Is 8-4 success? What about 7-5?

[Ext. 55]

I’m really excited about a bunch of these kids. When I see a true freshman playing meaningful snaps in the B1G and holding his own….man. Most of them have looked pretty decent doing it as well.

Absolutely. We have some real talent coming up. Find those hog mollies up front and we are trending. Guys like Pietrzak and Merrit have some serious upside as true freshmen.

 

[BorWhiskey]

It's your claim, not mine. We didn't win every game we were supposed to.

You literally wrote off Minnesota as a game we weren't supposed to win when we were favored by 6.5 at kickoff, so that you could claim we won every game we were supposed to win. Completely absurd.

In reality, we've lost two games we were supposed to win based on the spread at kickoff, and won zero that we weren't supposed to win.

Do you think where a line closes is more relevant than where it opens when determining who was supposed to win? In other words, is what the market thinks about teams more relevant than what the book thinks?

I’m not going to excuse Minnesota. That game was the only game I was pissed off about. I felt let down coming out of that game. Losing to USC and Michigan, I saw a team that played tough but had deficiencies that cost us wins. Minnesota was not that.

 

[djw004]

I’ve seen some comments that a win on Friday and this season is a success.

How do we feel about that? How do we feel about a 7-5 which, frankly, is the most likely outcome?

To end 8-4, we will have had one devastatingly terrible loss to Minnesota and one surprise win vs Cockeye.

I guess you can argue that is a success in that it is not an obvious failure. But 5-4 in conference in a year that you don’t play any of the top 3 seems like the absolute minimum you should be hoping for.

On other hand, 7-5 is an abject failure. 5-5 vs power conference teams and 4-5 in conference where you avoided the powerhouses entirely is a completely wasted opportunity and is really not an improvement from a 6-6 when you played OSU and Indiana.

I was very pro-Rhule before Minnesota, but this season feels like a giant red flag.

We are probably going to have to accept that the goal every year is 6 wins and a bowl, and hope that every now and then we can put it all together and get 9 wins and make a run at a 28-team playoff.*

*BTW no program needs an expanded playoff more than Nebraska. We should be pimping it at every opportunity.

I wouldn't call 8-4 some resounding success - but stacking it next to prior years it's at least a tangible and meaningful improvement

7-5 in my opinion is essentially no difference from last year. I will be very disappointed to go 7-5.

 

[Flabio]

IMO it’s impossible to provide a complete evaluation given the DR injury. Yes, injuries happen at all levels of CFB every year, but losing your best/most valuable player is an asterisk. Even more so when you’re plugging in a true freshman QB.

This. I am still frustrated with the MN loss. TJ is still two years away from being able to have the passing mechanics and understanding to run the O. He also needs significant S&C as he’s tiny so you have to be careful with running him. A good but not dynamic runner and a true freshman who hasn’t had starter reps in development.

We should be able to stop the run much better. The front seven is way to far below average atm.

 

[wildcat_husker]

I’m not going to excuse Minnesota. That game was the only game I was pissed off about. I felt let down coming out of that game. Losing to USC and Michigan, I saw a team that played tough but had deficiencies that cost us wins. Minnesota was not that.

This is kind of how I feel. Minnesota was a horrible loss and a bad look for our coaches and team. This is the one I wish we could get back the most.

Michigan - I was disappointed but felt like we didn't quite have the horses after watching them.

USC - Was really bummed out because I felt like we had them until Raiola got hurt.

Penn State - Was the most talented team we played this year -- just watching them, it was obvious. The game was always going to go the way they dictated it. If they showed up ready, we weren’t beating them. With that level of talent, their results depend more on their own execution than on their opponent. You saw it when they sleepwalked against teams like UCLA and Northwestern.

With all that being said, Rhule needs to get more talent on the roster and that's his responsibility. The line play is inexcusable in year 3.

 

[Blakejc]

I think a lot of fans are pissed because Rhule’s typical year three trajectory didn’t play out at Nebraska this year.

I know the schedule was set up for at least one more regular season win, but it’s still not a complete failure.

There’s still a ton on the table. Beat Cockeye and win the bowl game and 9-4 looks pretty decent.

The thing about Rhule in year 3 is it’s not a trend. He’s done well twice in year 3, that’s just a coincidence. We bought into it because it gave us hope, but we acted like it was some forgone conclusion because he had done it at the G5 level and in a weak Big12. B10 in 2025 is a different beast and we should’ve tempered our expectations accordingly.

That being said, we left a couple games out there. Minnesota we were completely unprepared and got punched in the mouth. USC would’ve been a win if not for a dirty play that gave our qb a season ending injury. Michigan and Penn St. were just better than us. I won’t argue with folks who say we should be 9-2 going into Cockeye, but I also know we could be 5-6 going into Cockeye if not for a couple big special teams plays.

 

[Quint]

Absolutely. We have some real talent coming up. Find those hog mollies up front and we are trending. Guys like Pietrzak and Merrit have some serious upside as true freshmen.

Pietrzak was overmatched against PSU (as was our entire DL), but he’s flashed some great natural ability. It’s going to be cool to see what reps, time in S&C, the training table and in coaching sessions will pull out of him. He’s got the ‘It’ you’re not teaching.

 

[RedDeanRedemption]

IMO it’s impossible to provide a complete evaluation given the DR injury. Yes, injuries happen at all levels of CFB every year, but losing your best/most valuable player is an asterisk. Even more so when you’re plugging in a true freshman QB.

EJ is a million times more valuable than DR. Honestly JEJ and a few others might be more valuable when you consider the replacements.

 

[Ext. 55]

Pietrzak was overmatched against PSU (as was our entire DL), but he’s flashed some great natural ability. It’s going to be cool to see what reps, time in S&C, the training table and in coaching sessions will pull out of him. He’s got the ‘It’ you’re not teaching.

For sure...and true freshman, which I know you get. But like you said, he has 'it'...

 

[Quint]

The thing about Rhule in year 3 is it’s not a trend. He’s done well twice in year 3, that’s just a coincidence. We bought into it because it gave us hope, but we acted like it was some forgone conclusion because he had done it at the G5 level and in a weak Big12. B10 in 2025 is a different beast and we should’ve tempered our expectations accordingly.

That being said, we left a couple games out there. Minnesota we were completely unprepared and got punched in the mouth. USC would’ve been a win if not for a dirty play that gave our qb a season ending injury. Michigan and Penn St. were just better than us. I won’t argue with folks who say we should be 9-2 going into Cockeye, but I also know we could be 5-6 going into Cockeye if not for a couple big special teams plays.

Agree on all fronts.

I think the hardest part for folks to deal with is that for a combination of reasons, guys timing out being chief among them, we are a better overall roster and team, without a real significant improvement in W/L record.

 

[SlumpBuster]

EJ is a million times more valuable than DR. Honestly JEJ and a few others might be more valuable when you consider the replacements.

Tell me you hate Dylan for no reason without telling me you hate Dylan for no reason.

 

[Quint]

For sure...and true freshman, which I know you get. But like you said, he has 'it'...

It’s crazy to me as well.

I’m less surprised when a 6-2 205lb receiver or corner can play and hold his own then I am a 18 or 19 year old kid at 265-270 making plays against upper classmen on the line in the B1G.

Quick hands and feet and a knack for getting around folks. Also even at his age has a bit of a bull rush brewing.

Dude is going to be a problem for folks.

 

[Blakejc]

We won every game we were supposed to win (as long as you don't count that game we were supposed to win big but instead got btfo'd)

Or Michigan, where we were 1 point favorites and got beat handily

And of course we had zero upsets lol

Actually I’ve gone back and looked. We did have an upset: UCLA. they were -2.5 at kick.

And ESPN Bet had Michigan -1.5 at kick.

 

[Sous Chef]

Do you think where a line closes is more relevant than where it opens when determining who was supposed to win? In other words, is what the market thinks about teams more relevant than what the book thinks?

I’m not going to excuse Minnesota. That game was the only game I was pissed off about. I felt let down coming out of that game. Losing to USC and Michigan, I saw a team that played tough but had deficiencies that cost us wins. Minnesota was not that.

I can't say I'm pissed off about the Penn State game but it was certainly depressing.

 

[SlumpBuster]

The thing about Rhule in year 3 is it’s not a trend. He’s done well twice in year 3, that’s just a coincidence.

How is it just a coincidence? That does not make sense. He had literally been a head coach in college twice, both times and year three he was very successful. The very definition of a trend

Now that being said, I believe with all my heart that coaches succeeding is just playing percentages. A really good coach will have a higher percent chance of winning when he takes a job, but it is far from guaranteed.

There is example after example after example of a coach doing really well at one job and then failing at the next.

Bill belichick, Mack brown, Scott frost, etc etc.

Saban wasn't great until he went to a place that gave him the right tools and even then, towards the end you could see some of the cracks since he didn't seem to want to adapt.

I'm a pretty firm believer that you give a coach who has succeeded the resources he needs and hope it works out, but nothing is guaranteed.

In fact I would argue that almost no matter what coach you hire, your odds are being successful are less than 50%. It might actually be like 10%.

As for matt, it's easy to see a few things. Maybe this was a bigger project than some people thought? Maybe the landscape has changed and he needs to adjust and the way he succeeded in the past no longer works? Obviously the Big Ten is a pretty difficult place to win compared to his previous stops?

I think we all know he's pretty much got two years to see if he can figure it out. We will see if he can, probably won't.

 

[Blakejc]

How is it just a coincidence? That does not make sense. He had literally been a head coach in college twice, both times and year three he was very successful. The very definition of a trend

two data points is not at all the definition of a trend. Not in statistics, not in science, not in coaching, not anywhere.

 

[BorWhiskey]

I can't say I'm pissed off about the Penn State game but it was certainly depressing.

Yeah, I had hope that we’d play better so I was definitely sad about the outcome. But this probable outcome was always a fear.

 

[SlumpBuster]

two data points is not at all the definition of a trend. Not in statistics, not in science, not in coaching, not anywhere.

It's actually 6 data points though.

 

[Blakejc]

It's actually 6 data points though.

He’s had six year 3s, eh?

 

[SlumpBuster]

He’s had six year 3s, eh?

Year 1, 2, 3, 4 (1 again), 5, 6