Serious question: how is CU only favored -2.5?

[HerbRedman]

What is a sharp

Professional bettors, essentially. People who work off computer algorithms, trends, and match-up analysis to make educated picks. Bets are typically $5,000 per game & higher.

Public bets average like $20/game (per bet).

 

[BIGSTICK67]

What is a sharp

The opposite of Tater Island. GBR!

 

[Stan Raymond]

What is a sharp

The folks that don't bet "just for fun".

 

[Cornicator]

Professional bettors, essentially. People who work off computer algorithms, trends, and match-up analysis to make educated picks. Bets are typically $5,000 per game & higher.

Public bets average like $20/game (per bet).

Is it possible Vegas has some information about CU that's not being reported anywhere?

 

[HerbRedman]

Is it possible Vegas has some information about CU that's not being reported anywhere?

I've been wondering this all week. I don't know what that would be though. We already know the injuries on CU - they're significant but not line changing. I personally think that Vegas simply doesn't believe CU is anywhere near as good as the public thinks.

The odd thing to me is that the line basically froze on Monday so the books had an entire week to take in this massive amount of CU money. They've probably got a 75-25 CU liability (complete guess). They saw that coming on Sunday/Monday and the Vegas books just kept inviting all this CU cash all week & they didn't do anything to stop it.

Now....w the line at -2.5, the books have exposure to the point where they get killed w virtually any CU win. CU can have a 'just OK' game and catch Sims in another stinker and manage to win by 3....and they have to cash out that massive CU liability. If the line was at -7 to -9 at least CU would have to play well to cover. And you would have discouraged some of that CU money thereby lessening your liability.

After watching this all week, the only thing I can assume is that the analytics experts at these sportsbooks have a very high confidence level in Nebraska. I think if they didn't you would have seen that line move to -7. It didn't move to -7, I suspect because those oddsmakers know they have an army of sharps waiting to dump Brinks trucks $$$ on Nebraska if it got there. Keeping it at -2.5 kept those guys in waiting all week. I suspect they make their plays Fri and Sat morning.

I'll tell you this much, if CU comes out blows the doors off and wins this 49-14 running away it's gonna make you wonder WTF was going on this entire week. That would be 2nd consecutive week Vegas got hammered in a CU game - and the 2nd one would have been infinitely more avoidable than the first. But they made zero efforts at avoiding it -- on the contrary, they actually invited more and more CU $$ -- which makes you go WTF.

 

[HerbRedman]

 

[HerbRedman]

 

[HerbRedman]

 

[Tonkasker]

Guys one of the greatest handicappers of all time

 

[HerbRedman]

I think Vegas had this game DEAD ON. But their analytics did not factor in the eyeball test from Sims in game one.

That was one thing I did think: what if Vegas is right about all 44 players on offense and defense BUT Sims just fucks up the entire game. They had the read correct on all 43 players but the 1 they underaccounted for Sims and his fuck ups.

That was the one thing in the back of my mind.

 

[BluesBucksNHuskers]

Sims might need to watch out for Italians in fancy suits during halftime

 

[DuckSker]

tRuSt vEgAS!!!