Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[Kaladin]

Just got a big check from my former employer ESOP to roll over into my IRA.

I am a know nothing about stocks and investing. Right now I have FEFFX (Fidelity) and VHYAX (Vangaurd).

I am curious if anyone has any advice for the roll over check? Should I put it in one of the two I already have, or find a new fund to put it in?

find a way to cash it out and then buy a plane ticket to the Jamaica

Have sex with as many Jamaican woman as possible

Grow a huge beard

Return to the United States one year from now a happier, fuller, larger, beardier, wiser man

this is the way

 

[Jim14510]

find a way to cash it out and then buy a plane ticket to the Jamaica

Have sex with as many Jamaican woman as possible

Grow a huge beard

Return to the United States one year from now a happier, fuller, larger, beardier, wiser man

this is the way

At about 50% tax at least 40%. Nebraska one of the few states that tacks on penalty at the state level for early distribution.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Looking at buying 2 very different companies...

1. $Crox - Low P/E, Usually beats earnings, High ROE, etc... con in my eyes is a healthy amount of debt. LTD to Equity is 168%.
2. $ARLP - Coal company with a healthy dividend (14% with a 214% coverage ratio). Also, balance sheet is trending the right way with liabilities staying in the same ball park, but assets growing. Big concern is what does coal's future look like? I frankly think coal will be around longer than most think, but definitely a concern. Probably why it is trading a a 3.5 P/E.

Thoughts?

 

[dsbigred1]

Looking at buying 2 very different companies...

1. $Crox - Low P/E, Usually beats earnings, High ROE, etc... con in my eyes is a healthy amount of debt. LTD to Equity is 168%.
2. $ARLP - Coal company with a healthy dividend (14% with a 214% coverage ratio). Also, balance sheet is trending the right way with liabilities staying in the same ball park, but assets growing. Big concern is what does coal's future look like? I frankly think coal will be around longer than most think, but definitely a concern. Probably why it is trading a a 3.5 P/E.

Thoughts?

I could be completely wrong, but I feel that coal is going to be necessary until there are significant and widespread infrastructure upgrades. And at that dividend, you are likely still good even if I am completely wrong.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Just got a big check from my former employer ESOP to roll over into my IRA.

I am a know nothing about stocks and investing. Right now I have FEFFX (Fidelity) and VHYAX (Vangaurd).

I am curious if anyone has any advice for the roll over check? Should I put it in one of the two I already have, or find a new fund to put it in?

So, those funds don't really provide you much market diversification really. I'm a big proponent of boring investing - if you're looking at maintaining Vanguard Admiral investments, you should look into VTSAX + VBTLX. That's a total market + bond. You could also look into adding an emerging market fund(VEMAX) and a reit(VGSLX) for a solid mix. If you are absolutely clueless, just contact your IRA folks and get them to put you in a simple target/total fund.

What do you mean they don't provide much diversification? That Fidelity 2040 fund has the following holdings in it....

Equities
47.29%
Fidelity Series Growth Company Fund
8.83%
Fidelity Series Large Cap Stock Fund
8.30%
Fidelity Series Stock Selector Large Cap Value Fund
5.75%
Fidelity Series Opportunistic Insights Fund
5.25%
Fidelity Series Value Discovery Fund
5.12%
Fidelity Series Blue Chip Growth Fund
4.78%
Fidelity Series Large Cap Value Index Fund
2.57%
Fidelity Series Small Cap Opportunities Fund
2.51%
Fidelity Series Intrinsic Opportunities Fund
1.76%
Fidelity Series All-Sector Equity Fund
1.69%
Fidelity Series Small Cap Discovery Fund
0.76%
Fidelity Series Small Cap Core Fund
0.01%
S&P500 EMINI FUT SEP23 ESU3
-0.05%
Commodities
0.75%
Fidelity Series Commodity Strategy Fund
0.75%

Non-U.S. Equities
40.31%
Developed-Markets Equities
26.65%
Fidelity Series International Value Fund
7.43%
Fidelity Series Overseas Fund
7.25%
Fidelity Series International Growth Fund
7.23%
Fidelity Series Canada Fund
2.80%
Fidelity Series International Small Cap Fund
1.95%
MSCI EAFE FUT SP23 MFSU3
-0.01%
Emerging-Markets Equities
13.67%
Fidelity Series Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund
11.61%
Fidelity Series Emerging Markets Fund
2.10%
MSCI EMGMKT FUT SEP23 MESU3
-0.04%

Bonds
14.81%
U.S. Investment-Grade Bond
7.32%
Fidelity Series Investment Grade Bond Fund
2.82%
US 5YR NOTE (CBT) SEP23 FVU3
2.35%
US 10YR FUT (CBT)SEP23 TYU3
2.15%
Long-Term U.S. Treasury Bond
5.44%
Fidelity Series Long-Term Treasury Bond Index Fund
5.44%
U.S. Interm-Term Inflation-Protected Bond
0.00%
U.S. Short-Term Inflation-Protected Bond
0.00%
U.S. Long-Term Inflation-Protected Bond
0.08%
Fidelity Series 5+ Year Inflation-Protected Bond Index Fund
0.08%
High-Yield Debt
0.50%
Fidelity Series High Income Fund
0.50%
Floating-Rate Debt
0.09%
Fidelity Series Floating Rate High Income Fund
0.09%
International Bond
0.59%
Fidelity Series International Developed Markets Bond Index Fund
0.56%
Fidelity Series International Credit Fund
0.04%
Emerging-Markets Debt
0.65%
Fidelity Series Emerging Markets Debt Fund
0.49%
Fidelity Series Emerging Markets Debt Local Currency Fund
0.16%
Real Estate Debt
0.13%
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund
0.13

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

I could be completely wrong, but I feel that coal is going to be necessary until there are significant and widespread infrastructure upgrades. And at that dividend, you are likely still good even if I am completely wrong.

That is kind of my thoughts.

 

[BingoDingo]

What do you mean they don't provide much diversification? That Fidelity 2040 fund has the following holdings in it....

Equities
47.29%
Fidelity Series Growth Company Fund
8.83%
Fidelity Series Large Cap Stock Fund
8.30%
Fidelity Series Stock Selector Large Cap Value Fund
5.75%
Fidelity Series Opportunistic Insights Fund
5.25%
Fidelity Series Value Discovery Fund
5.12%
Fidelity Series Blue Chip Growth Fund
4.78%
Fidelity Series Large Cap Value Index Fund
2.57%
Fidelity Series Small Cap Opportunities Fund
2.51%
Fidelity Series Intrinsic Opportunities Fund
1.76%
Fidelity Series All-Sector Equity Fund
1.69%
Fidelity Series Small Cap Discovery Fund
0.76%
Fidelity Series Small Cap Core Fund
0.01%
S&P500 EMINI FUT SEP23 ESU3
-0.05%
Commodities
0.75%
Fidelity Series Commodity Strategy Fund
0.75%

Non-U.S. Equities
40.31%
Developed-Markets Equities
26.65%
Fidelity Series International Value Fund
7.43%
Fidelity Series Overseas Fund
7.25%
Fidelity Series International Growth Fund
7.23%
Fidelity Series Canada Fund
2.80%
Fidelity Series International Small Cap Fund
1.95%
MSCI EAFE FUT SP23 MFSU3
-0.01%
Emerging-Markets Equities
13.67%
Fidelity Series Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund
11.61%
Fidelity Series Emerging Markets Fund
2.10%
MSCI EMGMKT FUT SEP23 MESU3
-0.04%

Bonds
14.81%
U.S. Investment-Grade Bond
7.32%
Fidelity Series Investment Grade Bond Fund
2.82%
US 5YR NOTE (CBT) SEP23 FVU3
2.35%
US 10YR FUT (CBT)SEP23 TYU3
2.15%
Long-Term U.S. Treasury Bond
5.44%
Fidelity Series Long-Term Treasury Bond Index Fund
5.44%
U.S. Interm-Term Inflation-Protected Bond
0.00%
U.S. Short-Term Inflation-Protected Bond
0.00%
U.S. Long-Term Inflation-Protected Bond
0.08%
Fidelity Series 5+ Year Inflation-Protected Bond Index Fund
0.08%
High-Yield Debt
0.50%
Fidelity Series High Income Fund
0.50%
Floating-Rate Debt
0.09%
Fidelity Series Floating Rate High Income Fund
0.09%
International Bond
0.59%
Fidelity Series International Developed Markets Bond Index Fund
0.56%
Fidelity Series International Credit Fund
0.04%
Emerging-Markets Debt
0.65%
Fidelity Series Emerging Markets Debt Fund
0.49%
Fidelity Series Emerging Markets Debt Local Currency Fund
0.16%
Real Estate Debt
0.13%
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund
0.13

Well, his ticker "FEFFX" didn't bring anything up - so I don't know, was that a target fund(I'm a Vanguard guy, myself)? Did he mean FFFFX? The other fund is a High Yield Div, so yeah. ..that's why I said he might look into a target fund, ha.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Well, his ticker "FEFFX" didn't bring anything up - so I don't know, was that a target fund(I'm a Vanguard guy, myself)? Did he mean FFFFX? The other fund is a High Yield Div, so yeah. ..that's why I said he might look into a target fund, ha.

Yeah my search ended up correcting it... I would assume he meant FFFFX


So naturally I am like why does he want more diversification? 🤣

I use vanguard a lot too, but I am also fine with selectively using active management mainly in bonds, small cap and anything international.

 

[Kaladin]

At about 50% tax at least 40%. Nebraska one of the few states that tacks on penalty at the state level for early distribution.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

 

[LoudHogRider]

1,2

 

[Frogsker30]

Yeah my search ended up correcting it... I would assume he meant FFFFX
View attachment 27419

So naturally I am like why does he want more diversification? 🤣

I use vanguard a lot too, but I am also fine with selectively using active management mainly in bonds, small cap and anything international.

Cause I don’t know shit 😂😂😂

 

[Toe]

The Bond Market Has Never Sounded Recession Alarms for This Long

(Bloomberg) -- The US bond market hasn’t flashed recession warnings so consistently for so long in at least six decades. Most Read from BloombergCaesars Entertainment Paid Millions to Hackers in AttackRay Dalio Says He Doesn’t Want to Hold Bonds, Cash ‘Is Good’Russian Elite Bring Back $50...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[BingoDingo]

The Bond Market Has Never Sounded Recession Alarms for This Long

(Bloomberg) -- The US bond market hasn’t flashed recession warnings so consistently for so long in at least six decades. Most Read from BloombergCaesars Entertainment Paid Millions to Hackers in AttackRay Dalio Says He Doesn’t Want to Hold Bonds, Cash ‘Is Good’Russian Elite Bring Back $50...

finance.yahoo.com

I feel like yield curves are predictive in normal rate environments where the inversion is predicated by falling long term rates(signifying contracting growth)...but is it really predictive now? Seems like it's simply a product of the velocity of rate hikes...

With that being said...distortions will not go unpunished and eventually this yield curve inversion will "predict" a recession again, lol.

 

[BingoDingo]

It's pretty crazy to see Amazon hiring the equivalent of about 3 months worth of total US job gains...for seasonal work. How do they even fill that many positions so quickly? If another World War ever comes, Amazon is managing our logistics...

 

[Pepe Silvia]

 

[BingoDingo]

This was literally and exactly 1 fucking year ago.

Yeah, I don't disagree on any of that, but I think it's pretty clear that the market hasn't priced in the type of levels that multiple Fed members have explicitly stated(sustained 4%+ fed funds) the past couple weeks. When Mester is basically going out and telling multiple outlets that cuts in 2023 are likely unrealistic, it seems to me a warning call on the equity side.

10% drop later...

The Fed is now expected to keep raising rates then hold them there, CNBC survey shows

Wall Street finally looks to be embracing the idea that the Fed will hike rates into restrictive territory and stay there.

www.cnbc.com

Well, looks like we are all on the same page now.

Oh, btw.,..Mester is the Queen and we never listen to her...

Fed's Mester sees another rate hike, says rate cuts may have to wait

Beating inflation will probably require one more U.S. interest-rate hike and then going on hold for "a while," Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Loretta Mester said on Saturday, adding that she may reassess her earlier view that rate cuts could start in late 2024.

www.reuters.com

 

[cwessel76]

It's pretty crazy to see Amazon hiring the equivalent of about 3 months worth of total US job gains...for seasonal work. How do they even fill that many positions so quickly? If another World War ever comes, Amazon is managing our logistics...

They hire anybody with a pulse.

 

[BingoDingo]

They hire anybody with a pulse.

Yeah, my buddy is some regional logistics manager at Amazon and I was talking to him yesterday and he said they hired 10k people in 2 weeks(!!!) for a new site. It's crazy how seasonal warehouse work is...wild.

 

[Toe]

Yeah, some of these 'experts' are still predicting a rate cut by the end of this year? I'd say next summer at the earliest.

US homebuyers are waiting for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. Here's when 10 experts say it's going to happen.

Business Insider compiled 10 expert predictions for when the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut will come and bring relief to homebuyers.

www.businessinsider.com