How Many Wins Next Year?

[Dr.DrakeRamoray]

Should win 8-9
Probably will win 5-6

 

[kenyanfeline]

if you mean the ceiling is 12-0 in the sense that it’s 12-0 theoretically every year even though that hasn’t happened since 1997 and we haven’t been remotely close to that since…. 2001?, then yeah sure, in theory it’s 12-0 as the ceiling in the same way that’s true for every team.

If you mean there’s any chance that Nebraska goes 12-0, then it’s ridiculous to say so when we’re sub .500 in the last four years.

I don’t know which games Nebraska will lose next year, but i suspect they’ll lose no fewer than 3. Further, OU seems pretty damn unwinnable to me at the moment - we’ll see on others like Cockeyes, Wisconsin, Michigan.

Nebraska fans have an amazing ability to underestimate who they’ll lose to before the start of each year.

So you are classifying OU as unwinnable because of us getting blown out 23-16 in Norman?

And you are saying Michigan is unwinnable because of how we got blown out 32-29 last week?

And Cockeye is absolutely unwinnable because of the we’ve been blown out by 3, 3, and 6 points, respectively, in the last three meetings, and who has an artificially inflated #2 ranking?

And Wisconsin… who is off to an impressive 2-3 start and just “barely” lost to Michigan by 3 touchdowns?

Damn, on the second thought, you are right. Those four games are certainly unwinnable. They seemed close at first but now you have helped me understand how insurmountable scores like “23-16,” “31-29,” and “27-24” are.

Let it be known, to all of TPB, that the ceiling of this football team next year has been lowered to 8 games because @Chi7397 has deemed OU, Mich, Wisconsin, and Cockeye to be unwinnable.

For the record, I am not predicting 12 wins. 9 seems more logical. I said the ceiling was 12.

@HuskerGarrett please change his banner name from “linebacker” to “such a realist that I’m out of touch with reality.” Thanks

 

[Chi7397]

So you are classifying OU as unwinnable because of us getting blown out 23-16 in Norman?

And you are saying Michigan is unwinnable because of how we got blown out 32-29 last week?

And Cockeyes is absolutely unwinnable because of the we’ve been blown out by 3, 3, and 6 points, respectively, in the last three meetings, and who has an artificially inflated #2 ranking?

And Wisconsin… who is off to an impressive 2-3 start and just “barely” lost to Michigan by 3 touchdowns?

Damn, on the second thought, you are right. Those four games are certainly unwinnable. They seemed close at first but now you have helped me understand how insurmountable scores like “23-16,” “31-29,” and “27-24” are.

Let it be known, to all of TPB, that the ceiling of this football team next year has been lowered to 8 games because @Chi7397 has deemed OU, Mich, Wisconsin, and Cockeyes to be unwinnable.

For the record, I am not predicting 12 wins. 9 seems more logical. I said the ceiling was 12.

@HuskerGarrett please change his banner name from “linebacker” to “such a realist that I’m out of touch with reality.” Thanks

I don’t see where I deemed those games unwinnable aside from saying Ou seems pretty unwinnable based on the last 10 years of Nebraska football.

You’re absolutely correct the theoretical ceiling is 12 because there are 12 games on the schedule. That’s true for UCONN too - they could theoretically win 12 next year too. Great point, huge addition to the board and very solid analysis.

 

[Alcaus]

Barring a MSU transfer haul this year this team will take a step backward talent-wise.

If Martinez is gone you’re starting a RS Freshman or RS Sophomore with next to zero playing experience and we know this offense can’t move the ball without a near-elite player at the QB position.

Who steps in for Domann, Williams, Dismuke, Daniels, CTB (if he leaves), Stille, etc?

Lots of question marks on defense.

 

[sexmonster]

I don’t see where I deemed those games unwinnable aside from saying Ou seems pretty unwinnable based on the last 10 years of Nebraska football.

You’re absolutely correct the theoretical ceiling is 12 because there are 12 games on the schedule. That’s true for UCONN too - they could theoretically win 12 next year too. Great point, huge addition to the board and very solid analysis.

Based on the last 10 years of NU football? You really think 10 years ago matters in 2022? You're getting bodied here, pal.

Breakdown the OU and UM matchups for 2022 and tell us why they are unwinnable or unrealistic to think we can win based on recent and/or current teams.

 

[Baron Winnebago]

Lots of you are giving way too much thought to hypothetical matchups featuring teams that will lose/return players that are unknowable at the moment while trying to forecast wins next season for a team that can still finish anywhere between 3-9 and 8-4. I can entertain almost any hypothetical but damn

 

[Kaladin]

Lots of you are giving way too much thought to hypothetical matchups featuring teams that will lose/return players that are unknowable at the moment while trying to forecast wins next season for a team that can still finish anywhere between 3-9 and 8-4. I can entertain almost any hypothetical but damn

 

[That SOB Van Owen]

9-3 if frost is retained.

4-8 if not.

 

[ChocaEgg]

9-3 if frost is retained.

4-8 if not.

 

[KidsSeeGhosts]

Domann will be a big loss. I feel good about what Fisher can do with the secondary and a lot of dudes have gotten snaps there, but Domann is a pretty unique player and there will be a learning curve.

Hope Daniels, Allen and TV come back. Biggest variance is probably at QB. Could have a very, very good offense w/ Adrian back or a high level transfer.

 

[Chi7397]

Based on the last 10 years of NU football? You really think 10 years ago matters in 2022? You're getting bodied here, pal.

Breakdown the OU and UM matchups for 2022 and tell us why they are unwinnable or unrealistic to think we can win based on recent and/or current teams.

i didn’t even say UM was unwinnable so not sure where that’s coming from - maybe Ou won’t be unwinnable but they’ll still be a significantly more talented and better coached team than Nebraska, just like they have been for the last decade.

and yeah I do think 10 years of being an extremely mediocre team does matter - every year people predict Nebraska to win a lot more games than they actually win because any 50-50 game or even some 25-75 games always get put in the win column - y’all want to be unrealistic and have a kool aid driven circle jerk, then that’s fine - I’ll step away from the convo and let you all proceed. 12 wins or bust next year - no doubt.

 

[Bootleg11]

Who steps in for Domann, Williams, Dismuke, Daniels, CTB (if he leaves), Stille, etc?

Lots of question marks on defense.

I think all of those guys minus Domann are easily replaceable. That’s not to say those aren’t good players, they are, but they aren’t irreplaceable. Replacing that hybrid position has me interested in the direction the defense takes next year

 

[Alcaus]

I think all of those guys minus Domann are easily replaceable. That’s not to say those aren’t good players, they are, but they aren’t irreplaceable. Replacing that hybrid position has me interested in the direction the defense takes next year

Sure, there are bodies that can step in and replace those guys but not the experience. A Domann hybrid will be interesting (Gifford/Wright? No idea).

Maybe experience doesn’t matter in the scheme of things but I think it’s pretty big.

 

[Bootleg11]

Sure, there are bodies that can step in and replace those guys but not the experience. A Domann hybrid will be interesting (Gifford/Wright? No idea).

Maybe experience doesn’t matter in the scheme of things but I think it’s pretty big.

No doubt it can be valuable. I think they have recruited well at the positions and if we trust the defensive staff those guys should be ready to step in.

 

[Alcaus]

No doubt it can be valuable. I think they have recruited well at the positions and if we trust the defensive staff those guys should be ready to step in.

So are you expecting a drop off, improvement, or continuation regarding the defense?

I don’t know what a great method of measuring that is but I’m expecting a drop off. Not sure how it can be avoided losing 6 or so super seniors.

 

[Kaladin]

Losing Domann and Daniels is big because they're the two best players on our defense and we don't have anyone to replace them at this point. Losing Williams and Dismuke is big because they have so much experience. Farmer and NPG (or maybe Johnson) will step into those roles and I assume they'll do well but they might have a rough go of it against Oklahoma. The good news is that Oklahoma is really the only pass happy offense that we will play in 2022. But that's also why losing Daniels is bad for us, because we won't have a solid nose tackle in 2022, unless Nash is actually ready.

 

[Bootleg11]

So are you expecting a drop off, improvement, or continuation regarding the defense?

I don’t know what a great method of measuring that is but I’m expecting a drop off. Not sure how it can be avoided losing 6 or so super seniors.

Are we sure Taylor-Britt is leaving? Isn’t he a junior?
As far as better/worse/same. Each team is different. I have no idea, but I think there is some really talented young guys.

 

[Alcaus]

Are we sure Taylor-Britt is leaving? Isn’t he a junior?
As far as better/worse/same. Each team is different. I have no idea, but I think there is some really talented young guys.

I don't think CTB should/could leave at this point. I don't think his draft stock has improved much this year but I'm certainly no scout.

There is definitely some young talent at these positions.

 

[Kaladin]

The current offensive efficiency ranking of our 2022 Big 10 opponents:

Michigan - 7
Minny -73
Cockeye - 79
Purdue - 81
Illinois - 86
Indiana - 88
Wisconsin - 95
Rutgers - 101
Northwestern - 106

We might end up having a decent defense in 2022, rankings wise, if only because the offenses we will face in 2022 simply won't be that good.

 

[Bootleg11]

I don't think CTB should/could leave at this point. I don't think his draft stock has improved much this year but I'm certainly no scout.

There is definitely some young talent at these positions.

I don't disagree on CTB. I am also not a scout. But he hasn't stuck out to me this year. I don't think he's bad. If he returns...awesome. If he doesn't....he's replaceable. I feel that way about Daniels too. I love how Daniels has played this year. I think it's a great story how he's transformed his body. Really is a testament to his hard work and we gotta give some credit to the S&C staff, nutrition and the DL coach for him. But if he leaves, I think Nebraska is comfortable with what they have there.

Really the only place I worry about on defense is Domann's spot. Just a rare talent there, not irreplaceable but a lot harder to find those hybrid guys that are that good.