Serious question: how is CU only favored -2.5?

[Mavsker]

ML moved to +140

I show it hit +140 twice yesterday fwiw. It's been moving between +130 and +140 since Monday afternoon

 

[Kaladin]

 

[BIGSTICK67]

Welp, my hope sort of faded if this guy knows WTF he's talking about.

He does wear his hat backwards, so there's that.

 

[Kaladin]

Welp, my hope sort of faded if this guy knows WTF he's talking about.

He does wear his hat backwards, so there's that.

And he has massive eyebrows

 

[ChocaEgg]

And he has massive eyebrows

 

[BIGSTICK67]

And he has massive eyebrows

Which is probably better than Lowenbrau. I mean, they cease to exist.

 

[Toe]

I mean if I had no interest in either team, I'd call this a 'stay the hell away' game too. Same reasons I said earlier: only one game to date for each team, and they were wildly different games against wildly different opponents.

 

[HerbRedman]

I mean if I had no interest in either team, I'd call this a 'stay the hell away' game too. Same reasons I said earlier: only one game to date for each team, and they were wildly different games against wildly different opponents.

That's been the most interesting thing I've gleaned from watching the betting experts this week: almost all of them are very interested in this game....they talk about record high ticket volume for an early season game....then they go "oh yeah, I'm not betting it."

That's been the most consistent thing I've heard this week: fascinating, exciting game...and no I'm not betting it.

Weird.

 

[HCFord1]

That's been the most interesting thing I've gleaned from watching the betting experts this week: almost all of them are very interested in this game....they talk about record high ticket volume for an early season game....then they go "oh yeah, I'm not betting it."

That's been the most consistent thing I've heard this week: fascinating, exciting game...and no I'm not betting it.

Weird.

Good sports betters are always able to compartmentalize whatever fandom they have for the sport in general from what would be a good value from a betting perspective. Just from a market efficiency standpoint, I’m sure that most of their money goes to lesser-bet matchups.

 

[HerbRedman]

My problem with the video is he doesn't really explain why it's a "stay away" game for him. That's kind of an important point he leaves out.

His video is surely correct: he says public and sharps are aligned on CU for this game. I'm certain that's true. It's not really a tantalizing line to fade the public w bc Nebraska has to win outright essentially to cash it.

Then he says "everyone is saying you should fade CU/pick Nebraska" and he says they're wrong. So he's doing a contrarian video against all the pro NU betting insiders this week - but then he's like "oh me? I'm not betting it, it's too spooky." That doesn't make any sense.

He's saying that the line movement this week is logical, the public is on CU, the sharps are on CU...then he's like "but it's way too spooky, I'm not playing it."

You can't argue that it's 100% logical and then say it's too wacky at the same time. His video is contradictory. He does a bad job of connecting the dots on here. I think what he means is, with all this public AND sharp money, the line should be at CU -9, but it's not and that's spooking me out about this game so I'm not betting it.

It's kind of an annoying video. He acts like he's got something super revelatory but then says that everything happening is 100% explainable. But then he's like "but you gotta stay away from it." WTF? I honestly think he just wanted to make a contrarian video to all the Vegas insiders stuff this week, but he didn't realize think through the points he wanted to make.

 

[HerbRedman]

Another article talking about the deluge of money in on CU AND the hypothesis: "oddsmakers will be rooting for Nebraska."

It's such an odd hypothesis for a seasoned gambling writer to make: "85% of the money is coming in on Colorado, therefore Vegas is helpless to fix their liability so the only thing they can do now is hope and pray Nebraska wins." There is something Vegas can do to limit the exposure: they can MOVE THE LINE. 🤯

Of all the videos put out this week and articles written, no one has yet to explain why Vegas is inviting all of this CU money in. They invited it in in week 1 and got killed. They're doing the same in week 2.

And Colorado was laying just 2.5 points? If you believe in trap lines, this is the biggest trap of them all.

Many, many bettors don't mind. Almost all of the money came in on Colorado, which shouldn't have been a surprise. At BetMGM, 87% of the tickets and 87% of the money bet on the spread was on CU as of Wednesday afternoon. As for the moneyline, 69% of the tickets and 85% of the handle was on Colorado. The line moved to Colorado -3.

There's going to be a lot of red being worn by the oddsmakers Saturday.

Colorado is America's betting favorite again, this time for home test vs. Nebraska

Deion Sanders' team is a big deal in the betting world, too.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[HerbRedman]

Will be interesting to track these after games end on Saturday.

Obviously major difference is the NU/CU volume is probably bigger than these other games combined. But still interesting to follow.

 

[Cornicator]

Will be interesting to track these after games end on Saturday.

Obviously major difference is the NU/CU volume is probably bigger than these other games combined. But still interesting to follow.

That KState spread has looked tempting all week. The Cats are notorious for playing early season non con stinkers. And Troy is a likely 10 or 11 win football this season.

Take Troy+ the points.

 

[Huskerforlife]

Sunday Morning Quarterback​

Nebraska-Colorado football prediction

DAVID MAX • 11 HOURS AGO

Bob and Jay give their predictions for the Nebraska-Colorado matchup on Saturday, which may be the most watched and heavily betted game of the year.

SMQ Nebraska-Colorado 2023 Prediction

Bob and Jay from Sunday Morning Quarterback give their predictions on the Nebraska-Colorado game.

cdn.jwplayer.com

 

[Mavsker]

Another article talking about the deluge of money in on CU AND the hypothesis: "oddsmakers will be rooting for Nebraska."

It's such an odd hypothesis for a seasoned gambling writer to make: "85% of the money is coming in on Colorado, therefore Vegas is helpless to fix their liability so the only thing they can do now is hope and pray Nebraska wins." There is something Vegas can do to limit the exposure: they can MOVE THE LINE. 🤯

Of all the videos put out this week and articles written, no one has yet to explain why Vegas is inviting all of this CU money in. They invited it in in week 1 and got killed. They're doing the same in week 2.

Colorado is America's betting favorite again, this time for home test vs. Nebraska

Deion Sanders' team is a big deal in the betting world, too.

sports.yahoo.com

I've tried to explain but the whole Deion phenomenon is a conspiracy to wealth transfer from the football loving middle class to Vegas and the Sanders family.

Step 1: Hype Deion non-stop in the media (done)
Step 2: Set a line that puts Colorado big underdogs to TCU (done)
Step 3: Colorado pulls the "huge upset" which is barely an upset as TCU sucks (done)
Step 4: Media goes crazy, Deion/Colorado attention at an all-time high. Set the line that puts Colorado barely a favorite at home against a questionable NU team (done)
Step 5: Money comes absolutely pouring in on the CU side. Don't adjust the line (done).
Step 6: Deion/Shadeur blow the game, NU wins
Step 7: Vegas and Sanders family split the handsome windfall profits

Simple as

 

[BluesBucksNHuskers]

Will be interesting to track these after games end on Saturday.

Obviously major difference is the NU/CU volume is probably bigger than these other games combined. But still interesting to follow.

Bet a guy could make some money just going through this list and betting on Vegas making money

 

[HerbRedman]

 

[HerbRedman]

 

[HerbRedman]

 

[ChocaEgg]

What is a sharp