From a Rutgers beat writer
Oklahoma and Texas are reportedly looking to bolt the Big 12 and leap to the SEC. If it happens, how should the Big Ten respond?
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What should Big Ten do if SEC adds Oklahoma, Texas?
by James Kratch, NJ.com
INDIANAPOLIS - Kevin Warren's first Big Ten Media Days press conference was already going to be fascinating. Now the second year commissioner has had a wild curveball no one saw coming thrown his way.
A mammoth earthquake hit the college sports landscape Wednesday when the Houston Chronicle reported Oklahoma and Texas have been working to bolt the Big 12 and jump to the SEC.
So when Warren hits the dais at Lucas Oil Stadium on Thursday to kick off the league’s media days, throw the conference expansion brick onto a question load that already included NIL, the prospect of a 12-team College Football Playoff, COVID-19 protocols and vaccines and, of course, the fact many sections of the league outwardly rebelled a year ago as the Big Ten canceled its season and then resumed it amid a pandemic.
It’s hard to imagine Warren will have any definitive answer when asked about the prospect of the Big Ten growing from 14 schools to 16 (or more). How could he? His bosses -- the school chancellors and presidents -- likely have not given much thought to expansion. And while there appears to be plenty of fire, we’ve been down this road with Oklahoma and Texas before. They were as good as gone to the Pac-12 a decade ago, and then they weren’t. And the political issues that killed that deal -- Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech aren’t just going to sit by idly -- will undoubtedly still exist.
But let’s say it all comes to pass and the two powers do make the move to the SEC, throwing the Big 12′s future into doubt and creating the first true superconference. There will be immense pressure on the Big Ten to respond. So what will it do? What should it do?
Maybe nothing?
Here’s why the Big Ten may stand pat, and perhaps should stand pat, if the carousel starts spinning again:
The white whale is still off the board. Notre Dame is tied up in the ACC's media grant of rights through the 2035-36 academic year. And even if the Fighting Irish could wiggle out, an expanded playoff strengthens their resolve to remain a football independent. The Big Ten would crawl through broken glass and walk over lava to add Notre Dame. Everyone knows that. But it's hard to see how the opportunity will ever present itself in the current climate.
The same goes for other ACC targets. The conference boasts five AAU members -- an unofficial Big Ten membership prerequisite -- that could be Big Ten targets: Duke, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Pittsburgh. But all of them are just as tied up as Notre Dame, if not more due to their all-sports affiliation with the ACC. Politics would also be a major issue. The statehouse intervened to get Virginia Tech into the ACC alongside Virginia and North Carolina State and Wake Forest would likely fight to keep Tobacco Road united.
A Pac-12 raid feels unlikely. Arizona and Colorado would be inspired additions. Both are AAU members that would be contiguous to the current geographic footprint and bring booming populations, fertile recruiting grounds and big media markets. But the conference has never gotten its hands as dirty as other leagues when it comes to expansion. The Big Ten has added four members in the modern era, but it has never outright poached a school. Rutgers had legitimate reasons to go out and seek the invite, as did Maryland, Nebraska and Penn State. Unless the Pac-12 begins to implode -- which certainly could happen -- it's hard to imagine the Big Ten would brazenly move on its members. And even then, a push to the far West could still be too bold for the league's leaders.
Would the Big Ten want the Big 12 leftovers? Cockeye State and Kansas are AAU members and fit the Big Ten's footprint. The Cyclones would fit into the league just fine, but they would not move the needle much from a big-picture standpoint. It would feel like an act of charity more than a strategic pickup. The Jayhawks would be the splashier addition, but does the Big Ten want to get into bed with an athletics department that seems to have a new scandal every other week? Something tells us a league as holier-than-thou as this one does not want Bill Self's lifetime contract on its books.
The SEC caveat. Missouri and Vanderbilt are SEC wallflowers. And they'd become even more irrelevant if Oklahoma and Texas join. But they would fit the footprint and if you put them in the Big Ten, they would be viable programs in all sports from the start. You could even throw Kentucky into this group as well. The idea of a school leaving the SEC seems crazy, but would anyone miss them and/or stand in their way if the Big Ten is determined to expand?
The bottom line. If the SEC does add Oklahoma and Texas, it feels like it would be the perfect surgical strike: That league gets worlds richer and stronger while the Big Ten and everyone else have little to no recourse to respond, and the right move becomes no move.