Serious question: how is CU only favored -2.5?

[Skerz4Life50]

so looking at moneyline and the regular betting then vegas must be thinking colorado wins by a point or two?

Vegas doesn't care about the teams. They sets lines where they think they will get even money on each side. They use handicappers who have their own models and analytics about what an expected outcome of the game should be, and then they set their lines based on those. However, the lines will typically move if the public starts betting heavily on one side.

Sharps/algos don't actually care about the teams really either. They use analytics, etc. also in order to determine what they believe the line should be set at. They make bets based on their analytics and the size of their bets are usually determined by what their "models" say compared to what the line is set at.

The public usually bets with their "heart", whereas the sharps/algos bet pretty much blindly (again, do not care about the teams playing). So, for this game, the models/analytics, etc. that the sharps/algos use are saying that Nebraska should not be more than basically a 3 point underdog. It may even be that they have Nebraska favored, but that doesn't really matter in this situation.

 

[Tonkasker]

Sharps/algos don't actually care about the teams really either. They use analytics, etc. also in order to determine what they believe the line should be set at. They make bets based on their analytics and the size of their bets are usually determined by what their "models" say compared to what the line is set at.

Bingo. Nobody is betting this because they love Jeff Sims. They're betting trends that return 55% over the past ten years and/or advanced analytics that factor in last year's colorado team. Going away from it isn't an option for them.

 

[Jim14510]

The books got cleaned out by CU ML bettors last week to the tune of +800. They got absolutely fuckin cleaned out when CU won.

So now you have these same books w another massive CU liability building this week - this time it's if they win by 3 or more (which the public thinks is like 95% certainty).

But the books don't seem to care in the slightest that they have this massive CU liability building this week. They're not addressing it at all by moving the line. It's really one of the more insane things I've seen in 25 yrs following Vegas CFB lines.

In this case I don't even think it's necessary the sharps/future $$$ doing it, I think the books actually just like Nebraska. Their algos are all over NU and this CU letdown this week. It's really something bc no one in the public sees the game that way.

Them winning at +800 doesn't really mean the books lost money. The goal of the books is to pay out what they take in minus their fees.

So for every $100 at +800 they had bets of $100 at -800. Otherwise the line would have moved. Obviously that's never going to be perfect but it's pretty close. Over a football season the amount the books win from the results of the game is minuscule to the amount the book collects in fees people pay for betting through them.

 

[Mavsker]

In this case I don't even think it's necessary the sharps/future $$$ doing it, I think the books actually just like Nebraska. Their algos are all over NU and this CU letdown this week. It's really something bc no one in the public sees the game that way.

Granted I don't know a ton about sports betting but I doubt this theory. Because if that were what was happening, id think you'd have some books who would choose to take on that risk and some who would be more conservative and not manipulate the line. I wouldn't think you'd see every book doing the same thing with manipulating the line. Also not sure why any book would take on the huge risk huge reward instead of that guaranteed 10-15% margin they'd get if they set the line properly.

 

[ChocaEgg]

I just want to know who vegas thinks is going to win the game straight up 🤷‍♂️

 

[BluesBucksNHuskers]

I just want to know who vegas thinks is going to win the game straight up 🤷‍♂️

Vegas doesn’t give a shit who wins the game.

They give a shit what handicap will make 50% of people think Nebraska would win and 50% of people think Colorado would win so they can laugh as they collect 10% of every bet.

This one is weird because 80% of the money is going Colorado, and Vegas is saying, “Meh, we still think that Nebraska money is coming” instead of forcing that money by giving Nebraska a bigger handicap.

In short, Neutral Field - Nebraska would be favored by a point or two.

It’s a lot easier to explain when it’s not the goofiest non-moving line ever lol

 

[Skerz4Life50]

I just want to know who vegas thinks is going to win the game straight up 🤷‍♂️

If you look at all the sites that use analytics to give each team a percentage chance to win the game, you can probably get an idea of what the Vegas handicappers who set the lines also think. But, their job isn't actually to predict a winner. Some of the sites that use advanced analytics have the predictions below. This probably gives you an idea on why Vegas doesn't want to move the line any further towards CU, because all the analytics suggest Nebraska should win, so they believe the sharps/algos will bring money in on NU closer to game time.



Sagarin (http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm#Predictions_with_Totals) also has his own power rankings that also uses his own patented methods to determine scores, etc. His model shows that Nebraska should be a greater than 3 point favorite, even on the road. He gives road teams an extra 2.9 points. So, on a neutral field he would have Nebraska as a 6-7 point favorite.



Again, these differences are why it seems like Vegas doesn't want to move the line any further in CU's direction, because all ratings, analytics, and models favor Nebraska.

 

[ChocaEgg]

If you look at all the sites that use analytics to give each team a percentage chance to win the game, you can probably get an idea of what the Vegas handicappers who set the lines also think. But, their job isn't actually to predict a winner. Some of the sites that use advanced analytics have the predictions below. This probably gives you an idea on why Vegas doesn't want to move the line any further towards CU, because all the analytics suggest Nebraska should win, so they believe the sharps/algos will bring money in on NU closer to game time.

View attachment 27104

Thank you

 

[Mavsker]

If you look at all the sites that use analytics to give each team a percentage chance to win the game, you can probably get an idea of what the Vegas handicappers who set the lines also think. But, their job isn't actually to predict a winner. Some of the sites that use advanced analytics have the predictions below. This probably gives you an idea on why Vegas doesn't want to move the line any further towards CU, because all the analytics suggest Nebraska should win, so they believe the sharps/algos will bring money in on NU closer to game time.

View attachment 27104

It will be an interesting test of man vs machine. Almost all the individual prognosticators (and the general public) are picking CU bigly. Whereas the models are largely picking NU.
Really makes you think

 

[BluesBucksNHuskers]

It will be an interesting test of man vs machine. Almost all the individual prognosticators (and the general public) are picking CU bigly. Whereas the models are largely picking NU.
Really makes you think

While Nebraska fans sit back and know the real answer. Nebraska will whoop that ass for 3 1/2 quarters and then fuck it up.

 

[The Other Dave]

It will be an interesting test of man vs machine. Almost all the individual prognosticators (and the general public) are picking CU bigly. Whereas the models are largely picking NU.
Really makes you think

Agree. I'd love to know how much 2022 data is being used by these models. We all know that should be discarded. Do they have any discretionary inputs? No idea how it works, but they're usually right

 

[herbsinator]

Agree. I'd love to know how much 2022 data is being used by these models. We all know that should be discarded. Do they have any discretionary inputs? No idea how it works, but they're usually right

Any good model would surely have to take into account any transfers/new recruits, but the level of CU’s turnover could probably break any algo.

 

[Pipe Line]

The money line has been slowly crawling in CUs direction but overall the line is still just holding steady.

I think I’m going to lay a bet on Colorado now, so if the line flys on Friday/Saturday morning I can have a sweet bet on a window of a 3-7 point Nebraska loss which any Nebraska fan would acknowledge is the most likely outcome.

The amount of state wide vomit if we lose this game close, in a way only we could, will be astounding

 

[Jim14510]

The amount of state wide vomit if we lose this game close, in a way only we could, will be astounding

Would probably be able to see Nebraska melting on a map.

 

[MtnHusker]

CU-TCU game was on again last night. I watched some of it and still think that we should win this game. CU's Passing game is nice but their O-Line still gave up sacks even though he was throwing short passes. Noted that they have a 6-10 OT starting, but didn't see if he was a pylon or could move. So we aren't the only ones with super tall tackles playing. I think we can run the ball down their throats. Not much depth on D and their D-Line is on the smaller side. No doubting Hunter is a special talent but you need more than that to win against tough competition. I saw their Safety was potentially out for our game. It wouldn't surprise me to see Rhule line up 12 or 13 personnel and maybe even a FB at times with Ervin toting the rock. Some good "Ole Skool Smashmouth Football". Wear their asses down with our big power back as I don't think they have much depth on defense. And that defense isn't even ranked in the Top 100 after giving up a ton of yards and points to an unimpressive TCU Offense. I think we punch them in the mouth with Power Football controlling the clock and walk out of Boulder with a W.

 

[Pipe Line]

Would probably be able to see Nebraska melting on a map.

"Our red burns brighter"

 

[HerbRedman]

Them winning at +800 doesn't really mean the books lost money. The goal of the books is to pay out what they take in minus their fees.

So for every $100 at +800 they had bets of $100 at -800. Otherwise the line would have moved. Obviously that's never going to be perfect but it's pretty close. Over a football season the amount the books win from the results of the game is minuscule to the amount the book collects in fees people pay for betting through them.

You don't think the books lost money on CU last week? You serious Clark?

He talks about it here:

 

[Tonkasker]

Any good model would surely have to take into account any transfers/new recruits, but the level of CU’s turnover could probably break any algo.

This is exactly my theory and why i like colorado -3. I will not be betting it out of principle because fuck em.

I know that returning production has been such a consistent indicator of early-season success that most algos have colorado underrated.

I think it will take a few games for them to adjust to a team like Colorado but they're fucked and have to take it on the chin because they have to lose on outliers in order to profit over the long term.

 

[Jim14510]

You don't think the books lost money on CU last week? You serious Clark?

He talks about it here:

BetQL isn't a book. It is unusual for a game to have more than 55% of the money one way or the other.

I can't watch the video rn. Maybe he knows what Caesers lost.

 

[Link-]

ML moved to +140