Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[vailhusker]

I would describe the Cybertruck as looking like a prop from a low-budget 1980s sci-fi movie. Like they needed a futuristic-looking truck, so they bolted some plywood and plexiglass to a real truck and painted it silver.

Cybertruck looks like something 90s Lara Croft would drive.

 

[BingoDingo]

who else is getting into TLT?

Looks good. Think we got in on literal bottom.

 

[Jim14510]

Looks good. Think we got in on literal bottom.

Lowest its been since inception?

 

[BingoDingo]

Lowest its been since inception?

Basically.

 

[Toe]

A lot of things are getting cheaper. Here's why you probably haven't noticed.

Inflation is still above the Fed's target, but many items, especially durables, are getting cheaper. Still, many Americans may not feel the impact.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[BingoDingo]

A lot of things are getting cheaper. Here's why you probably haven't noticed.

Inflation is still above the Fed's target, but many items, especially durables, are getting cheaper. Still, many Americans may not feel the impact.

www.businessinsider.com

Yeaaaaah...seems like the concept of Inflation is still tripping up writers.

Business Insider "Economy Fellow"...smh:

 

[Toe]

Yeaaaaah...seems like the concept of Inflation is still tripping up writers.

Business Insider "Economy Fellow"...smh:

View attachment 30627

The writer got their data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov), which does show durable goods falling. 🤷‍♂️

BEA Interactive Data Application

apps.bea.gov

Edit: with sub-categories added

 

[BingoDingo]

The writer got their data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov), which does show durable goods falling. 🤷‍♂️

BEA Interactive Data Application

apps.bea.gov

View attachment 30636

Edit: with sub-categories added

View attachment 30637

Yep, we are using the same data source. Index measures the rate of change, not the level of price...so the rate of change is falling, but price levels are continuing to increase. If you increased at 5% last year and only 2% this year, that isn't falling prices.

 

[greybeardedchild]

Any movement on Big Mac prices yet? Would like to see a 5% decrease on a combo meal by EOY

 

[BingoDingo]

Any movement on Big Mac prices yet? Would like to see a 5% decrease on a combo meal by EOY

Sorry, no...they are using those burger bucks for expansion.

 

[LoudHogRider]

Oh, goody. A strong jobs report (199K) and lower unemployment just released. Should be great for the Fed watchers. Buh bye, rally.

 

[BingoDingo]

Oh, goody. A strong jobs report (199K) and lower unemployment just released. Should be great for the Fed watchers. Buh bye, rally.

Idk, I feel like Tuesday's Nov CPI number is gonna be pretty good and should signal sub-3% by January's series release(as long as December doesn't come in too hot). Hopefully we keep getting strong jobs reports(and wages) and we see CPI fall to the 2.65-2.75 range by end of February.

If consumption/sales don't crater, I feel like that's a non-doom scenario for '24 and probably would confirm the higher end market forecasts. If yields fall enough...who knows...

 

[LoudHogRider]

Idk, I feel like Tuesday's Nov CPI number is gonna be pretty good and should signal sub-3% by January's series release(as long as December doesn't come in too hot). Hopefully we keep getting strong jobs reports(and wages) and we see CPI fall to the 2.65-2.75 range by end of February.

If consumption/sales don't crater, I feel like that's a non-doom scenario for '24 and probably would confirm the higher end market forecasts. If yields fall enough...who knows...

Just checked in on the portfolio. I was surprised to see "green". Pleasantly surprised. I think the market "wants" to run; it's just afraid to.

 

[BingoDingo]

Just checked in on the portfolio. I was surprised to see "green". Pleasantly surprised. I think the market "wants" to run; it's just afraid to.

Yeah, falling unemployment and falling inflation mixed with strong consumption/production...with a Fed indicating cuts as rates have been falling is a wild position to be in, ha. Feels like we will finally know how this is gonna unwind here in the next 3 months or so, though...

 

[BingoDingo]

 

[BingoDingo]

Throwing flaming bags of dog shit on OPEC+'s doorstep for the next few decades will be very enjoyable. Very, very enjoyable.

 

[LoudHogRider]

Throwing flaming bags of dog shit on OPEC+'s doorstep for the next few decades will be very enjoyable. Very, very enjoyable.

It may sound stoopid (it probably is), but I always felt like we KNEW we had a shit ton of oil to keep our economy (and those of our trading partners) alive and well, but since the entire 'alternative energy' frontier is a one-step forward, two-steps back universe right now, we opted to let the drinking straws suck the oil out of the Mideast first, saving ours for "later".

There's a myriad of reasons why this line of thinking really is stoopid (greed, mostly), but it would be heartening to know our leadership was thinking strategically instead of playing checkers all the time.

 

[BingoDingo]

It may sound stoopid (it probably is), but I always felt like we KNEW we had a shit ton of oil to keep our economy (and those of our trading partners) alive and well, but since the entire 'alternative energy' frontier is a one-step forward, two-steps back universe right now, we opted to let the drinking straws suck the oil out of the Mideast first, saving ours for "later".

There's a myriad of reasons why this line of thinking really is stoopid (greed, mostly), but it would be heartening to know our leadership was thinking strategically instead of playing checkers all the time.

Yeah, I mean...it was significantly cheaper to buy foreign oil than to produce it domestically up until shale...once the shale boom happened, it was off to the races. What's crazy is that we are only running at about 65% capacity right now, lol. Capital discipline will pay off...

 

[LoudHogRider]

Yeah, I mean...it was significantly cheaper to buy foreign oil than to produce it domestically up until shale...once the shale boom happened, it was off to the races. What's crazy is that we are only running at about 65% capacity right now, lol. Capital discipline will pay off...

It's also an interesting conundrum trying to determine which TYPE of oil to process within our refinery infrastructure: heavy, Saudi crude or our own light, sweet crude.

It also may be why we're suddenly interested in the welfare of Guyana (which the Russian/Chinese-backed Venezuelans have suddenly taken an interest in adding to their sovereign borders.

 

[Toe]

Yeah, I mean...it was significantly cheaper to buy foreign oil than to produce it domestically up until shale...once the shale boom happened, it was off to the races.

It's a delicate balance, though. North American shale is only viable if oil prices are above a certain level. If OPEC increases production and prices fall, you'll see a lot of layoffs in North Dakota and Texas.