NBA Discussion

[Kaladin]

 

[Boondock_St_Sker]

They will be worse defensively. They will likely be better offensively. They were already good offensively. But now they have two of the best (maybe the best) bully ball 6'-8" scorers, distributors and rebounders, the game has ever seen. One still great even at 40, the other only 25. Good luck containing those two, even if they seem redundant, offensively they will be tough.

Luka's injuries and weight/conditioning are an issue. His dad came out yesterday and said Luka could even play yet this week, though. I bet they push that off past the all star break, but you never know, they might want to get this Bron/Luka thing out on the court ASAP if Luka is truly that close to being ready to play.

In the paint, they will get hurt bad, definitely agree.

I don't know that they will be a worse team than they were pre-trade - to be determined. They could hang around about where they are now, a 4 to 6 seed. Or things could go badly - injuries, etc, and they end up being a bubble level team. This trade for the Lakers wasn't about this season.

chances of trading for Djokic???

 

[gtlacey]

This is all bunk.



As I mentioned, I have friends that are deep into the NBA with legitimate league-wide connections. Not going to throw out names, etc. I deleted my previous post as it gave too many hints on the names/people.

To make this simple - star players, especially supestar players - but even just 2nd team, sometimes fringe, all star level players, these players have almost all of the leverage. People/fans mistakenly think that the year this leverage hits is their final contract year. It is actually the year/season before their final contract year.

Teams don't like an open bidding war with disgruntled superstars and shit going public: see the current Jimmy Butler fiasco (although aging stars have far less leverage than in-prime stars). So once a star player makes it known they want out - and their agents know the best time to do this is the year/season before the last year of the contract - then the front office/GM/ownership of the team has a chance to get things done without all the public and team-destroying drama.

Almost always, the star player has a single team as their preferred destination. And both sides (team and player) has it in their best interest to keep things under wraps at this stage - the year before their final contract year.

In this case, there are multiple things that made this deal happen. The biggest is that Luka has long wanted to be a Laker. He (through his agent Bill Duffy) let the Mavs know that Luka wanted the Lakers, and only the Lakers. Sure, teams hope they can either convince the star player to stay and re-sign their new, usually much larger, contract. Or they can convince the star player to open the field a bit more and add several other near-contending level teams as possible destinations. But this rarely happens or works out this way. The team does not have the leverage, the star player does.

So 1), Luka said Lakers and only Lakers.

No 2) is, even if the Mavs could have traded Luka to another team (Luka would have to OK it as no team will take a chance on trading good players + draft picks for a star player who doesn't want to be there), go ahead and name the alternative teams and player(s) that the Mavs could have targeted. The Mavs wanted a top level star defensive big (and AD happens to be a great offensive player too). Mavs are in win-now mode still for the next few years while flat-earth Kyrie is still playing well enough. So what other bigs of AD's caliber could they possiblly have gotten? Bam Adebayo? He's good, but not AD. To end point number 2 - there weren't/aren't many other good options for teams or players that make any sense. They weren't going to get equal value straight up for Luka, so get the best (and HOF level) big they can. And that guy happened to be on the Lakers.

No 3). Relationships. The biggest one being the nearly 50 year friendship between Luka's longtime agent and business partner, Bill Duffy and Lakers owner/CEO Jeanie Buss. That long term friendship was large in this scenario. Other relationshp items: Mark Cuban. Luka trusted Mark Cuban and trusted that Cuban was the type of owner to be willing/able to build a bling level team around Luka. Cuban sold of most of his take in the Mavs several years ago, and Luka has little confidence in the new owners (Adelsons) or the long term direction of team ownership/management.

No 4). Bill Duffy. Duffy is a long-time NBA agent, who is old school and prefers to try to get things done quietly and not have a drama-infused public player auction. Duffy approached Jeanie Buss - not Rob Pelinka - with this idea several weeks ago. That convo got the Lakers owner into thinking more about the possibility of landing that next generational player, than continuing to try to build a better roster around aging (but still great) Lebron and oft-injured (but great and under appreciated) AD. This was the opening for Jeanie Buss to follow in her Dad's footsteps - get those generational talents in Purple and Gold.

So laying all of this out, Luka lost faith in the Cuban-less Mavs org, Luka has for many years wanted to be a Laker (Kobe is his BBall idol), so once Luka and Bill Duffy let the Mavs know that this is what Luka wanted, it gave the Mavs incentive to get it done sooner than later, without the public player-auction drama, and still keep the team contender level with a HOF and still in-prime, but starting to get past his peak, AD. The Mavs did in fat ask for more draft picks and Dalton Knecht, the Lakers rookie whom other teams want. But the Mavs had little to no leverage to get all of that. Should they have gotten more than one first round pick or Dalton Knecht? Probably. But they didn't have the leverage. So they get to keep their team in the hunt with one of the best (probably the best) current HOF NBA defensive Bigs, got a rising young talent in Max Christie, plus a first round pick.

Luka had told the Mavs he was not re-signing his upcoming supermax deal. It is well know Luka is "not all about the money" - he has plenty. So the Mavs moved preemptively on this, got Luka to the team he wanted, got a HOF big, possibly the legit best defensive big in the game, plus a first round pick and rising young wing player, back.

Another big point I need to add here, and it is fairly important, is that Jeanie Buss and the Lakers were tired of being under the thumb of Klutch Sports and Lebron. Klutch is also AD's agent, so this is how the Lakers are moving past Klutch.

Now the question will be - what does Lebron do? He is still an amazing player, even at 40. He just can't be top level as much or for as long. But see his play saturday against the Knicks - no other player in year 22, at 40 yrs old, has ever even come close to being at this level like Lebron is. What I think happens, and am hearing will happen, is Lebron uses the rest of this season and whatever they do in the playoffs to see how the Bron/Luka pairing can fair. The Lakers sorely need a bonafide good defensive starting center, and probably won't get that in the 3 days left before deadline. I think how things shake out in the remainder of the season will determine of Bron bolts or not. He won't have a ton of leverage turning 41 next season, but he will have some. He loves LA and LAL but he also moves to his own tune. Will be intersting to watch.

Thanks for the intel. However, if this is all true, why would he purchase a $15mm home in Dallas? Maybe the report isn't true though.

DCAD updates property records pretty quickly so we'll know soon enough if he did purchase it.

 

[tman87]

chances of trading for Djokic???

Jokic? None.

Unless I am missing who you are referring to.

 

[tman87]

Thanks for the intel. However, if this is all true, why would he purchase a $15mm home in Dallas? Maybe the report isn't true though.

DCAD updates property records pretty quickly so we'll know soon enough if he did purchase it.

Don't know if the house purchase is true. Do know it is true he wanted the Lakers and told Mavs he wasn't signing his supermax extension.

Keep in mind a TON of spin via media (especially X and social media) happens these days. Mavs want to tamp down the outrage, Luka wants to look like he was taken by surprise, Lakers want to look like they weren't shopping AD (they weren't) and this was a no-brainer that fell in their laps (it was). Mavs are the team that needs the spin, Luka just wants to not seem a traitor (dumb, as the NBA is a business at the end of the day, but he wants to preserve face).

Adding this: Bill Duffy (Luka's agent) approached Jeanie Buss and the Lakers with this Luka for AD trade idea a few weeks ago. You think Luka didn't know what his agent was doing?

The Lakers traded AD without AD or his agent (Klutch) knowing. Klutch leaks stuff out consistently, so if they had this info, not only would they leak it/ruin it, but they would then know that the Lakers decided to start the process of cutting ties with Klutch.

Also consider that AD waived his 8 million dollar trade kicker. Players don't do that unless they want to make things more difficult. So once Klutch and AD found out the trade had happened, they decided to not make things any more difficult. AD wanted to be a Laker, but he went to a team that has a deeper roster than the Lakers. So not like the Lakers dumped him to the Wizards.

 

[Boondock_St_Sker]

Jokic? None.

Unless I am missing who you are referring to.

Yes...that guy...my bad, thought it was spelled the "old world" way

 

[gtlacey]

Don't know if the house purchase is true. Do know it is true he wanted the Lakers and told Mavs he wasn't signing his supermax extension.

Keep in mind a TON of spin via media (especially X and social media) happens these days. Mavs want to tamp down the outrage, Luka wants to look like he was taken by surprise, Lakers want to look like they weren't shopping AD (they weren't) and this was a no-brainer that fell in their laps (it was). Mavs are the team that needs the spin, Luka just wants to not seem a traitor (dumb, as the NBA is a business at the end of the day, but he wants to preserve face).

Yeah, I agree. I'm not sure if it's true or not. I still think Nico is a bad GM and should've gotten more for Luka.

Worse players than Luka got 3-4 first round picks in addition to some decent players. Also, Luka is losing about $20mm a year going to LA (between losing the supermax and state income tax), I know you said he doesn't care about money, but I think he would care about that much.

Gobert = 4 first rounders
Mikail Bridges= 4 first rounders
Donovan Mitchell = 3 first rounders
De'Aaron Fox = 3 first rounders
Durant (probably the only one better than Luka) = 4 first rounders

I think your nugs are onto something, but I think there's another part of the story they're not telling.

 

[Southendzonehusker]

This is all bunk.



As I mentioned, I have friends that are deep into the NBA with legitimate league-wide connections. Not going to throw out names, etc. I deleted my previous post as it gave too many hints on the names/people.

To make this simple - star players, especially supestar players - but even just 2nd team, sometimes fringe, all star level players, these players have almost all of the leverage. People/fans mistakenly think that the year this leverage hits is their final contract year. It is actually the year/season before their final contract year.

Teams don't like an open bidding war with disgruntled superstars and shit going public: see the current Jimmy Butler fiasco (although aging stars have far less leverage than in-prime stars). So once a star player makes it known they want out - and their agents know the best time to do this is the year/season before the last year of the contract - then the front office/GM/ownership of the team has a chance to get things done without all the public and team-destroying drama.

Almost always, the star player has a single team as their preferred destination. And both sides (team and player) has it in their best interest to keep things under wraps at this stage - the year before their final contract year.

In this case, there are multiple things that made this deal happen. The biggest is that Luka has long wanted to be a Laker. He (through his agent Bill Duffy) let the Mavs know that Luka wanted the Lakers, and only the Lakers. Sure, teams hope they can either convince the star player to stay and re-sign their new, usually much larger, contract. Or they can convince the star player to open the field a bit more and add several other near-contending level teams as possible destinations. But this rarely happens or works out this way. The team does not have the leverage, the star player does.

So 1), Luka said Lakers and only Lakers.

No 2) is, even if the Mavs could have traded Luka to another team (Luka would have to OK it as no team will take a chance on trading good players + draft picks for a star player who doesn't want to be there), go ahead and name the alternative teams and player(s) that the Mavs could have targeted. The Mavs wanted a top level star defensive big (and AD happens to be a great offensive player too). Mavs are in win-now mode still for the next few years while flat-earth Kyrie is still playing well enough. So what other bigs of AD's caliber could they possiblly have gotten? Bam Adebayo? He's good, but not AD. To end point number 2 - there weren't/aren't many other good options for teams or players that make any sense. They weren't going to get equal value straight up for Luka, so get the best (and HOF level) big they can. And that guy happened to be on the Lakers.

No 3). Relationships. The biggest one being the nearly 50 year friendship between Luka's longtime agent and business partner, Bill Duffy and Lakers owner/CEO Jeanie Buss. That long term friendship was large in this scenario. Other relationshp items: Mark Cuban. Luka trusted Mark Cuban and trusted that Cuban was the type of owner to be willing/able to build a bling level team around Luka. Cuban sold of most of his take in the Mavs several years ago, and Luka has little confidence in the new owners (Adelsons) or the long term direction of team ownership/management.

No 4). Bill Duffy. Duffy is a long-time NBA agent, who is old school and prefers to try to get things done quietly and not have a drama-infused public player auction. Duffy approached Jeanie Buss - not Rob Pelinka - with this idea several weeks ago. That convo got the Lakers owner into thinking more about the possibility of landing that next generational player, than continuing to try to build a better roster around aging (but still great) Lebron and oft-injured (but great and under appreciated) AD. This was the opening for Jeanie Buss to follow in her Dad's footsteps - get those generational talents in Purple and Gold.

So laying all of this out, Luka lost faith in the Cuban-less Mavs org, Luka has for many years wanted to be a Laker (Kobe is his BBall idol), so once Luka and Bill Duffy let the Mavs know that this is what Luka wanted, it gave the Mavs incentive to get it done sooner than later, without the public player-auction drama, and still keep the team contender level with a HOF and still in-prime, but starting to get past his peak, AD. The Mavs did in fat ask for more draft picks and Dalton Knecht, the Lakers rookie whom other teams want. But the Mavs had little to no leverage to get all of that. Should they have gotten more than one first round pick or Dalton Knecht? Probably. But they didn't have the leverage. So they get to keep their team in the hunt with one of the best (probably the best) current HOF NBA defensive Bigs, got a rising young talent in Max Christie, plus a first round pick.

Luka had told the Mavs he was not re-signing his upcoming supermax deal. It is well know Luka is "not all about the money" - he has plenty. So the Mavs moved preemptively on this, got Luka to the team he wanted, got a HOF big, possibly the legit best defensive big in the game, plus a first round pick and rising young wing player, back.

Another big point I need to add here, and it is fairly important, is that Jeanie Buss and the Lakers were tired of being under the thumb of Klutch Sports and Lebron. Klutch is also AD's agent, so this is how the Lakers are moving past Klutch.

Now the question will be - what does Lebron do? He is still an amazing player, even at 40. He just can't be top level as much or for as long. But see his play saturday against the Knicks - no other player in year 22, at 40 yrs old, has ever even come close to being at this level like Lebron is. What I think happens, and am hearing will happen, is Lebron uses the rest of this season and whatever they do in the playoffs to see how the Bron/Luka pairing can fair. The Lakers sorely need a bonafide good defensive starting center, and probably won't get that in the 3 days left before deadline. I think how things shake out in the remainder of the season will determine of Bron bolts or not. He won't have a ton of leverage turning 41 next season, but he will have some. He loves LA and LAL but he also moves to his own tune. Will be intersting to watch.

Thank you for telling us what your “insiders” have said but that is all blatantly obvious if you follow the NBA even casually. This all could be summed up with since the NBA doesn’t have a franchise tag organizations trade star players to get some type of return on investment.

 

[Kaladin]

 

[Kaladin]

Lakers need to get Vucevic, though they could use a center like Williams as well

 

[tman87]

Yeah, I agree. I'm not sure if it's true or not. I still think Nico is a bad GM and should've gotten more for Luka.

Worse players than Luka got 3-4 first round picks in addition to some decent players. Also, Luka is losing about $20mm a year going to LA (between losing the supermax and state income tax), I know you said he doesn't care about money, but I think he would care about that much.

Gobert = 4 first rounders
Mikail Bridges= 4 first rounders
Donovan Mitchell = 3 first rounders
De'Aaron Fox = 3 first rounders
Durant (probably the only one better than Luka) = 4 first rounders

I think your nugs are onto something, but I think there's another part of the story they're not telling.

Durant is the only comparable. Mitchell is a stud, but not Durant or Luka level. Gobert and Bridges were awful overpays and both overrated. Fox is good, and the Spurs got him for cheap on their end. Bulls - poorly run org. Kings - even worse run than the Bulls. Kings got a creaky kneed guard who is older back for Fox. Fox had the leverage here, one can see. Not all trades are equal in how they shake out. Situations matter a ton.

Luka will likely make more by the increased endorsement opportunities via being a Laker (the star jewel franchise of the NBA) and being in LA. He's not worried about losing $. If it was about that he would have signed the supermax, which he wasn't going to. Singing the supermax also makes him harder to trade for from the larger cap hit other teams have to take on. He wanted Lakers and knows his earning opportunities are larger there.

I'm going to add to this post, too. Nico is not a good GM. Agreed. Also there is some truth that the Mavs had reservations about Luka's consistent poor conditioning - but not enough to not want to have him sign the supermax. Another part of this is Jason Kidd. While I think he's a pretty good coach - for a while - he rubs people wrong and treats people poorly. He also has done some pretty bad stuff separate from the beating his wife stuff. I think Kidd played at least a small part in the equation, possibly.

 

[tman87]

Lakers need to get Vucevic, though they could use a center like Williams as well

Williams always hurt, contract amount means Lakers have to trade current rotation pieces they'd rather keep. Vucevic is 34, and a poor defender. Putting up 20/10 on a bad team. But he has definitely been a guy the Lakers have looked at, even though he doesn't help much defensively besides being a big body.

Capela - whom I am not very high on - is a possibility. Kessler from Utah would be perfect - great defender/rebounder, young (23) and cost-controlled for several years to come. Utah wants too much for him, that ship has sailed unless something changes on Utah's end. They have no reason to move Kessler as he is still on his rookie K this year and next, then reasonably cost controlled after that. Utah/Ainge demanded Knecht and two firsts, plus removing the protections on the first LA already gave them not that long ago.

 

[tman87]

Thank you for telling us what your “insiders” have said but that is all blatantly obvious if you follow the NBA even casually. This all could be summed up with since the NBA doesn’t have a franchise tag organizations trade star players to get some type of return on investment.

The supermax was supposed to be that, but it doesn't always work out that way.

Glad you got nothing out of the info - I'm good with it either way.

 

[gtlacey]

Durant is the only comparable. Mitchell is a stud, but not Durant or Luka level. Gobert and Bridges were awful overpays and both overrated. Fox is good, and the Spurs got him for cheap on their end. Bulls - poorly run org. Kings - even worse run than the Bulls. Kings got a creaky kneed guard who is older back for Fox. Fox had the leverage here, one can see. Not all trades are equal in how they shake out. Situations matter a ton.

Luka will likely make more by the increased endorsement opportunities via being a Laker (the star jewel franchise of the NBA) and being in LA. He's not worried about losing $. If it was about that he would have signed the supermax, which he wasn't going to. Singing the supermax also makes him harder to trade for from the larger cap hit other teams have to take on. He wanted Lakers and knows his earning opportunities are larger there.

I'm going to add to this post, too. Nico is not a good GM. Agreed. Also there is some truth that the Mavs had reservations about Luka's consistent poor conditioning - but not enough to not want to have him sign the supermax. Another part of this is Jason Kidd. While I think he's a pretty good coach - for a while - he rubs people wrong and treats people poorly. He also has done some pretty bad stuff separate from the beating his wife stuff. I think Kidd played at least a small part in the equation, possibly.

Exactly, so the Mav's should have be sitting on 4 - 8 more first round picks. Not a single 2029 first rounder. That's what's crazy to me about this trade.

 

[tman87]

Exactly, so the Mav's should have be sitting on 4 - 8 more first round picks. Not a single 2029 first rounder. That's what's crazy to me about this trade.

They should have gotten at least the 2031 frp included. They didn't have, or didn't think they had, the leverage for it.

 

[tman87]

I will say on the Fox trade - many teams in the league don't love Fox. They think he is a selfish, gunning, me-first player who is slightly built and a poor defender. So his value wasn't as high because of those league views of him.

One could say that Mitchell somewhat fit the same description. Mitchell is not as light in the pants as Fox, is a better shooter from distance and a better player. So while some similarities, not apples to apples. Plus - Utah and Ainge extract the most possible when they trade. Some other GM's will barely deal with Ainge because making a fair trade with him is so tough.

 

[gtlacey]

They should have gotten at least the 2031 frp included. They didn't have, or didn't think they had, the leverage for it.

I still don't understand why they wouldn't shop Luka to at least a few other teams. He doesn't have a no-trade clause.

 

[tman87]

I still don't understand why they wouldn't shop Luka to at least a few other teams. He doesn't have a no-trade clause.

Luka had a one-team destination in mind. Few other teams want to trade for a guy who doesn't want to be there. Also - they knew the fallout from publically putting on the trade market would have been extremely harsh, plus probably ruined this years Mavs teams from the inside - so whatever chance the Mavs think they have to get back to the finals, would be cratered.

 

[gtlacey]

Luka had a one-team destination in mind. Few other teams want to trade for a guy who doesn't want to be there. Also - they knew the fallout from publically putting on the trade market would have been extremely harsh, plus probably ruined this years Mavs teams from the inside - so whatever chance the Mavs think they have to get back to the finals, would be cratered.

But there are dumb enough teams out there to take a chance on Luka. He's a generational guy. And who cares if the team is ruined this year? They're probably ruined without Luka no matter what!

On top of that, The Athletic is reporting the Lakers couldn't contact Luka's agent. I don't if I buy that, but that would align with him dropping $15mm on a house he's going to put back on the market later this year probably.

Again, your buddy might be right, but there's conflicting stuff coming out right now.

The Athletic:
The Lakers’ logic, according to league sources, was that parting with both of their first-rounders would be too perilous. Dončić’s contract can expire in 2026 when they couldn’t know his interest in re-signing. And they had no chance to find out before pulling off an exchange that shook the NBA.

The Lakers could not talk to Dončić’s agent, Bill Duffy, about the trade because both sides, Dallas and Los Angeles, wanted to keep negotiations a secret. Mentioning the behind-the-scenes details to agents would put the information at risk of becoming public, which the Mavericks especially thought would be too flammable. If a trade didn’t materialize, then they believed the prospect of being left with a disgruntled franchise centerpiece could be disastrous.

Inside the top-secret trade negotiations that made Luka Dončić a Laker

Even mentioning details to the superstars' agents would risk info becoming public, which the Mavs thought was especially flammable.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Kaladin]