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All of that is true and then you add on another 2 trillion and a very anti oil administration. How much worse did that make it?
Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread
- Thread starter That SOB Van Owen
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Commodities have mostly fallen in price over the last few months. Oil peaked in early June, lumber peaked in early march, ag largely peaked around May or June-ish, metals peaked around March-April.
Probably the biggest factor in inflation at this point is China's covid restrictions. They relaxed some this summer, but it's been up and down, and city by city as different areas deal with outbreaks. I think inflation here will continue to ease up some, but it's gonna remain elevated until China returns to normal and supplies and trade from them get back to normal levels. And there really ain't shit that the Fed or anyone else over here can do about that. The stuff that Dems passed recently might help return some production to the US, but if it does it's the kind of thing that'll take years to have significant impacts, not something that'll help the situation much in the near future.
Probably the biggest factor in inflation at this point is China's covid restrictions. They relaxed some this summer, but it's been up and down, and city by city as different areas deal with outbreaks. I think inflation here will continue to ease up some, but it's gonna remain elevated until China returns to normal and supplies and trade from them get back to normal levels. And there really ain't shit that the Fed or anyone else over here can do about that. The stuff that Dems passed recently might help return some production to the US, but if it does it's the kind of thing that'll take years to have significant impacts, not something that'll help the situation much in the near future.
BingoDingo
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Another "good" release:
are you trying to tell me this wouldnt have happened if trump was still president? bc if so, our discussion can stop here. regardless of the president and/or political policies, all of the economic choices that were made during covid are why we are at where we are.
its basic macro econ. historic cheap credit and demand way up. the fed has signaled what they were going to do to the market since last november with rate hikes and QT. its been pretty easy to see what was coming for about a year now.
BingoDingo
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So, I think anyone saying there wouldn't have been inflation if Trump won are not serious at all and should probably be ignored, but the direct stimulus payments in conjunction with savings rates certainly led to more inflation than the alternative. I haven't seen any worthwhile comparison analysis on it...but I'd imagine it's certainly not as much as Republicans think and much worse than the Democrats think, lol.
I'm still on the "Biden being mean to oil companies has had a marginal, almost insignificant impact on oil and gas prices" though.
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Didn't say it wouldn't happen. That's why my first sentence started with "all of that is true". I said the 3rd and the anti oil administration made it worse. How much better/different is it? I dunno. That was my rhetorical question. I thought it was stupid and unnecessary at the time and still do.
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I don't know how you can seriously disregard that. Obviously "Biden being mean to oil companies" is really the minor policy changes they've already made but more importantly the unknown of what they're going to do.
You don't think the prices coming back down had anything to do with the unknown becoming partially known in the inflation act?
BingoDingo
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Yeah, I mean...looking at those policy changes, they likely will impact future production levels, but I have yet to see any meaningful, causal impacts that have made really any meaningful, explained change to price over the past year. The drivers have been what they've always been.
No, I don't think the inflation bill(which doesn't impact inflation) has made any impact on anything yet...either directly or indirectly in regards to prices. Prices have been falling since mid June, so...
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Speculation of the unknown has no effect on gas prices? When the unknown becomes known or at least more known that doesn't have an effect?
BingoDingo
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I guess I'm not sure your position...are you saying that gas prices have come down because of information discovery that happened with the passing of the inflation bill last week?
I don't know what impact business clarity has on current or near term prices in this situation, but I wouldn't expect it to be a a very important component in explaining the variance in current prices.
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I mean it's not like the bill got passed and there was an email that went out that said go ahead and lower your regular by 30 cents. But yes. As the details of the bill became know there was less built in for the unknown of what build back better was going to mean for oil and gas companies. Thus some portion of the price decline.
Just like a year ago prices starting climbing partially for the same reason.
I'm obviously not saying this is the only reason for the increase and decrease but it does play a role in the pricing.
BingoDingo
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Yeah, I just don't see that. I don't think information discovery has had any impact on the fall since mid-June. If we wanted to analyze it in some statistical way to determine the impact and develop some discontinuity design, I would fully expect the explained variance on information discovery would be near zero. Longer term, sure...there is probably marginal impact to prices(and I'm sure that it's upward in regards to prices).
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Stumbled across another company....
Nice find. Cost per share might be a little much for me!
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Loving the thread right now boys.
On my 4th Bud heavy while my son plays in his baby pool, got this song playing over the speakers right now.
101 degrees and sunny but the Friday vibes are great
On my 4th Bud heavy while my son plays in his baby pool, got this song playing over the speakers right now.
101 degrees and sunny but the Friday vibes are great
BingoDingo
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PTO until the 29th...just picked up the deal of the day at my local dispensary (half ounce for fucking $35 bucks)...I'm going to brain space for the next week, boys...then landing in San Diego for a few days the week after. Feels damn good.
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Well it's OK if you wanna be wrong bud. I'm always open to discussing topics where I'm right and I don't have to support it with any empirical evidence at all.
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How are they even making money?
BingoDingo
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Jim, you're lucky I am not at my computer or I would be posting some charts that may or may not have been manipulated but probably have in order to prove my point on this.
BingoDingo
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So the guy was telling me a couple months back that they buy all this flower at bulk and then if it doesn't sell as it gets older, they have to basically sell it at close to cost. So their deals are basically the old shit that no one bought. I am not a heavy smoker and the mid and top tier weed fucks my brain, so it's perfect.
