What's wrong with Nebraska, and is Scott Frost the one to fix it?
After a dispiriting loss to Illinois in the season opener, it's hard to see much progress for Scott Frost at the start of Year 4. Can the program's former star quarterback change things before it's too late?
What's wrong with Nebraska football, and is Scott Frost the one to fix it?
by Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
Nebraska coach Scott Frost and his players aren't in denial. They saw what you saw in Saturday's season-opening loss to Illinois, and they aren't hiding from the hard truths.
Cornhuskers mistakes that have marked and marred Frost's first three seasons showed up in the first game of Year 4. A Nebraska team with decent talent and loads of experience fell behind 30-9 and lost 30-22 to an Illini team playing its first game under a new coaching staff.
"What is the same old story is the turnover, the penalties, little mistakes that, in Big Ten football, you just can't make," quarterback Adrian Martinez said.
Playing on a mostly empty national stage in Week 0, Nebraska's errors already have turned into teach tape for coaches in their final preseason preparations. Several coaches who have watched the Huskers and know their history under Frost were surprised but not shocked to see what happened.
"It just blows my mind," a Power 5 coach said. "They've got a lot of talent. They just do some of the most boneheaded things."
The prevailing question surrounding Nebraska is: Can a team change its DNA? The mistakes that shape outcomes, especially in the Big Ten, seem to be baked in for the Huskers. Frost knows it, and told his team after Saturday's game, "We can't have this season be the same movie, because this game looked like the same movie."
Can Nebraska change the script with plenty of season left? Or will it soon be time to change the director? Frost is now 12-21. Leadership instability has directly contributed to Nebraska's rocky first decade in the Big Ten, but confidence in the former Huskers quarterback is waning. Nebraska's home sellout streak, which dates back to 1962, is in jeopardy entering this week's game against FCS foe Fordham.
After covering Saturday's game in Champaign, I spoke with coaches and others about the Huskers and whether a turnaround under Frost is still possible this fall.
At Big Ten media days in July, Frost spoke about how Nebraska planned to address the repeated mistakes in its play. Frost mentioned experience, which the Huskers now have in droves, as well as greater discipline and "attentiveness to it as a coaching staff." He later noted that in the Big Ten, a well-coached league where offensive tempo is generally slower, "here cant be any wasted plays and mistakes."
Frost also noted how Nebraska's pattern of soul-crushing errors stretches back to his first game as coach. After weather canceled the 2018 opener against Akron, Nebraska faced longtime Big Eight/Big 12 rival Colorado. The Huskers fumbled on their first two possessions, but they still led in the fourth quarter and had Colorado in a 3rd-and-24.
"We late-hit a receiver and gave 'em the first down and lost the game," Frost told ESPN.
That the play sticks with Frost, nearly four years later, as an omen of sorts for his Huskers teams, and underscores the awareness placed on changing the troubling patterns. Frost said Saturday that some of the issues against Illinois -- Martinez's fumble before halftime, a critical offensive pass interference penalty, a bad snap -- didn't show up during preseason camp.
Nebraska's problems likely don't come from a lack of focus. How could the Huskers not spend extra time cleaning up their play after the past three seasons? But habits are hard to break, and something is still not translating to the games.
"That has to be just mind-boggling, just frustrating for no end for Scott, because he's a good coach," a Big Ten coach said. "They've got a bunch of good coaches on their staff, and yeah, for some reason, they've been losing games like that for three or four years now. It's got to be driving them crazy."
I asked Huskers senior defensive lineman Ben Stille if the team's mistakes are habitual, or part of a pattern that can be assessed and eventually broken. Nebraska's blunders against Illinois seemed to span from the mental (Cam Taylor-Britt catching a punt at Nebraska's 1-yard line) to the physical (Martinez overthrowing Wyatt Liewer in the end zone and keeping only one hand on the ball before the fumble) to the emotional (linebacker Caleb Tannor being flagged for taunting after a roughing-the-passer penalty nullified an interception).
"I don't know that you can pin it down to a specific pattern that we keep messing up," Stille said. "I guess the pattern there is that they're all just stupid, self-inflicted issues, and we've got to clean it up."
Several coaches within and outside the Big Ten who watched Nebraska had the same thought after the game: "They can't get out of their own way."
That line certainly applied to the punt return from Taylor-Britt late in the first quarter. He caught a booming punt bound for the end zone, stumbled into the end zone and then flung the ball out of bounds as Illinois Kerby Joseph converged.
"It's crazy," a Power 5 coach said. "Have you ever seen a kid throw the ball out of the end zone like that? And to catch [the punt] there?"
Special teams errors have been a theme for Nebraska under Frost and continued Saturday. Daniel Cerni had punts of 19 and 26 yards. Reliable specialists such as Connor Culp, the Big Ten's kicker of the year in 2020, couldn't deliver, missing two extra point attempts after going 20-for-20 on tries last fall. From 2018 to 2020, Nebraska ranked 116th nationally in special teams efficiency.
Not every Nebraska mistake against Illinois will occur weekly, but the program has enough reference points over the years to be concerned. Coaches often reference the 6-8 plays per game that shape outcomes; Nebraska consistently is on the wrong end of those.
"This is the first game of the year," Martinez said. "Yes, it was a tough loss, and it was a bit of the same old story for this program and we need to get that fixed. But it will not deter us. It will not discourage us."
Nebraska has a tough road ahead with two games against Top 4 opponents (No. 2 Oklahoma, No. 4 Ohio State), two others against Top 20 foes (No. 12 Wisconsin, No. 18 Cockeye) and few sure-fire wins. ESPN's Football Power Index favors Nebraska in only three games, against Fordham and Buffalo, and an Oct. 30 home contest against Purdue.
Immediate improvements are essential before Nebraska visits Oklahoma on Sept. 18. So how do the Huskers break these habits?
Big Ten Network analyst Gerry DiNardo believes teams can change their DNA. The key for Nebraska is for coaches to identify the problems (which they have), stress them with the players (but not too much) and also emphasize the improvement they see, which Frost tried to do after Saturday's game.
"You have to convince the players that it is changing," DiNardo, the former coach at Indiana, LSU and Vanderbilt. "It can't be a self-fulfilling prophecy. I do think it can change and I could make a case that it has gotten better."
Removing Nebraska's special teams issues, most teams would accept one turnover and five penalties in a conference road game. The Huskers' problem is that their only turnover led directly to points, right before halftime, and two of their penalties came while up a touchdown and with Illinois using a backup quarterback.
In Frost's first three seasons, Nebraska tied for 93rd nationally with 6.47 penalties per game, and tied for 112th nationally in turnovers with 61. The Huskers tied for 109th in turnover margin at minus-13, but on Saturday broke even against Illinois (1-1).
Frost's teams at UCF struggled to avoid flags, too. In 2016 and 2017, the Knights drew 200 total penalties, which ranked 124th nationally. They ranked near the bottom of the FBS both in average penalties per game (7.69, 123rd) and average penalty yards per game (62.2, 107th).
UCF combatted its penalty issues in several ways. The Knights were exceptional at generating takeaways, collecting 58 in those two seasons to rank No. 3 nationally. The takeaways helped UCF offset a not-so-great giveaways total (40, tied for 74th nationally). Nebraska hasn't been as successful in takeaways under Frost, finishing tied for 70th from 2018 to 2020.
UCF also had an exceptional offense, which led the nation in scoring in 2017 (48.2 ppg). The Knights ranked No. 23 in special teams efficiency from 2016 to 2017.
"Penalties, discipline, it really wasn't that big of an issue because you're winning," longtime UCF broadcaster Mac Daniels said Monday. "Nobody's bothered if you have double-digit penalties once in a while, if you still put up 50 points and 600 yards. They had some issues, but it didn't matter. It was, 'I'll live with a late hit or a personal foul because I'm going to get a turnover and a score, and it's a two-score swing on you.'"
"It wasn't out of control."
The biggest difference with Frost's UCF teams and his Nebraska ones has been quarterback play. UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton developed into one of the nation's best players under Frost. In 2017, he set team records for passing yards (4,037), passing touchdowns (37) and quarterback rushing (613 yards). Milton had seven 300-yard passing performances, seven games with three or more touchdown passes, and only two games with multiple interceptions.
"What Scott always wanted and that McKenzie had was that they saw the play before the snap," Daniels said. "Regardless of what you put out there, he felt confident that McKenzie was going to see everything, and as he looked at the defensive setup, he knew what Option A, B and C was. Then, when the play happened, if you had to adapt, McKenzie knew what to do. People got so caught up in the [offense's] tempo, and it was designed to wear you down, but it was more like, 'I know exactly what I want to do and you're guessing, and I have so many weapons that you're not going to guess right all the time.'"
Nebraska hoped for similar progress from Martinez, a dynamic dual-threat from Fresno, California. Martinez had a strong freshman year, passing for 2,617 yards with 17 touchdowns and eight interceptions and completing nearly 65% of his attempts. But he struggled with injuries in 2019 and then briefly lost the starting job during a COVID-19 shortened 2020 season.
Accuracy has been an issue for Martinez, who saw his completion percentage drop in 2019. But he eclipsed 75% in five of seven games last season. He completed just half of his attempts against Illinois and took five sacks, continuing a theme from the past two seasons (34 sacks). Frost on Monday praised Martinez for making several tough throws under pressure, but added, "He missed two [throws], and when we get layups, we can't miss 'em."
Ball protection is another area of concern with Martinez. His lost fumble against Illinois marked the 16th of his career.
"The quarterback play has just been tough," a Power 5 coach said. "He's just not consistent, he doesn't protect the football, and that's just a hard thing.....You just feel for him. He panics."
Martinez has been a consistently productive runner, eclipsing 500 yards in each of his first three seasons. He led Nebraska with 111 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown, at Illinois. Nebraska lacks depth behind Martinez following Luke McCaffrey's transfer, but its best option might be to turn Martinez loose.
"I wouldn't hesitate to run him," DiNardo said. "I just think they're in that situation now. [Former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer] used to say no one was allowed to call the quarterback run unless he said OK, or if they were in short-yardage or goal-line. Maybe that's what Scott is doing with [Martinez], but I think it's time to not worry about that, really."
Frost will get every opportunity to get things right in Lincoln, and still has plenty of time to make the 2021 season a success. He's signed through 2026 and will be paid $5 million annually.
Athletic director Turd Alberts, a former Huskers star like Frost, is only two months into the job. Although the NCAA is investigating Nebraska for potential violations during the 2020 season, there's a sense around the program that the probe won't be overly damaging on its own and could only be used to oust Frost if the team keeps losing.
The bigger question is whether Frost can reshape the traits of a roster he recruited and developed.
"A Herculean task to change them," a Power 5 assistant texted.
"With the same coaches, sometimes it's tough to change," added a Power 5 head coach.
Frost famously brought his entire staff with him from UCF to Nebraska, a nice gesture of loyalty, but one that, in hindsight, might have been problematic. Saturday's loss raised questions about Nebraska's coaching adjustment to the Big Ten.
On the opposite sideline stood Bret Bielema, who returned to a league that he won three times at Wisconsin. Several Illinois assistants worked under Bielema or, in the case of defensive backs coach Aaron Henry, played for him at Wisconsin. Offensive coordinator Tony Petersen has logged seven seasons as Minnesota's OC. Bielema knows what it takes to win in the Big Ten, especially the West Division, where talent is fairly comparable but the teams that develop players, defend and don't beat themselves win. Since 2018, four Big Ten teams rank among the top nine in fewest penalties per game. Six rank in the top 20 in defensive efficiency.
Frost and his players say the right things about what's necessary to win in the Big Ten, but Nebraska isn't following through. Unlike UCF, which almost always had a talent edge over its opponents -- Frost inherited a team that went winless in 2016, but the Knights were 31-9 with a top-10 finish in the previous three years -- Nebraska's roster isn't superior to its opponents'.
"[Nebraska] should be playing the style Illinois played with some quarterback run," a Power 5 coach said after watching the game.
Frost's comment Monday about the offensive game plan upon seeing Illinois' defensive alignment -- "About half of our game plan was kind of out the window when they lined up the way they did" -- doesn't help perception.
Perhaps the key adjustments still will come. Big Ten coaches like some elements of Nebraska's team, particularly a veteran defensive front seven featuring Stille and linebackers Luke Reimer, Garrett Nelson, and Nick Henrich. Defensive end Pheldarius Payne, a junior-college transfer in his second season at Nebraska, recorded two sacks at Illinois.
Martinez has his faults but still brings superb leadership skills. He also doesn't shy away from accountability.
Frost and Martinez on Monday asked Nebraska fans to keep the faith, and continue the sellout streak, a link to the program's glorious past.
"I hope nobody lost excitement after Saturday," Frost said. "I think this team is going to prove a lot to a lot of people. ... We cannot wait to play in front of the fans, so we need you there."
The Huskers will need to put on a different show, and show that they can become a different cast.
