TPB X thread (17 Viewers)

[Red Finger]

 

[1HuskerDad]

 

[Mavsker]

You can check my math/assumptions.

Buy a house with a loan of 100k 12/1/93.

I do a 30 year loan at 3.5%. My payment is $449.

You do a 15 year loan at 3%. Your payment is $691.

So I'm investing $242 per month for 30 years. You're investing nothing for 15 years and then $691 per month for 15 years.

Your example was 12/1/00-12/1/15. S&P 500 return was 2.3%. Obviously 2030 isn't here yet so instead going backward from 12/1/23. 12/1/93-12/1/08 return was 3%. 12/1/08-12/1/23 13%.

So again I invest $242 every month for 30 years. Average return is 3% for the first 15 and 13% for the next 15. At 12/1/23 my house is paid off and I have 517k in investments.

You pay on your house for the first 15 years and start investing $691 per month. At 30 years you have 384k.

Yes at the 15 year mark you have your house paid off. I have a balance on my loan of 63k and investments of 55k so I am temporarily behind you. But I have 55k already invested when the market turns.

Over a 30 year loan I am going to win. I risk having periods of time in the middle that I'm slightly behind but it's not far. Not when rates are that low. I will leverage every bit of the house at 3.5% assuming I'm not retirement age. I don't care about having debt during retirement but I'm not taking additional debt at that point even if it does make sense.

Granted I'm doing something more fun than invest it in the market. Trying to flip houses and eventually vacation homes but this is all for arguments sake.

2.3% return for the first 15 changes the 15 year mark by a couple thousand and 30 year mark by about 10k. Still well over your measly 384k. I'm sure there's a 30 year example that's closer but I can't see losing.

Yeah if you bump it back to 1993 you win. My point is, starting at 2000, you can't win. You've already lost.

 

[1HuskerDad]

 

[MtnHusker]

 

[MtnHusker]

 

[MtnHusker]

 

[MtnHusker]

 

[MtnHusker]

 

[MtnHusker]

 

[MtnHusker]

 

[Mavsker]

I can’t wait for college football.

Imagine waking up

Cup of coffee

Full slate of college football ahead of you

Your team has a manageable noon opponent. Nothing crazy but you get to watch your boys.

You get a simultaneous big noon big 10
showdown to follow. Good game down to the wire. You watch the last 20 minutes of the game after yours ends.

You get a beautiful 2:30 game to watch on your main screen. It’s OU vs a new prime time SEC opponent. It’s a big time Utah vs Kstate big 12 showdown. It’s a good game and you watch the whole damn thing.

The prime time night games come on. You’re beer-ed up, caffeinated, and ready for a big time game in Happy Valley or Death Valley. YES.

And finally, you’re ready for one last taste. You got Michigan State at USC kicking off at 10:30 local time. Why? Don’t ask me. Doesn’t make much sense! But that’s college football. Goodbye “pac 12 after dark” hello “wtf is this game and why am I awake”. It’s beautiful.

It was a perfect day.

We are getting so close. 🥰

Wake up at 10:15, sweaty and hungover. Shave, shower, shit, in that order. Yell at my wife for not having breakfast ready. Start the coffee. Folgers black. Shit again.
Morning cig. Hint of a crisp breeze in the air blowing through my stained wifebeater. Three Bud Heavies. Realize I don't have enough of them to get me through the Rutgers @ Northwestern 11:00 banger. But then again this game could decide who clinches 12th place in the conference so I definitely don't want to miss it.
5 minutes to kickoff. Anticipation is through the roof. Run out of beer. Kids screaming. Neighbor starts mowing. Wife gets back from Starbucks with a pumpkin spice latte and decides she wants to go to the pumpkin patch.

 

[MtnHusker]

 

[1HuskerDad]

 

[1HuskerDad]

 

[MtnHusker]

 

[MtnHusker]

 

[MtnHusker]

 

[MtnHusker]

 

[MtnHusker]