- Messages
- 6,699
- Likes
- 29,384
What coaches and scouts are saying about Colorado, Deion before big Oregon test
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
-
Pete Thamel, ESPNSep 22, 2023, 07:15 AM ET
Sanders took a brand that essentially laid dormant for a decade and has orchestrated a stunning revival of relevancy, pushing the Buffaloes into the rare space of being relevant both in sports and pop culture. Colorado went from 1-11 to hosting Lil Wayne pregame.
Colorado is white hot, so much so that more people watched Colorado and Colorado State (9.3 million) -- two teams that went a combined 4-20 last year -- than watched iconic brands Alabama and Texas (8.8 million) the week before. What makes that more astounding is the Colorado game started after 10 p.m. ET, ended after last call and smashed ESPN's record for the most-watched late-night game of all time by more than 4 million viewers.
Three games in, Sanders has taken over the sport. And no matter how the next nine games unfold, he's already won for the 2023 season. Consider that Colorado last weekend hosted quarterback recruit Bryce Underwood, who is No. 1 overall in ESPN's 2025 rankings.
Sanders' presence in Boulder has the Buffs in contention with school like Michigan, Alabama and LSU for the type of recruit who wouldn't even have opened mail from previous Colorado staffs.
All that said, Colorado is due for a course correction in upcoming weeks, according to coaches who've played them, others who've broken them down and scouts who've studied them. The half-dozen coaches and scouts ESPN spoke to all predicted a lopsided loss this weekend when No. 19 Colorado plays at No. 9 Oregon.
"I think Oregon is going to boat race them," said an opposing assistant coach. "Oregon is different up front. There's a lot of bark, not much bite to Colorado. When they run into the bigger dogs in the Pac-12, it's going to come to an end."
The oddsmakers are again skeptical, as Colorado is nearly a three-touchdown underdog at Oregon this weekend. (They were the same caliber underdog at TCU.)
Perhaps the best way to sum up the paradox of Colorado's roster compared to its results came from an NFL scout.He said Colorado has just one draft-eligible player -- quarterback Shedeur Sanders -- who is a surefire pick in the first three rounds of the 2024 draft. (Travis Hunter will be in 2025, but he's not draft-eligible).
The next best draft-eligible player after Sanders is linebacker Juwan Mitchell, who projects as a midround pick. The Buffaloes could have three or four other players drafted, but those two -- and it's not certain Sanders will declare after this season -- are the only surefire picks for 2024.
Perhaps the most impressive part of Sanders' 3-0 start is that the sum of the roster has played better than its parts. Savvy hires at offensive coordinator (Sean Lewis) and defensive coordinator (Charles Kelly) have forged identities on both sides of the ball.
Every coach and scout raved about one of the most important reflections on coaching -- how hard a team plays. They said the Buffaloes consistently played like their helmets were on fire.
"It's a testament to what they are doing," said a veteran scout. "There's not a lot of great players. They're well-coached. I think that's one thing that gets missed. It's not just roll the ball out. Those guys get after it. It's old school. Deion learned from Bobby Bowden, those FSU practices were brutal. You watch (former Alabama assistant) Sal Sunseri and those guys, they are old-school coaches. It's neat. It's a mixture."
How good is Colorado? Where are the Buffs vulnerable as they head into back-to-back high-profile games against No. 10 Oregon and No. 5 USC?
Here's what film study and playing the Buffaloes revealed to coaches.
How good is Shedeur Sanders?
Just three games into his career as a Power 5 quarterback, Sanders has established himself as one of the top quarterbacks in college football.
Sanders has thrived in Lewis' offense and shown significant development since last season at Jackson State, showing an ability to evade the pass rush, keep his eyes downfield and surgically pick apart defenses.
"I don't know if he's in the class of Caleb Williams or Drake Maye," said a scout. "But he could make a case for the third quarterback. He's tough, too. He's getting drilled."
Sanders' electric and clutch performances have thrust him onto the NFL radar. Multiple teams have juggled schedules since Sanders' hot start to get scouts' eyes on him in person. The Colorado vs. USC game next week is expected to be a bonanza of NFL scouts and personnel, with more than 20 teams already having filed for credentials to see Sanders duel with presumptive No. 1 pick Caleb Williams.
And Sanders has earned the extra eyeballs and rising draft stock, as he's No. 2 in the country in passing yards (417.0) per game, No. 7 in touchdown passes (10) and an astounding No. 4 in completion percentage (78.8) considering he's operated under significant duress.
"He was awesome," said an opposing defensive assistant. "I think he deserves way more credit for his ability to move around and throw down the field. When he was pressured, he moved and kept his eyes down the field and delivered the ball. He's got a unique ability to find guys later on and put it on the money down the field."
Can Colorado's offensive line give Sanders a chance?
Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY SportsThe key to Colorado's season is going to be keeping Sanders upright. He's been hit an astounding 55 times on dropbacks this year, the most of any quarterback in college football. To have his production amid a constant fire drill has perhaps been the most impressive part of a scintillating season.
The numbers are ugly for Colorado's offensive line. According to Sports Info Solutions, Sanders' 55 hits on dropback plays is 16 more than the next Power 5 quarterback, as South Carolina's Spencer Rattler has been hit 39 times. Overall, he has been hit 65 times, tied for the third most of any quarterback in the FBS per ESPN Stats & Info.
The definitive weak point of the Colorado program is the offensive line. Sanders has been sacked 16 times, which is tied with South Florida for the second-most in the country. (Only Old Dominion is worse.)
Scouts said part of the key to Colorado's victory against TCU was the Horned Frogs dropping eight into coverage in the second half, which played into Sanders' strength of sitting back and surgically picking apart the defense.
The interior of the line is susceptible, as starting center Van Wells, who is solid, missed last week's game against Colorado State and is questionable this week. That left true freshman Hank Zilinskas to start at center, which is indicative of Colorado's lack of depth.
One scout noticed Colorado State attempted to match up star rush edge Mohamed Kamara more toward the interior to take advantage of the Buffs' weak spots. Opponents have also noted the simplicity of Colorado's blocking schemes. The side the tailback lines up on, according to an opposing assistant, is the side they'll block man-to-man on against a four-down front. (The back acts as the first blocker on the second-level defender.)
"Most teams flip it and the backs come across," said the assistant. "But where the back started at, that was where the man side was at."
It will be interesting to see how Colorado's unusually massive tackles hold up against Oregon's defensive line. Left tackle Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan is 6-foot-10 and 315 pounds and right tackle Savion Washington is 6-8, 320. (Washington is also a Kent transfer.) "You have to run the Magellan circle to get around them," joked one opposing defensive coach.
Neither tackle is an NFL prospect, and each has played OK this year against pedestrian defensive competition. But that could change against Oregon's front, which is the best that Colorado will face so far this year.
What's the biggest worry for Colorado?
When the coach's son is the quarterback, and the coach basically told the incumbent QBs they weren't wanted in the program, there's difficulty in building depth in the quarterback room.If Shedeur Sanders gets hurt, the drop-off would be significant for Colorado. And Colorado's playcalling and decision-making indicates the staff knows that.
"If he gets injured, they are really in trouble," said a scout. "The guys behind him aren't very good."
The Colorado playbook has virtually eliminated the quarterback run game Lewis used as the head coach and playcaller at Kent State.
"Sanders doesn't want to run at all," said another opposing defensive assistant. "He runs to throw the ball. He does not want to run. There's a lot of times in the game, you aren't accounting for him as a runner."
While freshman tailback Dylan Edwards has been a dynamic player out of the backfield in the pass game, he's revealed himself as a major liability in blitz pickups, according to multiple coaches.
Colorado's 1.99 yards per rush is the fourth-worst total in the country. With Sanders too valuable to risk in designed quarterback runs, it could leave Colorado one-dimensional.
That left one opposing defensive coach making this prediction: "I'd say they are somewhere between a six-win and an eight-win team, if everything goes well. They can't run the ball. When you get to the teams that have massive fronts and have some stuff to get to the passer with four (defensive linemen), they'll have issues."
How big of a loss is Travis Hunter?
Travis Hunter played over 100 snaps in Week 1. LM Otero/APIt's hard to quantify, as he's the program's best defensive player and arguably second-best offensive player. Hunter is dealing with a lacerated liver and is expected to be out for about three weeks.
Hunter's loss is blunted some at wide receiver, where Colorado has quality depth. USF transfers Jimmy Horn Jr. and Xavier Weaver have played well for the Buffs and are among the draft-eligible players who could play themselves into late-round picks.
"They've got good skill where you can't concentrate on one or two guys," said one coach. "They're going to distribute the ball and any one can catch fire."
Hunter's loss will be felt more on defense, where his speed, instincts and playmaking have made him one of the sport's sensations this season. Before the injury, Hunter was slated to shadow star Rams receiver Tory Horton, who ended up with a school-record 16 receptions, and his 133 yards made him one of three Rams receivers over 100 yards.
Colorado looked lost at times in pass defense, especially on crossing routes. The Rams completed 16 of 18 shallow crossing routes, an average of 8.6 yards per attempt.
The nature of Colorado's roster makeover and the influx of players after spring football have led to basic schemes that talented offensive teams should be able to exploit. Colorado is ranked below No. 100 nationally in total defense (No. 122), passing yards allowed (No. 107), rushing defense (No. 119) and scoring defense (No. 102).
Some of that is tied to the pace Colorado plays, as offenses like Lewis' tend to leave defenses hamstrung. Still, there are areas coaches think will be exploited.
"The schemes are simple," said an opposing assistant coach "I just think there's a lack of pressures, and you don't see a lot of coverages -- there's man, zone and not much else."
The coach added: "What's going to hurt them, too, is you look at teams that have real dudes at receiver -- like USC -- have a lot of threats. They are going to struggle."
The test against Oregon will be Colorado's lack of physicality, as there's no surefire NFL talent on its defensive front.
"I don't know if they're going to beat a team built on physicality," said an opposing assistant. "It's finesse and speed on the outside -- if you suspend drives with physicality and can hit them on the outside with passes, they get in panic mode."
