Serious question: how is CU only favored -2.5?

[HerbRedman]

Who is actually betting on Nebraska? We were 4-8 last year, fired our coach. New coach is already 0-1, had an embarrassment at QB last game on national TV for all the world to see.

The entire nation is loving Deion right now, CU just beat the #17 team in the nation on the road.

Who is putting money on Nebraska right now - does anyone have any theories? It's not our fans - our fans are suicidal right now. Is this the old Big Ten guard putting money on the old guard team?

I would put this line around CU -7.0 at home. But at this rate I don't think it will get there. Anyone have any insight why it's not getting higher than -2.5?

 

[HerbRedman]

To clarify what I mean: there's no real way this could be a 45-42 game like CU-TCU. Nebraska doesn't have the weapons to keep up.

And CU doesn't seem like they'd get "Big Ten'd" at home and get stuck in a 20-17 game.

If you like CU, you'd have to think this is going to be a 14-28 pt win for them. You'd think the money would be flowing to CU and that line would be moving. But it's not really yet.

 

[Kaladin]

 

[Tonkasker]

I feel like the algos are crushing Nebraska based on backloaded Colorado info and/or assumptions made about the roster.

Take a look at ESPN’s FPI. No way is Colorado the 71st team in the country

 

[Drue629]

When the line first opened as Nebraska being a favorite I was very tempted to throw some money on CU. Obviously, that would make me a piece of shit Nebraska fan so I withheld but it was tempting. Still is... FML

 

[whoboppin]

Their defense is trash. Our fans would be freaking out had we gotten cen up 540+ yards.

We watched the Frost era. A 45 second 3 and out isn’t going to help CU’s shitty defense. Nebraska should be scoring at will in the 2nd half if Nebraska’s defense can get stops.

 

[HerbRedman]

I feel like the algos are crushing Nebraska based on backloaded Colorado info and/or assumptions made about the roster.

Take a look at ESPN’s FPI. No way is Colorado the 71st team in the country

But that FanDuel line is set and moved based on $$$ bets and activity. What gamblers are really using those FPI etc to bet this game? Everyone saw NU and CU. Gamblers use that stuff for teams they don't see like Air Force or Toledo, etc.

If this stays at -2.5 by FRI that's gonna be a real eyebrow raiser for me. This is a CU home game. They're gonna have tons of emotion. They'll probably get the better referee calls. NU looked mediocre w major question marks in game one. I see this line at CU -7.0.

If it stays at -2.5 I might have to play the Skers in this one. Which I don't want to do.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Who is putting money on Nebraska right now - does anyone have any theories? It's not our fans - our fans are suicidal right now. Is this the old Big Ten guard putting money on the old guard team?

Pros vs Joes

Joes are driving it to where we are now.

Pros have algos that probably favor us. They aren't going to ride the emotional rollercoaster that fans do.

Not saying I would bet on us, but that is my only guess.

 

[Sous Chef]

But that FanDuel line is set and moved based on $$$ bets and activity. What gamblers are really using those FPI etc to bet this game? Everyone saw NU and CU. Gamblers use that stuff for teams they don't see like Air Force or Toledo, etc.

If this stays at -2.5 by FRI that's gonna be a real eyebrow raiser for me. This is a CU home game. They're gonna have tons of emotion. They'll probably get the better referee calls. NU looked mediocre w major question marks in game one. I see this line at CU -7.0.

If it stays at -2.5 I might have to play the Skers in this one. Which I don't want to do.

I think you just answered your original question.

 

[Kaladin]

 

[HerbRedman]

I think you just answered your original question.

LOL

I made $$$ taking Nebraska +7.5 at Minnesota..I said they'd lose in APR but cover and that was the fuckin lock of the century.

I'd much rather just take CU this week but when the line is THAT much against public opinion (everyone is on CU this week)...it gives you pause as a gambler. It's just not passing the smell test for me yet.

Every single ESPN/FOX/CBS/Athletic/NYTimes CFB pundit is touting Colorado this year as a legit top 25 team. Yet they're only -2.5 vs a mediocre 0-1 team at home? It's just odd. Unless it moves to -5.0

 

[Kaladin]

 

[Kaladin]

 

[HerbRedman]

That's fascinating. Thank you.

Again if you watch the TV talking heads or read the message boards, you have CU winning 55-10. The betting markets are the ultimate truth serum (in some cases).

It's an odd line to play because CU is not built for a grind it out +3 or -3 type of game. They're built to blow people out or get blown out. The 45-42 last week only happened because TCU was a unique brand of suck.

 

[HerbRedman]

Man you are bringing the goods today @Kaladin !

What that guy in the video was saying about Nebraska was exactly my point with this thread. It's just bizarre to see that line when the entire world is ready to bet their entire life savings on Colorado. As the guy was saying, you could put it at -7.0 and you'd STILL get tons of $$$ on Colorado.

Really fuckin bizarre. Unless Nebraska is the obvious play.

 

[Sous Chef]

LOL

I made $$$ taking Nebraska +7.5 at Minnesota..I said they'd lose in APR but cover and that was the fuckin lock of the century.

I'd much rather just take CU this week but when the line is THAT much against public opinion (everyone is on CU this week)...it gives you pause as a gambler. It's just not passing the smell test for me yet.

Every single ESPN/FOX/CBS/Athletic/NYTimes CFB pundit is touting Colorado this year as a legit top 25 team. Yet they're only -2.5 vs a mediocre 0-1 team at home? It's just odd. Unless it moves to -5.0

I agree its odd. These types of games are why I rarely lay bets. Every cell in my brain says betting CU is easy money. Sure things almost never are in betting. It could be that TCU is just that bad, but I have my doubts.

 

[Adolph Coors]

i may out $500 on nebraska. lock of the century. we will bulldoze them and rush for 300+

 

[HerbRedman]

I agree its odd. These types of games are why I rarely lay bets. Every cell in my brain says betting CU is easy money. Sure things almost never are in betting. It could be that TCU is just that bad, but I have my doubts.

If you watched that video, the guy was talking about how the -1.5 is just an invitation for the public to bet Colorado. Which is odd bc the public doesn't need any motivation to bet Colorado - they're already all in on Colorado.

He thinks it's an indication of how strongly the books feel about Nebraska this week.

 

[Mr.Bojangles]

Who is actually betting on Nebraska? We were 4-8 last year, fired our coach. New coach is already 0-1, had an embarrassment at QB last game on national TV for all the world to see.

The entire nation is loving Deion right now, CU just beat the #17 team in the nation on the road.

Who is putting money on Nebraska right now - does anyone have any theories? It's not our fans - our fans are suicidal right now. Is this the old Big Ten guard putting money on the old guard team?

I would put this line around CU -7.0 at home. But at this rate I don't think it will get there. Anyone have any insight why it's not getting higher than -2.5?

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I believe they probably thought TCU was hot garbage and Colorado just isn't as good as they looked Saturday. Just spit balling don't know for sure. Plus Colorado's front defense is really bad looking at the stats.

 

[Jim14510]

if Nebraska’s defense can get stops.

That's the question