Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[KidsSeeGhosts]

Starlink, Obvious Lee. That operation just prints money and they have the potential to be seriously disruptive to today's cellular carriers. I mean BIGLY disruptive.

If the mad lad actually lists under ticker SEX, buy buy buy

I think in general A&D exposure makes sense as complementary trades and that industry is as exciting as anything right now.

 

[LoudHogRider]

If the mad lad actually lists under ticker SEX, buy buy buy

I think in general A&D exposure makes sense as complementary trades and that industry is as exciting as anything right now.

It seems to me that owning both would be a good play here. Let the market decide the winner, and the market is a big one!

 

[KidsSeeGhosts]

It seems to me that owning both would be a good play here. Let the market decide the winner, and the market is a big one!

Yeah, to be clear I am referring to the aerospace (plus defense) sector, which IMO is the most interesting thing in the market. Lot of different plays there.

Starlink has direct market exposure and also becomes a potential key supplier in connectivity in those companies’ future. Could see it being AWS similar as the money printer to fuel future operations.

 

[SoCal_Corn]

Starlink, Obvious Lee. That operation just prints money and they have the potential to be seriously disruptive to today's cellular carriers. I mean BIGLY disruptive.

Except by the time WE can buy a stock called "Starlink" the sharps, institutions and Nancy fuckin Pelosi will own it all at the cheap price....waiting for the 500x multiple.


Would he reverse takeover an existing Public Co, change the name, issue "Starlink" stock and make a gazillion $

Like ASTS perhaps?

 

[SoCal_Corn]

$ASTS superior to starlink. Already publicly traded.

It's gone UP 11% since yore post. 🤔


EDIT:

Now 15.6%

 

[KidsSeeGhosts]

Except by the time WE can buy a stock called "Starlink" the sharps, institutions and Nancy fuckin Pelosi will own it all at the cheap price....waiting for the 500x multiple.


Would he reverse takeover an existing Public Co, change the name, issue "Starlink" stock and make a gazillion $

Like ASTS perhaps?

There’s more liquidity in the private shares space than there’s ever been. Platforms like Hiive let you access secondary sales FWIW.

No real reason to do the latter IMO

 

[HughJanus]

It's gone UP 11% since yore post. 🤔


EDIT:

Now 15.6%

Here's some great technical information on why Elon's a dipshit shooting garbage into space.

 

[God is a Husker]

"Just buy Gold, Guns and stock in Defense Corporations." -- my boomer Dad who thinks he is a fucking genius right now

FUCK YOU BOOMERS FUCK YOU

 

[HughJanus]

Long post:
I've probably made an enormous mistake getting into a bio-tech company.

Sellas Life Sciences $SLS. They have two drugs aimed at treating Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

As you know bio-tech bleeds money, dilutes, and fucks holders with warrants for years until they have a successful drug or go under. Luckily they are at the end of the road. They are currently in a phase 3 trial (step before FDA approval) that should have ended by now if you look at best available data. Drug is called GPS, an immunotherapy.

This trial is for patients in second remission. These patients have poor survival outcomes 6-8 months with best available therapy (BAT). BAT is toxic and provides poor quality of life. These patients are either waiting for a bone marrow transplant (best hope for prolonged survival), are ineligible for one, or have already failed one. It is a dire prognosis.

The therapy works by targeting the WT1 protein which is present naturally in the womb, but naturally disappears after birth. It is also coincidentally present in certain cancers, AML being one. It teaches the immune system to attack signs of WT1. Because WT1 protein is only found in the cancer cells, the body only attacks the bad stuff and has very few side effects or toxicity.

In their successful smaller phase 2 trial patients treated with GPS had a median survival of 21 months vs 5.4 months for patients on BAT. Patients had very few side effects.

For the phase 3 trial 126 patients have been enrolled. Half on BAT, half on GPS. Last patient in was April 2024. 100 patients had been enrolled by Nov 2023. Simply put trial success is defined by comparing median survival of BAT vs GPS. A ratio better than 8.4 months/12.6 months will be a success. As we know phase 2 data was 5.4mo/21mo. Trial will be stopped after 80 events (deaths).

An interim analysis was provided at 60 events last December. This told us that the data was analyzed and not halted for futility, the BAT mOS is not more than 13 months, and that over a year later and the final 20 events have yet to occur.

Now taking all of the variables we know, Enrollment timeline, trial design, date of 60th event, expected BAT mOS survival curve, current date without 80th event, we can ask our favorite AI (GPT or Gemini) to run some math on what GPS mOS should be to match these variables. Being smart we would ask it to calculate first with a conservative estimate based on real world survival of these patients 8 months, we would also ask it to calculate if the improbable upper limit with BAT mOS at 13 months. The AI would say that the only way for the trial to still be ongoing with BAT=8mo. is if GPS=30+ months. And worst case scenario BAT=13mo. Is if GPS=24 months. Our goal is 8ish/12ish = .636 anything less is a success. 8/30 = .266 a statistical breakthrough. And at the very worst case scenario 13/24 = .542 still a smash success doubling the previous survival time of patients. It appears that it is statistically impossible for the trial to fail. It can still technically fail for a number of weird technicalities even if the drug actually does work which would send the price crashing.

Now if you know biotech you know the big winners are huge $abvx up 1,500% YTD. $sprb $8 to $240 in two trading days. Successful trials and FDA rulings are massive de-risking catalysts and leat to enormous buyouts. That is what we're expecting. As soon as successful phase three data drops (the CEO has stated multiple times it will be done by end of year) the stock should go through a massive rerating and jump up in price. The company will be an ideal buyout target for big pharma companies with a conservative buyout target of $20/share. Sitting at $2.30 today. Again this data could drop any day now or even extend to April at the latest, but then it would be even more clear that the trial is a massive success.

Other things to know: Black Rock bought 5% of the company in October. The company has been financing itself by issuing warrants and diluting shareholders. Warrant holders have been exercising their $1.25ish strike warrants, selling the shares for $1.40-$2.00 and pocketing the difference. It appears they've been selling these shares to their buddies and institutions because institutional holdings have been increasing while the warrant exercising suppresses the stock price, allowing the big players to accumulate cheap. Technicals appear to indicate this is ending. Price is moving above the newly issued $2.00 warrants so they can keep up the game. There have also been large option buys the past few days for Jan 26, Feb 26, and Jan 27. The CEO recently skipped an event with the CEO of Pfizer a potential BO partner, meaning he's either the worst bio-tech CEO ever or maybe he is already in serious discussions with another company.

Anyway I've thrown enough into this to retire by golf season if things go well, but could also lose it in an instant. Should be fun either way! Join me if you're brave, stupid, and/or irresponsible.

Stock has more than doubled in 9 trading days. I'm trying to help you.

 

[LoudHogRider]

$ASTS superior to starlink. Already publicly traded.

I need to stop back ITT to publicly thank you for this call. I’m up BIGLY on the $$$ I threw at this based on your guidance. Gracias!

 

[That SOB Van Owen]

What else you got @HughJanus ? Those two still have room to run?

 

[JerryBones5]

Stock has more than doubled in 9 trading days. I'm trying to help you.

N

 

[HughJanus]

What else you got @HughJanus ? Those two still have room to run?

Yeah I plan to hold ASTS until their constellation is fully built out and generating revenue. For SLS the situation has changed a bit they provided an update before new year that the trial is progressing even slower than expected. Which is a good thing for likelyhood of success. Meanwhile the options chain for Jan 16th was loaded with open call interest bc people expected a trial announcement by then. When they announced the trial was still ongoing it caused a slow climb in the stock price which setup a gamma squeeze bc market makers had to hedge the massive open interest as it got in the money. I'm still long but will now likely need to wait at least until summer for results.

Edit: also price will be volatile for a while. Gamma squeeze could still be ongoing.

 

[JerryBones5]

D-Wave Quantum agrees to acquire Quantum Circuits for $550 million to boost gate-model development

D-Wave’s crashing the gate....

sherwood.news

QBTS