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What is it supposed to be telling us? I'm not a gambler so idk what all of this means
Serious question: how is CU only favored -2.5?
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Serious question: how is CU only favored -2.5?
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It means that the sharps/algorithms are heavily favoring Nebraska.
With all the public money and bets pouring in on CU, the line should be moving toward Colorado. However, the line has stayed the same, even without even money on each side of the line. Vegas typically will want the line to move in order to have about 50/50 money on each side of the line. They then would make their money on the "juice". The juice is when you would need to bet $110 to win $100 (if the line is -110). In this game, though, they are not moving the line and are leaving themselves open to huge liability because all the money is on one side.
Since they are not moving the line, the sportsbooks must be expecting a lot of big money to come in on Nebraska closer to game day. That is also when the limits on how much is able to be bet on each game is raised (so say right now the limit is $1000 on the spread and $500 on the moneyline --- just examples, no clue what they actually are --- but come game day, those limits could be raised to like $5000 on the spread and $2500 on the moneyline --- again just examples).
One of the articles posted early in this thread basically said that Circa (?) tried to move the line to CU -5, but they were hit heavily with Nebraska bets/money. That basically meant that the sharps/algos were going to bet Nebraska hard if they moved the line that high. That is why they moved it to the 2.5-3.5 range and have held it there even with all the bets/money from the public coming in on CU.
The sharps/algos really seem to like Nebraska (or at least hate CU) in this game.
***Edit*** the crazy part is that if the books are wrong about where the sharp/algo money will come this weekend, they could be set to lose a ton of money. Or, if the sharps/algos instead bet CU and push even more money on CU, then they are fucked if CU does win and cover. If NU wins/covers, then in that case they would make a ton of money.
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The money line has been slowly crawling in CUs direction but overall the line is still just holding steady.
I think I’m going to lay a bet on Colorado now, so if the line flys on Friday/Saturday morning I can have a sweet bet on a window of a 3-7 point Nebraska loss which any Nebraska fan would acknowledge is the most likely outcome.
I think I’m going to lay a bet on Colorado now, so if the line flys on Friday/Saturday morning I can have a sweet bet on a window of a 3-7 point Nebraska loss which any Nebraska fan would acknowledge is the most likely outcome.
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/books
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what does the moneyline do or tell us
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Yes.
On Saturday afternoon it was set so if I bet Nebraska to win I’d have to bet $120 to win $100. That has moved to if I bet $100 I win $120
It tells us how many lines of money it takes to measure each coaches cock. Right now Deion has an inverted penis
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Moneyline is a bet on who wins/loses straightup without a spread.
If you bet 100 on Nebraska and they win, you'd win 135
If you bet 155 on CU and they win, you'd win 100.
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so looking at moneyline and the regular betting then vegas must be thinking colorado wins by a point or two?
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Correct which is interesting because that means they consider Nebraska a better team on a neutral field.
One of the more interesting lines I’ve watched that I can remember.
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Skerz4life explanation is really good. Read that again.
I wouldn't say Vegas thinks CU is going to win by a point or 2 really but at -5 they were uncomfortable with the amount of money on Nebraska. At -3 they're content with the excess coming in on Colorado. They know/suspect the money coming in on Nebraska closer to gametime will get the money even which is their ultimate goal.
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The books got cleaned out by CU ML bettors last week to the tune of +800. They got absolutely fuckin cleaned out when CU won. CU covering would have been bad enough but when CU actually won that triggered those +800 ML bets.
So now you have these same books w another massive CU liability building this week - this time it's if they win by 3 or more (which the public thinks is like 95% certainty).
But the books don't seem to care in the slightest that they have this massive CU liability building this week. They're not addressing it at all by moving the line. It's really one of the more insane things I've seen in 25 yrs following Vegas CFB lines.
In this case I don't even think it's necessary the sharps/future $$$ doing it, I think the books actually just like Nebraska. Their algos are all over NU and this CU letdown this week. It's really something bc no one in the public sees the game that way.
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Agree to disagree. I think on a neutral field Minnesota is -7 vs TCU.
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Vegas isn't predicting the score, they're trying to optimize profit. They might have models telling them the score will be Nebraska -6 but the public would come in so hard on Colorado that it they have to risk adjust it somehow.
The mindfuck I keep getting with this game from a gambling perspective is that their risk adjusted spread, with a MASSIVE liability for a college game, is only -3. There is such a huge disparity between QBs that it's almost like a free bet promo. It seems so obvious. I don't see how the money doesn't keep coming in on Colorado and the Nebraska fan in me has seen this so many times that I can't separate the emotion from the logic.
I can't help but remember the cockeye game in 2021 where we opened -0.5 and closed -1.5 despite coming off the most notorious streak of 1 score games in history. They were a dog ass 9-2 team and we were the world's greatest 3-8 team to walk the planet. The public was all over Cockeye too. Sharps got waxed. Gambling people were all over us because "Vegas is begging you to bet Cockeye"
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