Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[Toe]

Pretty much just the battle in the mind at this point. Gotta snuff out that expectation of inflation that can turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Fed’s Inflation Battle Hinges on Convincing Americans Price Hikes Are Done - Bloomberg

https://archive.is/uxrid

 

[LoudHogRider]

Pretty much just the battle in the mind at this point. Gotta snuff out that expectation of inflation that can turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Fed’s Inflation Battle Hinges on Convincing Americans Price Hikes Are Done - Bloomberg

https://archive.is/uxrid

Price nostalgia. The label itself pisses me off. A simple trip to the grocery store doesn’t make you nostalgic for 2020 prices, it 1) pisses you off, and 2) makes you wonder how less fortunate folks with families can afford a trip to get groceries.

Start including things that American consumers actually purchase regularly and you’ll see we’re a long way from having inflation whipped.

I’ll be pleased but surprised if we see a rate cut in the first half of this year. There’s a chance we won’t see one at all, IMO.

 

[cwessel76]

Price nostalgia. The label itself pisses me off. A simple trip to the grocery store doesn’t make you nostalgic for 2020 prices, it 1) pisses you off, and 2) makes you wonder how less fortunate folks with families can afford a trip to get groceries.

Start including things that American consumers actually purchase regularly and you’ll see we’re a long way from having inflation whipped.

I’ll be pleased but surprised if we see a rate cut in the first half of this year. There’s a chance we won’t see one at all, IMO.

Thank your friendly large business for a sizeable chunk of inflation.

‘Greedflation’ caused more than half of last year’s inflation surge, study finds, as corporate profits remain at all-time highs | Fortune

Groundwork Collective crunched Commerce Department data to find shocking greedflation results. But there’s evidence of it in a lot more places.

fortune.com

 

[Jim14510]

Thank your friendly large business for a sizeable chunk of inflation.

‘Greedflation’ caused more than half of last year’s inflation surge, study finds, as corporate profits remain at all-time highs | Fortune

Groundwork Collective crunched Commerce Department data to find shocking greedflation results. But there’s evidence of it in a lot more places.

fortune.com

Don't fall for that bullshit.

 

[cwessel76]

Don't fall for that bullshit.

Explain por favor.

 

[Jim14510]

Explain por favor.

What do you charge for your services?

 

[cwessel76]

What do you charge for your services?

Not enough

 

[Jim14510]

Not enough

How much is a pair of shoes worth?

 

[LoudHogRider]

How much is a pair of shoes worth?

Whatever the market will bear.

 

[Pepe Silvia]

Price nostalgia. The label itself pisses me off. A simple trip to the grocery store doesn’t make you nostalgic for 2020 prices, it 1) pisses you off, and 2) makes you wonder how less fortunate folks with families can afford a trip to get groceries.

Start including things that American consumers actually purchase regularly and you’ll see we’re a long way from having inflation whipped.

I’ll be pleased but surprised if we see a rate cut in the first half of this year. There’s a chance we won’t see one at all, IMO.

"But if you exclude food, energy, and housing inflation is basically zero.". - Paul Krugman, nobel prize-winning economist

 

[cwessel76]

How much is a pair of shoes worth?

I know how inflation works, thanks.

If you don’t think that any company who has a competitive advantage in their market won’t take advantage of rising inflation to further increase their prices you are being silly yourself.

 

[cwessel76]

"But if you exclude food, energy, and housing inflation is basically zero.". - Paul Krugman, nobel prize-winning economist

Core inflation was a 2%, which is what the Fed wants.

The headline rate was 1.7%.

 

[BingoDingo]

Thank your friendly large business for a sizeable chunk of inflation.

‘Greedflation’ caused more than half of last year’s inflation surge, study finds, as corporate profits remain at all-time highs | Fortune

Groundwork Collective crunched Commerce Department data to find shocking greedflation results. But there’s evidence of it in a lot more places.

fortune.com

Control for Oil and Rents and that goes away. Even looking at pre-covid trends...there is absolutely no way 53% of the 2023 CPI is due to after-tax profits. It's really bad analysis and using after-tax profits and aggregate labor cost index to derive the inference of explained variance when the underlying variable is a byproduct of dependent environment is...uh, well...you're not going to get an answer. Formal tests absolutely wreck their analysis. Just a intuitive check - simply applying pre-Covid weights/controlling for Oil/Rents/Population - after-tax variance isn't even a significant driver of the variance in inflation...it's all Oil(and a bit of Rents) variance, friendo.

 

[cwessel76]

Control for Oil and Rents and that goes away. Even looking at pre-covid trends...there is absolutely no way 53% of the 2023 CPI is due to after-tax profits. It's really bad analysis and using after-tax profits and aggregate labor cost index to derive the inference of explained variance when the underlying variable is a byproduct of dependent environment is...uh, well...you're not going to get an answer. Formal tests absolutely wreck their analysis. Just a intuitive check - simply applying pre-Covid weights/controlling for Oil/Rents/Population - after-tax variance isn't even a significant driver of the variance in inflation...it's all Oil(and a bit of Rents) variance, friendo.

View attachment 33151

 

[Toe]

This could get bumpy...

China Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate. The real estate giant owes over $300 billion

A Hong Kong court has ordered China Evergrande, the world’s most heavily indebted real estate developer, to be liquidated following a failed effort to restructure $300 billion owed to banks and bondholders that fueled fears about China’s rising debt burden.

apnews.com

 

[BingoDingo]

This could get bumpy...

China Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate. The real estate giant owes over $300 billion

A Hong Kong court has ordered China Evergrande, the world’s most heavily indebted real estate developer, to be liquidated following a failed effort to restructure $300 billion owed to banks and bondholders that fueled fears about China’s rising debt burden.

apnews.com

Feels like everyone should have been hedged on that for over a year now...that's a massive, massive failure.

 

[Jim14510]

Whatever the market will bear.

Ding ding ding

Bottom line since the beginning of time the seller sells for as high a price as possible and the buyer pays the least amount possible.

To say inflation is because the seller is selling for too high of a price is like saying inflation is because of inflation.

There's reasons the corps could sell at a higher price. Demand (covid issues), money supply, wage increases, etc. The corps selling at a higher price because the corps raised the price isn't a reason. It's a result.

 

[Jim14510]

Control for Oil and Rents and that goes away. Even looking at pre-covid trends...there is absolutely no way 53% of the 2023 CPI is due to after-tax profits. It's really bad analysis and using after-tax profits and aggregate labor cost index to derive the inference of explained variance when the underlying variable is a byproduct of dependent environment is...uh, well...you're not going to get an answer. Formal tests absolutely wreck their analysis. Just a intuitive check - simply applying pre-Covid weights/controlling for Oil/Rents/Population - after-tax variance isn't even a significant driver of the variance in inflation...it's all Oil(and a bit of Rents) variance, friendo.

View attachment 33151

I think my explanation is simpler but that's a better explanation of the underlying causes.

 

[KidsSeeGhosts]

Ding ding ding

Bottom line since the beginning of time the seller sells for as high a price as possible and the buyer pays the least amount possible.

To say inflation is because the seller is selling for too high of a price is like saying inflation is because of inflation.

There's reasons the corps could sell at a higher price. Demand (covid issues), money supply, wage increases, etc. The corps selling at a higher price because the corps raised the price isn't a reason. It's a result.

Kind of asking and answering different questions though. I would love to see the author's math b/c I don't know how you possibly begin to isolate corporate profits as a variable. More compelling point IMO is inflation in production expenses is quite a bit lower than the inflation in ultimate consumer costs.

 

[Jim14510]

Kind of asking and answering different questions though. I would love to see the author's math b/c I don't know how you possibly begin to isolate corporate profits as a variable. More compelling point IMO is inflation in production expenses is quite a bit lower than the inflation in ultimate consumer costs.

I'm not trying to specify what the reasons behind inflation are. I think @BingoDingo probably has it summarized as well as you can from a birds eye view and in a couple of paragraphs.

I'm just arguing that corporate profits are not a cause of inflation. They're a result.