Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Bears are out hard

 

[LoudHogRider]

Nvda is saving my bacon.
#1 holding is up 4.7%
I'm down 1.3%

I'm getting slaughtered everywhere else

I'm picking up steam. Down less than $5K right now. Normally, I'd be kinda pissed about that, but on a day like today I'm taking the "win". So far. 🤞

Edited for today's winners and losers:

Winners:
AMD, APPN, AVLR, BAND, CRWD, FVRR, LMND, NNOX, PINS, SPOT, UVXY

Losers:
AAPL, BRK.B, MA, GDLC, MGNI, NNDM, NMG, NOW, PYPL, RIOT, SIVB

 

[God is a Husker]

If I wasn't so overweight retail TSCO looks attractive. Great quarter just everybody shitting themselves and selling.

Beat sales
Beat earnings

6% selloff

Tractor Supply is in for a bad harvest today despite great results in its Q2 earnings report​

10:52 AM ET, 07/19/2021 - Briefing.com
Tractor Supply (TSCO -6%) is in for a bad harvest today despite posting great results in its Q2 earnings report. The retail supplier of light farming equipment and other home improvement products beat on earnings and revenues and raised its FY21 EPS, revenue, and comps guidance. These results also marked its fifth straight quarter of double-digit revenue growth and its second straight quarter of double-digit EPS beats.
So why is TSCO stuck in the mud today?
In our view, we think it has less to do with concerns about its earnings report than with other circumstances. TSCO is more a victim of an overall market selloff this morning on concerns about rising COVID cases, primarily brought on by the Delta variant. With news about Olympic athletes testing positive for the virus and the UK's Prime Minister going into self-quarantine after exposure, investors are uneasy about the start to Q2 earnings season, and TSCO's impressive earnings result is not enough to curb this uneasiness. Diving into Q2 earnings, TSCO posted adjusted earnings of $3.19 per share, beating the consensus by $0.22. Even more impressively, revenue grew 13.4% yr/yr to $3.6 bln despite lapping a quarter last year that saw 34.9% revenue growth. TSCO has yet to experience negative revenue growth even during the pandemic, which we think is important to note if COVID cases begin to tick up. Comp sales also jumped +10.5%. We think TSCO falls into the brick-and-mortar category that Amazon (AMZN) has found difficult to capture market share from, given the type of products it sells. Stores such as TSCO, Home Depot (HD), and Lowe's (LOW) have proven that customers prefer to purchase light farming equipment, home improvement, and garden maintenance products in person. Consumers' in-person preference does not mean that TSCO has not also been improving its e-commerce offerings. TSCO's e-commerce sales saw triple-digit percentage growth for the fourth consecutive quarter. Its mobile app, launched less than a year ago, already makes up over 10% of total e-commerce sales. Looking ahead, TSCO raised its revenue guidance to $12.1-12.3 bln, up from its previous guidance issued last quarter of $11.4-11.7 bln. It also sees comp growth at +11-13%, up from +5-8%. Lastly, TSCO raised its EPS guidance to $7.70-8.00, up from $7.05-7.40. Revenue and EPS guidance are well above the consensus, even at the lower end of each range.
Bottom line, the market-wide selloff is hurting the stock's performance following an otherwise excellent earnings report from TSCO. With concerns surrounding the Delta variant rising, investors may be thinking that TSCO could experience more challenges if the country reverts to any sort of lockdown environment. However, given its robust revenue growth during FY20, we do not think this will lead to decreased guidance, especially given TSCO's product portfolio. With 47% of revenue from its Livestock and Pet segment and 21% from its Hardware, Tools, and Truck segment, the company may find that even as COVID cases begin to rise, its defensive products should provide a cushion against any potential recession.

Personally, I have been very skeptical of TSC because I don't like their corporate plan after acquiring Orschelns.


When there is a M&A of a chief market competitor successful firms make a quick decision on if they will kill or keep the new company.

TSC has Orschelns in purgatory while they bleed supply lines down because they are afraid to break any contracts early. (because it can give other suppliers with contracts still running an opening for anticipatory repudiation lawsuits)

The problem is TSC and Orschelns operate not only in the same exact particular area retail, but often have brick and mortar branches very close to each other. Fighting against yourself for market share and having twice the overhead = no bueno.



TSC has to either a) kill Orschelns ASAP and fold it into TSC; or b) decide to keep them alive but specialized in a niche of their retail sector AND ALSO implementing a radius exclusion policy to prevent TSC/Orschelns brick and mortar overlap. In areas with both flags, pick the "winner" property and sell/rent the other. (rent would be good so you don't have a competitor like Bomgaars etc move into the abandoned property)
Ex: McCook has a TSC and an Orschelns about a mile from each other, the Orschelns property is actually a better location.

As far as pushing Orschelns into a more niche market, I'm not sure if they could. TSC's no-Gun policy has already been implementing at Orschelns so that market is apparently a no-go. Less wiggle room than say Bass Pro and Cabelas who clearly each had a niche lane where a natural divide could occur. (one of the better M&As for a heavy brick and mortar based corp structure I have ever seen, Johnny Morris is legit)

 

[Pipe Line]

People on RSS in a stocks thread worried the CFB season could be in jeopardy again due to COVID. Good god. Like it didn't just happen right in the middle of fearporn fest.

 

[God is a Husker]

People on RSS in a stocks thread worried the CFB season could be in jeopardy again due to COVID. Good god. Like it didn't just happen right in the middle of fearporn fest.

Playing a required amount of conference games, sharing revenue, maintaining certain athletic programs, requiring certain academic standards, etc etc. these are the obligations Big 10 members (Neb) must perform and the conditions members cannot break. Nowhere in the contract does the Big 10 have the ability to arbitrarily require additional obligations and/or additional conditions on members.


If the Big 10 says no non-conf games again or no fans again I want Turd and UNL to tell Kevin Warren to go fuck himself.

Make Kevin Warren and the Big 10 file a suit for breach of contract and see how that works out.

Show me on the 4 corners where Nebraska is barred from scheduling and playing its own non-conf games so long as it performs the rest of its obligations.

Show me where the conference can decide how many fans are allowed at certain events.
(Hypo: What if B1G decided night games and games over 85 degrees are a health hazard and no fans can attend?)


Play non-conf games, play with a full stadium, send the correct media revenue split (even if only local PPV or radio) to the B1G office in full compliance with membership obligations.

Nebraska has full performance and didn’t break any conditions. File for breach Kevin Warren you cunt. The boys at Kutak Rock would love to dust it up against your Chicago firm.

 

[slattimer]

Chevron Put. Up 2000%

 

[BingoDingo]

Chevron Put. Up 2000%

Gonna let it ride a bit more?

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

People on RSS in a stocks thread worried the CFB season could be in jeopardy again due to COVID. Good god. Like it didn't just happen right in the middle of fearporn fest.

Somebody just needs to tell them covids over and to get a new cause

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Chevron Put. Up 2000%

GiddyUp

 

[Toe]

I'm currently down 0.8% today. At least the Russell 2000 rebounded a bit from where it was this morning. I'm still planning to reduce my R2k-linked fund, though - too damn volatile.

 

[HCFord1]

Am I the only one who feels like there are literally no attractive destinations for cash at this time? Everything seems like it could drop 10%+ easily.

 

[Pipe Line]

Playing a required amount of conference games, sharing revenue, maintaining certain athletic programs, requiring certain academic standards, etc etc. these are the obligations Big 10 members (Neb) must perform and the conditions members cannot break. Nowhere in the contract does the Big 10 have the ability to arbitrarily require additional obligations and/or additional conditions on members.


If the Big 10 says no non-conf games again or no fans again I want Turd and UNL to tell Kevin Warren to go fuck himself.

Make Kevin Warren and the Big 10 file a suit for breach of contract and see how that works out.

Show me on the 4 corners where Nebraska is barred from scheduling and playing its own non-conf games so long as it performs the rest of its obligations.

Show me where the conference can decide how many fans are allowed at certain events.
(Hypo: What if B1G decided night games and games over 85 degrees are a health hazard and no fans can attend?)


Play non-conf games, play with a full stadium, send the correct media revenue split (even if only local PPV or radio) to the B1G office in full compliance with membership obligations.

Nebraska has full performance and didn’t break any conditions. File for breach Kevin Warren you cunt. The boys at Kutak Rock would love to dust it up against your Chicago firm.

Holy shit preach!!!! I especially agree with the 2nd individual statement. Think people are just worried. Don't think media days would still be happening if there was any real danger of anything drastic.

 

[slattimer]

Gonna let it ride a bit more?

Yeah. Tight stop loss on it. If it drops at all. Oh well. Gimme my money. Got another put that is doing well too

 

[slattimer]

Am I the only one who feels like there are literally no attractive destinations for cash at this time? Everything seems like it could drop 10%+ easily.

I discovered right now...puts...Had 3 different options I was playing...1 call, 2 puts. Call is underwater, Both puts are up. 1 Put is up 80%, My other puts I sold at +2000% ripper. .16 put, Got up to 3.70 a contract, got stop lossed out at 3.50. My biggest banker of the year.

 

[Toe]

As of the closing bell, I wound up just barely in the black today. I can live with that on a day like this.

 

[Jim14510]

Got up to 3.70 a contract, got stop lossed out at 3.50.

 

[HCFord1]

I discovered right now...puts...Had 3 different options I was playing...1 call, 2 puts. Call is underwater, Both puts are up. 1 Put is up 80%, My other puts I sold at +2000% ripper. .16 put, Got up to 3.70 a contract, got stop lossed out at 3.50. My biggest banker of the year.

Yeah I wish I would’ve bought some a few weeks ago, but premiums are high now so holding puts is riskier than normal.

 

[Toe]

And then as soon as I'm talking shit on Russell 2000 it has a great day. I should do that more often.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

CMG

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

And then as soon as I'm talking shit on Russell 2000 it has a great day. I should do that more often.

I'll buy some calls next time and we can test it