The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite surged more than 10% last month after a down year in 2022, with history showing the stock-market index tends to perform well in the next 12 months after such a scenario — except in 2001, Bespoke Investment Group warned.
“After closing out an already bad year on a down note, the Nasdaq stormed into 2023 [by] rallying 10.7% in January,” Bespoke said in a report emailed Wednesday. “Since the Nasdaq’s inception in 1971, there have been 33 prior months where it rallied at least 10%.”
But the number of occurrences drops to just 16 when narrowed to rallies of that magnitude following a 12-month stretch in which the index was down, according to Bespoke. In such cases, the firm found, the Nasdaq’s performance then tends to be positive over the next year, except in 2001, “when there were four different [monthly gains of 10% or more] and the Nasdaq was lower one year later after all four of them.”