilla factory is up 20% in wages on the year and still shorthanded. Especially their Chicago factory.

You're telling me that that these people that have lived paycheck to paycheck are so flush with cash that 1-3 months after getting off unemployment that they can afford to sit back and say...I'm not going to work for $12/hour. I can't see it. I can see it in states that have the rent moratorium or just waiting on being evicted because that's 3/4 of their typical outflow. Is it just the timing and they'll be back to work in another month or two?

There were 4.69 million fast food employees in the US pre-pandemic...there is currently 4.59 million. We are only short 100k workers...it's not like we have a couple million deadbeats sitting at home doing nothing. It's pretty clear to me what has happened...food delivery services have nearly tripled the amount of delivery drivers in the past year and a half. DoorDash alone went from 350k drivers to 1.1 million active drivers since the pandemic started. We have over 3 million people actively delivering food on DoorDash, GrubHub, UberEats, etc...Those low wage fast food workers have transitioned to a more flexible, higher paying way to make money.

if fast food/restaurants want to get those people back, they are gonna have to go the McDonald's route and pay people much more. Per BLS, wages for Leisure and Hospitality have gone up about 10% in the past year...about $1.75. Average fast food worker is still only making just under $11 bucks an hour.

 

[Jim14510]

There were 4.69 million fast food employees in the US pre-pandemic...there is currently 4.59 million. We are only short 100k workers...it's not like we have a couple million deadbeats sitting at home doing nothing. It's pretty clear to me what has happened...food delivery services have nearly tripled the amount of delivery drivers in the past year and a half. DoorDash alone went from 350k drivers to 1.1 million active drivers since the pandemic started. We have over 3 million people actively delivering food on DoorDash, GrubHub, UberEats, etc...Those low wage fast food workers have transitioned to a more flexible, higher paying way to make money.

if fast food/restaurants want to get those people back, they are gonna have to go the McDonald's route and pay people much more. Per BLS, wages for Leisure and Hospitality have gone up about 10% in the past year...about $1.75. Average fast food worker is still only making just under $11 bucks an hour.

That would definitely explain fast food. What about the rest? Manual labor, manufacturing, grocery stores, etc? Thanks for doing this research for me. You're like my assistant.

 

[BingoDingo]

That would definitely explain fast food. What about the rest? Manual labor, manufacturing, grocery stores, etc? Thanks for doing this research for me. You're like my assistant.

Lol. No idea on manual labor...my dad's a foreman and has been complaining about finding laborers for years now. Is it that bad right now? Grocers actually didn't lose jobs during the pandemic...they actually gained ~50k workers, but their pay is dogshit, so you know the rules. Manufacturing actually probably has a pretty significant shortage, but it's been that way for the past decade...older workers aging out of work while younger workers definitely don't want to do that hard work.

 

[God is a Husker]

Lol. No idea on manual labor...my dad's a foreman and has been complaining about finding laborers for years now. Is it that bad right now? Grocers actually didn't lose jobs during the pandemic...they actually gained ~50k workers, but their pay is dogshit, so you know the rules. Manufacturing actually probably has a pretty significant shortage, but it's been that way for the past decade...older workers aging out of work while younger workers definitely don't want to do that hard work.

I don't know a single restaurant (fast food or sit down) or a single grocery store that doesn't have drastically reduced hours (and options) due to insane staffing shortages.




where do you live man? I travel all the time in NE and KS and its the same everywhere I go (literally everywhere and there is nothing in common between Bellevue and St Francis KS except lots of white people)

quick map radius of my area and I travel more than once a week to random places in this area

 

[BingoDingo]

I don't know a single restaurant (fast food or sit down) or a single grocery store that doesn't have drastically reduced hours (and options) due to insane staffing shortages.




where do you live man? I travel all the time in NE and KS and its the same everywhere I go (literally everywhere and there is nothing in common between Bellevue and St Francis KS except lots of white people)

quick map radius of my area and I travel more than once a week to random places in this area

Yeah, I live in the PHX Metro and haven't seen any reduced hours anywhere, but big city and lost of labor so...

 

[God is a Husker]

Yeah, I live in the PHX Metro and haven't seen any reduced hours anywhere, but big city and lost of labor so...

In laws in ATL and NJ are having the same issue as us. The one in NJ is thinking about selling everything and moving cuz the State is so fucked for small business now.

I guess you’re just lucky out in AZ for having a cool Dem senator and good employees.

 

[ChocaEgg]

Gonna be a hard sell for the “blame everything economy related on defense spending” crowd when the fucking interest we owe is going to be about even with total defense spending no matter what happens with this bill. If Uncle Joe gets his 5 Trillion dollar spending spree the interest in 2022 will be more than our total defense spending in 2022.

Amazing

We need the boomers to start disappearing faster. Social Security & Medicare are killing us.

 

[LoudHogRider]

We need the boomers to start disappearing faster. Social Security & Medicare are killing us.

 

[jaihawk]

We need the boomers to start disappearing faster. Social Security & Medicare are killing us.

Outside of the people getting their pockets lined, I have never understood why Social Security wasn't turned into something more like a 401k and less like a pension. It's just not sustainable to guarantee a particular monthly retirement amount to someone. The Government, just like a business, shouldn't shoulder all of the risk.

 

[God is a Husker]

Well known alt right media company CNN is trying to smear Brandon’s good name.

Nothing to see here folks. It’s going great. Ice cream for Nancy and Brandon.

 

[God is a Husker]

Outside of the people getting their pockets lined, I have never understood why Social Security wasn't turned into something more like a 401k and less like a pension. It's just not sustainable to guarantee a particular monthly retirement amount to someone. The Government, just like a business, shouldn't shoulder all of the risk.

You are arguing that thought, logic, pragmatism and realistic expectations of human nature should have been used when drafting and voting on the massive socialist bills in 1965.

They were too busy pretending like LBJ wasn’t treating Vietnam like he was playing toy soldiers in his basement.

(Literally had replicas of Khe Sanh and other major battles in the White House and he would personally call to have a bunker or Fox hole moved in real life based on his analysis of looking at the toy model…. the Jerry Jones of POTUS history)

 

[BingoDingo]

Well known alt right media company CNN is trying to smear Brandon’s good name.

Nothing to see here folks. It’s going great. Ice cream for Nancy and Brandon.

What do you think Biden and Nancy should do to fix these issues?

 

[LoudHogRider]

What do you think Biden and Nancy should do to fix these issues?

I mean … it’s just an idea.

 

[God is a Husker]

What do you think Biden and Nancy should do to fix these issues?

Major Psaki energy bruh


You seriously asking?

For starters:

- stop with this bullshit vaccine mandate, --> vaccination helps the vaccinated survive Covid, it doesn't stop them from getting Covid or spreading it. Why is proof of vaccine superior than a negative covid test? Answer: its not, it makes no sense because it isn't meant to make sense. The mandate is meant to be the stick that gets the unvaccinated to want to vaccinate. End it because according to literally every scientific study/definition ever the USA has reached herd immunity with vaccines and thats not even including the unvaccinated who have natural immunity via previous infection. The mandate is insane right now, it would have made sense in early Spring but now its overkill.

- get the ports opened again, ending the mandate and telling Newsom to get his shit together (remind him that he owes you one for helping him stay Gov)

- get all schools opened fully again, how the fuck can the economy return when tons of places have schools still shut down OR have schools randomly shutting down for days or weeks at a time. Kids under 18 have a better chance of getting raped by Catholic priest whilst getting hit by a car than dying from Covid

- allow fracking again, JESUS christ how do people not understand this is literally the best thing we have right now re: oil/gas. Until you can have some realistic alternative there is no reason to ban fracking. Importing oil/gas is better? Nord Stream 2 being a mega pipeline/political gun to the head of western Europe is ok but fracking in North Dakota is terrible? What the fuck are we even talking about.

- allow for oil/gas leases on Fed land again (like we always have since most of the oil ground in the US is under federal land/water)

- either end the faux Climate shit that is blocking tons of industry OR if you really do believe the earth is melting at “alarming” levels fucking finally do something about it like Obama did and cut those checks for credits to build wind and/or tell the animal rights people to shove it up their ass and allow for hydro projects again and then tell the Greens to shove it up their ass and build Nuclear power plants again (France is 80% in a country smaller than Texas, it’s not Chernobyl 24/7) right now Biden says he wants 0 emissions and is banning oil/gas but isn’t doing anything to build renewables to meet the demand that he is creating

- if you want your 30 in 30 plan just give a bigger carrot (higher CRP per acre prices and no cap on number of acres) you will probably be able to get damn close to the 30% target without having to ever use a stick. Biden can literally today order the USDA to increase CRP payments and end the acre cap = tomorrow he would have thousands of land owners signing up thousands of acres into CRP.

- stop lying about nobody under $400,000 will have their taxes go up, we all know this isn’t true based on the tiny bits of information released. Billionaires and mega corporations paying their fair share? Why not have the Corp tax revert to 35% why not have more tax brackets instead of stopping at 523,000? Why are you mandating reporting for every transaction over $600? Time and energy will be wasted collecting this MASSIVE amount of data that the IRS doesn’t need. Stop with the bullshit saying you are going to tax unrealized gains. No, no you will not be doing that because it would literally end the US economy overnight. Bezos/Buffet/Musk/etc having to pay unrealized gains on their wealth would mean they would have to sell at a level that would tank their stock price and domino the economy. It’s beyond silly, I can only assume those who discuss it have no idea what they are talking about. Biden needs to just increase corporate tax (if you’re a C-Corp in 2021, you’re a big boy, Everybody else is S or LLC) and have more brackets. Biden needs to stop with the faux “ima tax wealth” 6th grade tax analysis because the current ambiguity on what the future of the tax code is = business and people don’t know what to expect. Just come out with a real plan and make it public.



These are just off the top of my head and purely economic and domestic. Foreign policy wise I could go on for pages.



*** all of these things Biden can do by himself without Nancy or Chuck



PS: I don’t think any of these are unreasonable and many (renewables, conservation) are politically aligned with Biden.

 

[Jim14510]

Why are you mandating reporting for every transaction over $600? Time and energy will be wasted collecting this MASSIVE amount of data that the IRS doesn’t need.

The amount of tax gained would be dwarfed by the cost. There's so little tax being avoided through illegitimate means.

Stop with the bullshit saying you are going to tax unrealized gains.

Could not agree more. It's not going to happen. Quit pandering to the idiots that think it's a good idea