He's glossing past a significant reason why the Spread is only 2 to 2.5.
Michigan State's defense is decent vs the run, allowing only 3.6 yards per carry. They are however atrocious vs the pass. Their 7.7 yards allowed per attempt is the worst in the Big Ten and like the 110th worst mark in the country.
They are getting shredded thru the air, something Nebraska may only be able to exploit once or maybe twice per game.
MSU also has a good Kicker. If the Huskers give them the ball inside their own redzone, they will score, unlike Purdue.