Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[BingoDingo]

Nice...

 

[HuskerDocCo]

ill go stick my money in some scratchers FARRTTTT

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Did some profit taking this morning...

 

[BingoDingo]

Do we start talking soft landing yet? Seems like spreads are still absurd and there are significant problems in commercial RE, but damn... inflation is within bounds, wages outpacing inflation, and employment is solid? Does anyone even project Recessionary trends in 23 anymore? Bizarro World.

 

[Toe]

Not much in the way of signs that consumer spending is slowing, either (though there's definitely some 'shifting'). But yeah, commercial real estate seems like the biggest threat to me at the moment. Hard to say how big that bomb will be, and when.

 

[BingoDingo]

Check this shit out...

777 Grand Ave SUITE 204, San Rafael, CA 94901 | Zillow

777 Grand Ave Suite 204, San Rafael CA, is a Condo home that contains 1066 sq ft and was built in 1988.It contains 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom.This home last sold for $440,000 in November 2023. The Zestimate for this Condo is $445,000, which has increased by $5,645 in the last 30 days.The Rent...

www.zillow.com

 

[HughJanus]

Check this shit out...

777 Grand Ave SUITE 204, San Rafael, CA 94901 | Zillow

777 Grand Ave Suite 204, San Rafael CA, is a Condo home that contains 1066 sq ft and was built in 1988.It contains 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom.This home last sold for $440,000 in November 2023. The Zestimate for this Condo is $445,000, which has increased by $5,645 in the last 30 days.The Rent...

www.zillow.com

"Mixed-Use"

 

[Toe]

Check this shit out...

777 Grand Ave SUITE 204, San Rafael, CA 94901 | Zillow

777 Grand Ave Suite 204, San Rafael CA, is a Condo home that contains 1066 sq ft and was built in 1988.It contains 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom.This home last sold for $440,000 in November 2023. The Zestimate for this Condo is $445,000, which has increased by $5,645 in the last 30 days.The Rent...

www.zillow.com

Why work from home when you can home from work?

 

[Toe]

Another train of thought that probably has some degree of truth to it is that consumer spending is still being propped up by leftover pandemic stimulus money. Reading through this article, apparently some 'experts' are predicting a rather abrupt end to that? Barring a shock of some sort, I'm not really seeing any reason to think there would be a clearly defined end to it, just a slow tapering off.

Of course, as the end of the article notes, some were predicting that a consumer recession would hit by the end of last year. At some point you gotta call out the boy who cried 'recession', right?

‘YOLO’ spenders are propping up the economy, says Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel—but they’re about to run out of cash

“Once a weakening in the economy kicks in, it could come fast.”

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Pepe Silvia]

 

[BingoDingo]

Another train of thought that probably has some degree of truth to it is that consumer spending is still being propped up by leftover pandemic stimulus money. Reading through this article, apparently some 'experts' are predicting a rather abrupt end to that? Barring a shock of some sort, I'm not really seeing any reason to think there would be a clearly defined end to it, just a slow tapering off.

Of course, as the end of the article notes, some were predicting that a consumer recession would hit by the end of last year. At some point you gotta call out the boy who cried 'recession', right?

‘YOLO’ spenders are propping up the economy, says Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel—but they’re about to run out of cash

“Once a weakening in the economy kicks in, it could come fast.”

finance.yahoo.com

Consumer spending saved us. I think this argument made sense in January...but it's strange we keep hearing talk about this as both real disposable income and personal savings have started increasing again. It seems sort of a stretch to think consumers would somehow, in an environment with solid job growth and growing real wages, spend an additional 4-500 billion on top of their elevated spending in Q3/4? Or even worse...that consumer spending will now magically disappear, leading to the elimination of the excess savings? Idk.

 

[Jim14510]

real disposable income and personal savings have started increasing again.

Really quite amazing after inflation.

I'm not sure how there could still be stimulus money sitting there.

 

[BingoDingo]

Really quite amazing after inflation.

I'm not sure how there could still be stimulus money sitting there.

It really is.

The Rise and Fall of Pandemic Excess Savings - San Francisco Fed

U.S. households built up savings at unprecedented rates following the strong fiscal response and lower consumer spending related to the pandemic. Despite recent rapid drawdowns of those funds, estimates suggest a substantial stock of excess savings remains in the aggregate economy. Since 2020...

www.frbsf.org

When you give stimulus to people who don't need it, they simply save it... forever.

 

[dsbigred1]

It really is.

The Rise and Fall of Pandemic Excess Savings - San Francisco Fed

U.S. households built up savings at unprecedented rates following the strong fiscal response and lower consumer spending related to the pandemic. Despite recent rapid drawdowns of those funds, estimates suggest a substantial stock of excess savings remains in the aggregate economy. Since 2020...

www.frbsf.org

When you give stimulus to people who don't need it, they simply save it... forever.

Invested all my stim money in porcupine furs. Gonna market them as theft deterrent coats. They’ll take off when shit hits the fan. 🤞

 

[Jim14510]

It really is.

The Rise and Fall of Pandemic Excess Savings - San Francisco Fed

U.S. households built up savings at unprecedented rates following the strong fiscal response and lower consumer spending related to the pandemic. Despite recent rapid drawdowns of those funds, estimates suggest a substantial stock of excess savings remains in the aggregate economy. Since 2020...

www.frbsf.org

When you give stimulus to people who don't need it, they simply spend it on stupid shit they don't need.

FIFY maybe?

I would think there are more of these people than people saving it forever.

 

[BingoDingo]

Also, can we finally look back and see what the Fed/Govt actually did during the economic crisis..they traded inflation for unemployment and nominal growth by inducing inflation by subsidizing the costs of inflation. It's madness/brilliant...and if the US averts a Recession while Europe and Asia slide, the Treasury needs to introduce a new 100yr T-Bill and call it the Powell. Special use only, lmao.

 

[BingoDingo]

FIFY maybe?

I would think there are more of these people than people saving it forever.

There were...and those people drew down $1 trillion in excess savings in a matter of 9 months, lol. That's why we almost hit 6% real GDP. The rest has been drawn down simply by inflationary pressures. The last 400-500 billion is those who never should have received stimulus.

 

[Toe]

Also, can we finally look back and see what the Fed/Govt actually did during the economic crisis..they traded inflation for unemployment and nominal growth by inducing inflation by subsidizing the costs of inflation. It's madness/brilliant.

"Yeah that's, uhh, totally how we planned it! 😅" - Uncle Sam, probably

 

[BingoDingo]

"Yeah that's, uhh, totally how we planned it! 😅" - Uncle Sam, probably

The Fed: