Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[BingoDingo]

I mean I'm no rocket scientist but when I look at this and many of the other FRED chart's it sure as shit doesn't look like it's coming down to me

That chart is the CPI index, not the headline inflation rate. If that index goes down, that's really bad...

 

[cwessel76]

Do you spend the same amount on housing as you do office supplies? That's the point of weighting.

It's govt so they probably fuck with it a little bit in their favor but most of the changes are for legit reasons.

3.2% for the year is pretty close to normal. I'm not sure deflation would be a positive at this point.

I was always under the impression that deflation is always a bad thing, is that a correct assumption?

 

[Jim14510]

I was always under the impression that deflation is always a bad thing, is that a correct assumption?

I don't think you can attach "always" to that. Generally would be a good word.

 

[2010sarenevercomingback]

Another good earnings call from $YETI too.

CPI has something like a dozen manual "adjustment" points where BLS can put in their own numbers, or adjust things without any data point required, based solely on the judgment of a couple government employees. When you dive into how the work is actually done in real life, it's pretty obviously not a comprehensive & mathematical data point, it's an estimation that lives in a very wide orbit around the actual number, the closeness of which is based on the intelligence, ethics, & worldview of a mostly-anonymous group of bureaucrats.

And that's without the inherent bias towards it being a "cost of survival" rather than "cost of living" measurement (e.g. people eating more chicken & less steak because of jumps in prices gets downplayed because the basket of goods is altered in the core calculation to include less steak).

 

[jaihawk]

Another good earnings call from $YETI too.

I can tell you that my wife is probably single-handedly accounting for all of the Stanley cup sales out there... Good lord, how many freaking water cups do you need, especially when I never see you drinking water!!!

 

[cwessel76]

I can tell you that my wife is probably single-handedly accounting for all of the Stanley cup sales out there... Good lord, how many freaking water cups do you need, especially when I never see you drinking water!!!

Thank God it’s not just me. My wife buys a new fancy water cup every week for no reason whatsoever.

 

[greybeardedchild]

Thank God it’s not just me. My wife buys a new fancy water cup every week for no reason whatsoever.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/KXVxpZFUgyg

Relevant

 

[jaihawk]

Thank God it’s not just me. My wife buys a new fancy water cup every week for no reason whatsoever.

I just don't get it. I made the mistake once of asking if water in one cup tasted different versus another... Probably should have learned my lesson from when I asked why she needed 24 million pairs of tennis shoes and was told that she needed to match them to her workout outfit... Girl, my all black On's go with everything!

 

[Jim14510]

I can tell you that my wife is probably single-handedly accounting for all of the Stanley cup sales out there... Good lord, how many freaking water cups do you need, especially when I never see you drinking water!!!

Thank God it’s not just me. My wife buys a new fancy water cup every week for no reason whatsoever.

Nice to see this is a common problem. We were at Costco the other day and they had a couple "on sale". She put in the cart and I put back on the shelf. Thought there was going to be a fight over $15 in the middle of Costco. She conceded though.

 

[BingoDingo]

CPI has something like a dozen manual "adjustment" points where BLS can put in their own numbers, or adjust things without any data point required, based solely on the judgment of a couple government employees. When you dive into how the work is actually done in real life, it's pretty obviously not a comprehensive & mathematical data point, it's an estimation that lives in a very wide orbit around the actual number, the closeness of which is based on the intelligence, ethics, & worldview of a mostly-anonymous group of bureaucrats.

And that's without the inherent bias towards it being a "cost of survival" rather than "cost of living" measurement (e.g. people eating more chicken & less steak because of jumps in prices gets downplayed because the basket of goods is altered in the core calculation to include less steak).

The "adjustments" are the regressed, normalized weights based on the basket's proportionate consumption %. No single person or group of people are doing this...it is a derived weight given consumption for the previous 12 months and these weights are updated annually, right? It is pretty comprehensive in the sense that we are adjusting weights to given changes in spending behavior...and it is absolutely a mathematical data point.

Additionally, the weights don't contribute at all to the bearing on cost of living. Cost of living is a function of income and spending...not income and prices. If it did make an impact, it would imply that everyone is either locked or holding in the same consumption behavior regardless of the change in prices.

 

[cwessel76]

Nice to see this is a common problem. We were at Costco the other day and they had a couple "on sale". She put in the cart and I put back on the shelf. Thought there was going to be a fight over $15 in the middle of Costco. She conceded though.

“Sir, this is a Costco.”

 

[2010sarenevercomingback]

The "adjustments" are the regressed, normalized weights based on the basket's proportionate consumption %. No single person or group of people are doing this...it is a derived weight given consumption for the previous 12 months and these weights are updated annually, right? It is pretty comprehensive in the sense that we are adjusting weights to given changes in spending behavior...and it is absolutely a mathematical data point.

Additionally, the weights don't contribute at all to the bearing on cost of living. Cost of living is a function of income and spending...not income and prices. If it did make an impact, it would imply that everyone is either locked or holding in the same consumption behavior regardless of the change in prices.

Straining out a gnat & swallowing a camel here.

There being some adjustment to consumer habits over time is a given. People buying fewer pagers than they did 25 years ago is still vastly different than saying prices haven't gone up because peoples' shopping carts full of rice and beans during a depression (derived weight given consumption) costs about the same as a cart full of steak, fresh produce, & other perishables that were the grocery basket of goods from a booming economy a few years prior.

And that's WITHOUT the dozen or so manual "adjustments" that can be made outside of any formula. Jim at BLS calls Rhode Island grocery store to find out what their price is on a dozen eggs, and nobody answers? BLS assumes/estimates. Store changed inventory/type/quantity since the last input? BLS manually chooses whether to accept, exclude, or modify. Outlier found in data that's not within an expected range? BLS can determine it was a fluke & exclude it. Data from this month produces a crazy spike in some area? BLS can tweak formula.

There are obviously difficulties with a pure numerical expression of exactly how much more of a fiat currency it takes to trade for a changing array of goods & services. But like all of them, CPI is absolutely filled with guesswork, assumptions, human bias, and a plethora of ways for a government with a financial incentive to keep the numbers in a certain range to nudge the outcome in a certain direction.

 

[BingoDingo]

Straining out a gnat & swallowing a camel here.

There being some adjustment to consumer habits over time is a given. People buying fewer pagers than they did 25 years ago is still vastly different than saying prices haven't gone up because peoples' shopping carts full of rice and beans during a depression (derived weight given consumption) costs about the same as a cart full of steak, fresh produce, & other perishables that were the grocery basket of goods from a booming economy a few years prior.

And that's WITHOUT the dozen or so manual "adjustments" that can be made outside of any formula. Jim at BLS calls Rhode Island grocery store to find out what their price is on a dozen eggs, and nobody answers? BLS assumes/estimates. Store changed inventory/type/quantity since the last input? BLS manually chooses whether to accept, exclude, or modify. Outlier found in data that's not within an expected range? BLS can determine it was a fluke & exclude it. Data from this month produces a crazy spike in some area? BLS can tweak formula.

There are obviously difficulties with a pure numerical expression of exactly how much more of a fiat currency it takes to trade for a changing array of goods & services. But like all of them, CPI is absolutely filled with guesswork, assumptions, human bias, and a plethora of ways for a government with a financial incentive to keep the numbers in a certain range to nudge the outcome in a certain direction.

Well, so...the "adjustments" are the weights. They weight to consumption spending. That's the adjustments. Idk what other adjustments you're talking about. Seasonal adjustments? Also, the Fed does not call grocery stores. They obtain data sharing agreements with vendors and grocers directly. There is no assumption, guesswork, or human bias(outside of measurement error)...it's all an automated process.

Is the argument you're making that they shouldn't adjust weights on basket goods? They should treat all consumption equal?

 

[dsbigred1]

Nice to see this is a common problem. We were at Costco the other day and they had a couple "on sale". She put in the cart and I put back on the shelf. Thought there was going to be a fight over $15 in the middle of Costco. She conceded though.

Haha! Had a similar circumstance where she liked this leopard print one and put it in our basket. I told her how stupid it would be to buy something that she’ll probably get 4 of around Christmas and maybe a couple more for her birthday… it has become the go-to gift when people have no clue what to get you.
Anyway, she didn’t like my tone or delivery and gave me the silent treatment. After 2 glorious days of silence, she asked, “do you even know why I’m mad at you?”
After explaining exactly why, and that I was just appreciative of the quiet, and not getting 50 random texts about nonsense each day, she went right back to talking about how much she liked that stupid cup. 3 days later it was on the counter. All in all, I’d say it was a win-win.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

I can tell you that my wife is probably single-handedly accounting for all of the Stanley cup sales out there... Good lord, how many freaking water cups do you need, especially when I never see you drinking water!!!

Maybe I am cheap... but I am not paying $45 for a fucking water cup...

FYI Sams had a 2 pack of Nebraska knockoff brand stanley cups for like $40

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

UPS drivers be like

 

[cwessel76]

UPS drivers be like

Sounds like their job applicant numbers are going to skyrocket here soon.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

https://www.youtube.com/embed/KXVxpZFUgyg

Relevant

Sent this to Mrs faux....

 

[Jim14510]

Maybe I am cheap... but I am not paying $45 for a fucking water cup...

FYI Sams had a 2 pack of Nebraska knockoff brand stanley cups for like $40

Yeah the Yeti ones are stupid. If there is a difference it isn't close to enough to justify.

Kind of like purses though. All about the name on the outside.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

UPS drivers be like

@HuskerGarrett you going to switch to brown?