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Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread
- Thread starter That SOB Van Owen
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Welcome to tPB!
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12M volume yesterday and almost 6M so far today
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4 cents per right now!
BOYS WE ARE GONNA BUY NEBRASKA THE BEST HUT HUT PLAYERS (and roids)
cc: @Faux Sean Callahan
Edit: all joking aside, I’m actually really pumped about this. I got 55,500 with a basis of .018. ($1,000) I’m debating on selling now and buying back after a dip. But also I don’t care that much and I’m lazy and I will probably forget about doing this after I get a phone call or something comes up and by the time I remember to sell it will already be back down. 🙁
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I picked up 20k when I read about it on here. A lithium focused company with a Pelosi on the board and the left’s obsession with green technology is maybe the most sound investment theory I’ve ever read - even if the company is fundamentally worthless. Here’s to hoping WSB gets enamored with this one.
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CryptoDickbutts Ethereum NFTs Surge 690% in Daily Sales Volume - Decrypt
The floor price of Series 3 CryptoDickButts climbed as prominent influencers shilled their Dickbutt bags and praised the CDB community.
decrypt.co
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Apparently 8.5% = 0%
DuckSker
RedSeaFarts=Sandalwood
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I'm going to fuck up the terminology but 8.5% annualized is correct. They're getting creative with the statistics, maybe comparing month to month to try to make it look like a victory. Pretty out of touch, IMO.
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I miss the old GOP that wasn’t so whiny bitch made. I don’t know how much month-to-month CPI matters, but that number is what it is.
It’s dumb to make macroeconomic trends partisan, esp when inflation is global.
DuckSker
RedSeaFarts=Sandalwood
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We listened to whining about mean tweets and a great economy for 4 years, our turn.
BingoDingo
Absolute Idiot
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It was a good CPI report though..lol
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April had a step back too but was followed up with May and June being big months. The gas coming down should help with virtually everything else but electric had its biggest increase since 2006.
We'll see. Hopefully it's the start of a trend of things calming down.
BingoDingo
Absolute Idiot
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Yep, that's true...but unless something changes on the energy front, we should see seasonal impacts subside along with reduced demand. Producer Prices fell today too, which is another good sign... inventories are looking good also.
April had a step back too but was followed up with May and June being big months. The gas coming down should help with virtually everything else but electric had its biggest increase since 2006.
We'll see. Hopefully it's the start of a trend of things calming down.
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By
Joe Weisenthal
August 11, 2022 at 7:37 AM MDT
In this article
Markets surged yesterday after we got a 0.0% reading on month-over-month headline CPI. This was below the 0.2% that was expected, and well below the 1.3% number that we saw in the previous month. Of course, headline inflation was heavily influenced by the recent plunge in gasoline prices. However, core inflation — which excludes food and energy— also came in well below expectations (0.3% sequentially versus the 0.5% median estimate of economists).There are many ways people look at the inflation data, and it’s pretty common to look at the year-over-year number as well. And the year-over-year headline number was 8.5%, down from 9.1% in the previous month.
Anyway, there was a big fight in the politics-sphere about whether it’s legitimate to say that inflation was 0% in the month, given the sky high YoY number. The answer is yes, and this chart should clear it up.
Here is a chart of the CPI Price *Level* in each month going back to July 2021. To be clear, this is not a chart of the rate of inflation or the annualized pace or anything like that. It’s just a chart of how much things in the CPI basket cost each month all put together.
Bloomberg
So the first thing that’s obvious is that in July prices didn’t go up from June. In fact if you squint — or look at the level of the index to the right of the decimal point — they actually went down. But whatever, we’re not here for faux precision or anything. Prices were flat.
But here’s the other thing to think about, and now I’ll post the same chart with a slight bit of annotation.
That 8.5% number can be 100% explained by the price action over the 11 months preceding July. In other words, the 8.5% headline number is actually the change from July 2021 to June 2022.
Bloomberg
So right off the bat, it’s really weird to insist that 8.5% be the only number we can talk about for July, when that 8.5% number actually comes from every month that wasn’t July.
But also, we’re looking for turning points here. We’re in a crucial moment for markets and the Fed, etc. So the goal is to see if we’re at the start of a trend shift. And you can’t spot a trend shift by zooming out too far. You have to look more short-term to spot it. And it’s because investors perceived yesterday’s number to be an indication of a possible trend shift that we saw stocks go nuts yesterday.
Now again, politics is in the background of all these fights. And the general public, which is not that interested in a one-day stock-market move or the interplay between inflation measures and Fed policies, would still find that inflation is way too high and that the price of gasoline, food, rent, and several other categories are onerous. All that’s true. And yet, even the public is registering the changing trend, as we saw with the latest New York Fed inflation survey, which saw a marked decline in the public’s expectations for increases in consumer prices going forward on one- and three-year time horizons.
Source: NY Fed
Anyway, none of this is to say that inflation doesn’t remain a problem or that the Fed is done or anything like that. But it’s true that -- at least for the month of July -- overall prices stopped going up, and both the public and the market have noticed.
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By
Joe Weisenthal
August 11, 2022 at 7:37 AM MDT
In this article
Markets surged yesterday after we got a 0.0% reading on month-over-month headline CPI. This was below the 0.2% that was expected, and well below the 1.3% number that we saw in the previous month. Of course, headline inflation was heavily influenced by the recent plunge in gasoline prices. However, core inflation — which excludes food and energy— also came in well below expectations (0.3% sequentially versus the 0.5% median estimate of economists).
There are many ways people look at the inflation data, and it’s pretty common to look at the year-over-year number as well. And the year-over-year headline number was 8.5%, down from 9.1% in the previous month.
Anyway, there was a big fight in the politics-sphere about whether it’s legitimate to say that inflation was 0% in the month, given the sky high YoY number. The answer is yes, and this chart should clear it up.
Here is a chart of the CPI Price *Level* in each month going back to July 2021. To be clear, this is not a chart of the rate of inflation or the annualized pace or anything like that. It’s just a chart of how much things in the CPI basket cost each month all put together.
Bloomberg
So the first thing that’s obvious is that in July prices didn’t go up from June. In fact if you squint — or look at the level of the index to the right of the decimal point — they actually went down. But whatever, we’re not here for faux precision or anything. Prices were flat.
But here’s the other thing to think about, and now I’ll post the same chart with a slight bit of annotation.
That 8.5% number can be 100% explained by the price action over the 11 months preceding July. In other words, the 8.5% headline number is actually the change from July 2021 to June 2022.
Bloomberg
So right off the bat, it’s really weird to insist that 8.5% be the only number we can talk about for July, when that 8.5% number actually comes from every month that wasn’t July.
But also, we’re looking for turning points here. We’re in a crucial moment for markets and the Fed, etc. So the goal is to see if we’re at the start of a trend shift. And you can’t spot a trend shift by zooming out too far. You have to look more short-term to spot it. And it’s because investors perceived yesterday’s number to be an indication of a possible trend shift that we saw stocks go nuts yesterday.
Now again, politics is in the background of all these fights. And the general public, which is not that interested in a one-day stock-market move or the interplay between inflation measures and Fed policies, would still find that inflation is way too high and that the price of gasoline, food, rent, and several other categories are onerous. All that’s true. And yet, even the public is registering the changing trend, as we saw with the latest New York Fed inflation survey, which saw a marked decline in the public’s expectations for increases in consumer prices going forward on one- and three-year time horizons.
Source: NY Fed
Anyway, none of this is to say that inflation doesn’t remain a problem or that the Fed is done or anything like that. But it’s true that -- at least for the month of July -- overall prices stopped going up, and both the public and the market have noticed.
Dude clearly attended the Kamala School of Circumlocution with a major in avoiding succinct writing.
In simple terms….
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I have no dog in the fight, I just saw you guys were discussing it and it's trending on Twitter. This was one of the first articles that came up and it was from Bloomberg, so I thought it might help in the discussion.
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That's a perfect analogy.
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I made $4,800 today consulting. (see the MLPFC thread for the picture journey)
I’m taking a well earned dump right now and then I’m gonna get drunk on Wild Turkey 101 and Diet Coke.
My only contribution on this 0% inflation fairy tale is that I miss Jen for 2 big reasons.
I’m taking a well earned dump right now and then I’m gonna get drunk on Wild Turkey 101 and Diet Coke.
My only contribution on this 0% inflation fairy tale is that I miss Jen for 2 big reasons.
yes. we printed the most amount of USD in countries history when trump was the president, all was credit was historically cheap to borrow. it doesnt take a genius that a hyper inflated world was coming.
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It’s not wrong imo. Way too many words though. His last paragraph would’ve sufficed.
