Serious question: how is CU only favored -2.5?

[Turn Down for What]

The. Prime. Effect.

 

[CornFed Gregger]

Maybe Vegas isn’t buying the goods just yet. Big 12 didn’t have a good weekend & TCU doesn’t look like a team that’ll repeat last year. If u want a perfect example of how trash TCU’s defense was just look at the TD where they tossed left out of shotgun & every DB looked completely unaware it was a run play & he walked right by em. It was a classic Big 12 defense & reminded me of Chinander’s Oklahoma performance

 

[Tonkasker]

Guys aren’t going to trash their algorithms to buy the tail end of a 10pt line adjustment. My read is that the line’s getting shoved back in the public’s face because of perceived value, not because whales are coming in on Nebraska.

I haven’t seen any reporting on big bets come in, but my assumption is that whales bought Colorado as a dog early in the game or at half when it was still on the board at +6 to try and middle or hedge their algos

Disclaimer - I’m also a dumb gambler who bought a Martinez heisman ticket

 

[HerbRedman]

Guys aren’t going to trash their algorithms to buy the tail end of a 10pt line adjustment. My read is that the line’s getting shoved back in the public’s face because of perceived value, not because whales are coming in on Nebraska.

There are no whales coming in on Nebraska though, that's the point. All the public money is coming in on Colorado.

The sportsbooks just got crushed on CU +800 ML last week. So they're in a unique spot this week. They could go CU all the way up to -10 and STILL get a ton of action on both sides, but then they run the same risk of exposure this week, just on the opposite side (the Nebraska ML win).

In other words, the sportsbooks aren't confident enough in Colorado to load them up to -7 to -10. Even if the public is moving the line that way. You do that and you risk a Nebraska ML win absolutely cleaning you out.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Maybe Vegas isn’t buying the goods just yet. Big 12 didn’t have a good weekend & TCU doesn’t look like a team that’ll repeat last year. If u want a perfect example of how trash TCU’s defense was just look at the TD where they tossed left out of shotgun & every DB looked completely unaware it was a run play & he walked right by em. It was a classic Big 12 defense & reminded me of Chinander’s Oklahoma performance

TCU was awful last year in giving up explosive plays.... The thing that saved them is they were among the best at getting them on offense.

Thing I will say is Colorado has a few spots they are probably the best we will see all year (WR, QB, DB), but pretty much everywhere else should be among the worst we will see all year.

I am not sure I have ever seen a team built like this.

 

[Mr.Bojangles]

That's the question

Agreed

 

[Tonkasker]

There are no whales coming in on Nebraska though, that's the point. All the public money is coming in on Colorado.

The sportsbooks just got crushed on CU +800 ML last week. So they're in a unique spot this week. They could go CU all the way up to -10 and STILL get a ton of action on both sides, but then they run the same risk of exposure this week, just on the opposite side (the Nebraska ML win).

In other words, the sportsbooks aren't confident enough in Colorado to load them up to -7 to -10. Even if the public is moving the line that way. You do that and you risk a Nebraska ML win absolutely cleaning you out.

That’s my point. The public is thousands putting $20 on Colorado spread, not guys doing it for a living putting $5k and up on Colorado to cover, those are pros.

Pros are also multi-millionaires who bet based on EV only with 54% records over five years. Their algorithms are hammering Nebraska on historical line adjustment trends. Even if it’s not an overreaction now, over the course of ten years you’re probably cashing A good clip fading ten point line adjustments. It’s not because they like Hartzog matched up against Travis hunter

 

[Mr.Bojangles]

Vegas is begging you to take Colorado.

 

[HerbRedman]

That’s my point. The public is thousands putting $20 on Colorado spread, not guys doing it for a living putting $5k and up on Colorado to cover, those are pros.

Pros are also multi-millionaires who bet based on EV only with 54% records over five years. Their algorithms are hammering Nebraska on historical line adjustment trends. Even if it’s not an overreaction now, over the course of ten years you’re probably cashing A good clip fading ten point line adjustments. It’s not because they like Hugehog matched up against Travis hunter

Gotcha. Yes that's probably that line is locked at -2.5 and only goes to -3.0 max. Crazy considering the public favorite is also the home team - all those $20 bets and Vegas is still like, 'keep it coming, keep betting Colorado.'

Will be interesting to see what happens to the line if there's a big sharp infusion on Friday night.

 

[HerbRedman]

Vegas is begging you to take Colorado.

Correct.

 

[Stan Raymond]

LOL

I made $$$ taking Nebraska +7.5 at Minnesota..I said they'd lose in APR but cover and that was the fuckin lock of the century.

I'd much rather just take CU this week but when the line is THAT much against public opinion (everyone is on CU this week)...it gives you pause as a gambler. It's just not passing the smell test for me yet.

Every single ESPN/FOX/CBS/Athletic/NYTimes CFB pundit is touting Colorado this year as a legit top 25 team. Yet they're only -2.5 vs a mediocre 0-1 team at home? It's just odd. Unless it moves to -5.0

Rewatched both games. I think Nebraska wins by more than a TD. No way is Colorado a top 25 team, still think they are going to have a losing record. TCU is going to have a rough season. Colorado has a good QB, smart OC, and speed at WR, but that is about all. Defense was bad, Special Teams worse and running game non existent, they are going to rely on short passes and hope that their speed can get away.

 

[HerbRedman]

Rewatched both games. I think Nebraska wins by more than a TD. No way is Colorado a top 25 team, still think they are going to have a losing record. TCU is going to have a rough season. Colorado has a good QB, smart OC, and speed at WR, but that is about all. Defense was bad, Special Teams worse and running game non existent, they are going to rely on short passes and hope that their speed can get away.

I was trying to say this about TCU as the game thread was going, but everyone on here was like "CU is a CFP team!!"

TCU looked like a 4-8 team.

A lot of the national articles weren't mentioning this. I read Stewart Mandel and his article just slobbered Deion and didn't mention it. How bad TCU looked is a key part of this.

 

[Adolph Coors]

I was trying to say this about TCU as the game thread was going, but everyone on here was like "CU is a CFP team!!"

TCU looked like a 4-8 team.

A lot of the national articles weren't mentioning this. I read Stewart Mandel and his article just slobbered Deion and didn't mention it. How bad TCU looked is a key part of this.

TCU still shouldve won the game

 

[Toe]

These threads are making me wonder who would win in a TCU vs Minnesota game, lol. Feels like you could take it as a proxy for Nebraska vs Colorado.

 

[HerbRedman]

TCU still shouldve won the game

Funny thing is if you change 1 play in each game, NU wins narrowly and CU loses narrowly.

The interesting thought experiment is how would public opinion be different if NU won/ CU lost?

This is actually all a gift for Rhule & his team if they can take advantage of it. CU is deadly as an underdog/us against the world team. CU as the favorite is different for them. Honestly, Deion probably didn't think they'd be a favorite for a while, but here they are.

Now Rhule gets to do the us against the world thing.

 

[ChocaEgg]

These threads are making me wonder who would win in a TCU vs Minnesota game, lol. Feels like you could take it as a proxy for Nebraska vs Colorado.

Tcu

 

[HerbRedman]

These threads are making me wonder who would win in a TCU vs Minnesota game, lol. Feels like you could take it as a proxy for Nebraska vs Colorado.

Minnesota would at the very least try to control the clock. And they damn sure wouldn't commit 10 penalties at home. And their QB wouldn't routinely be throwing across his body into double coverage. TCU did literally everything wrong you could do when playing this CU team.

CU would at least have had to work for their points at Minnesota. I'm not confident they'd be up to the challenge. They might win 5 out of 10 there, who knows.

**edit: oh you said TCU. TCU loses at Minnesota 9 out of 10 tries. This is going to be the worst TCU team since the 4-8 Patterson team in 2013.

 

[Tonkasker]

I am not sure I have ever seen a team built like this.

Thought about this for awhile while walking my dog - last year’s Arizona team is a great comp.

Dynamic, accurate QB in DeLaura

Electric wideouts in Singer (now at USC) and Jacob Cowing

Coming off a 1-win season with no trench depth.

Every team they lost to RTDB. I think this team is more talented and I really like Fisch as a coach but if you look at some box scores you can probably glean some info about this Colorado team.

It’s actually kind of encouraging to think that Cal had a kid rush for 274 yards in a blowout win despite having “no offense” and Arizona lighting up scoreboards

 

[Toe]

Tcu

TCU loses at Minnesota 9 out of 10 tries. This is going to be the worst TCU team since the 4-8 Patterson team in 2013.

That's one vote for TCU and one vote for Minnesota so far!

 

[HerbRedman]

That's one vote for TCU and one vote for Minnesota so far!

Let me just add to this: TCU had 10 penalties AT HOME last week. They'd have 15 penalties on the road at Minnesota.

Also, TCU had 2 turnovers and should have had 2 more (DBs dropped it). So should have had 4 turnovers...vs a very very bad CU defense. Again, this was at home.

There is no chance *this* TCU would go on the road and beat Minnesota. Zero chance.