Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[BingoDingo]

I took it as... If the fed pivots it likely means bad news is coming.

For example if they cut today it likely meant the banks are in bigger trouble than being let on.

I would be more curious about a similar chart for the 70's through 90's.

Federal Funds Effective Rate

View data of the Effective Federal Funds Rate, or the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans of funds.

fred.stlouisfed.org

If the Fed cuts, or signals cuts, it means bad news has already happened...which is why the chart showing Fed Funds against downturns is... unnecessary? Lol.

 

[BingoDingo]

before the bank failures less than 2 weeks ago the expectation was a .50% increase today. I could be wrong but raising .25% seems like they didn't want to to panic the markets by not raising and were afraid of more bank failures if they raised .50%.

they also softened the language about future rate increases indicating a pause is more likely now before they hit the terminal rate

looking at their rate projections they still don't show any indication of cuts in the near future, but I don't think anyone believes they will have the balls to stand pat if the economy tanks later this year

Powell seemed pretty forceful today in saying that there would not be cuts in '23...either he doesn't think there is any real systematic risk with the banks/credit, or he's basically telling everyone he's gonna fist them even if they don't want him to...

Given that the Fed has been transparent and extremely leading in their guidance, I'd think we are in for a good fisting maybe...

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Federal Funds Effective Rate

View data of the Effective Federal Funds Rate, or the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans of funds.

fred.stlouisfed.org

If the Fed cuts, or signals cuts, it means bad news has already happened...which is why the chart showing Fed Funds against downturns is... unnecessary? Lol.

I agree but there is also this thought going around on Twitter/the talking heads

 

[BingoDingo]

I agree but there is also this thought going around on Twitter/the talking heads

Yeah, that guy definitely thinks he's on to something...he's found out that during times of negative economic shocks, both the stock market and Fed Funds rate goes down, lol.

 

[skersker]

Yeah, that guy definitely thinks he's on to something...he's found out that during times of negative economic shocks, both the stock market and Fed Funds rate goes down, lol.

Gayed is a larp and a dipshit.

 

[BingoDingo]

Gayed is a larp and a dipshit.

Yeah, figured as much. If you Google his "investment group" and check out their 17a's, it makes his tweets much funnier.

 

[skersker]

Yeah, figured as much. If you Google his "investment group" and check out their 17a's, it makes his tweets much funnier.

He’s insufferable imo

 

[22*43*51]

 

[Toe]

Powell seemed pretty forceful today in saying that there would not be cuts in '23...either he doesn't think there is any real systematic risk with the banks/credit, or he's basically telling everyone he's gonna fist them even if they don't want him to...

Given that the Fed has been transparent and extremely leading in their guidance, I'd think we are in for a good fisting maybe...

Painful, but probably the right move in the long run.

 

[Toe]

Definitely been thinking about dumping my real estate fund for a while...

Commercial real estate is in trouble. A banking crisis will make it worse.

Property owners were already under pressure from rising rates and empty office space. The last thing they needed was a banking crisis.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[LoudHogRider]

It's on like Donkey Kong!

 

[Toe]

One of the world’s richest men knows why Silicon Valley Bank really failed: ‘People on iPhones’

Stephen Schwartzman, worth $42 billion and at the head of a firm managing almost $1 trillion, says social media is what doomed the bank.

finance.yahoo.com

“This crisis was caused by people on iPhones and other devices, hearing on social media that some bank might be in trouble,” Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman said in an interview with Bloomberg in Tokyo on Thursday. “They responded with huge withdrawals in a very short period of time, collapsing the bank.”

94% of SVB's depositors were above the FDIC's $250,000 insurance limit, but yeah, it was just a bunch of dudes on Twitter that are to blame for all of this, according to the CEO of an $89 billion company.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

 

[Huskersballz]

Anyone in ILS strategies? Good income play.

It keeps getting worse: Florida property insurance rates set to jump up to 60%

“It’s going to take 18 to 24 months for things to start to stabilize."

www.wftv.com

 

[HughJanus]

Anyone in ILS strategies? Good income play.

It keeps getting worse: Florida property insurance rates set to jump up to 60%

“It’s going to take 18 to 24 months for things to start to stabilize."

www.wftv.com

The saying goes, You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company sure fucking does.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

More words of wisdom

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

WWE was bought, but lettuce discuss Vince

 

[Jay Bilzerian]

Anyone in ILS strategies? Good income play.

It keeps getting worse: Florida property insurance rates set to jump up to 60%

“It’s going to take 18 to 24 months for things to start to stabilize."

www.wftv.com

Hope you’re not in that Stone Ridge fund a certain someone in Omaha was pushing hard last year

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]