We aren't winning out as is, but I'll humor that point just for the thought experiment.
In the situation that we're looking for another opponent on 12/12, we're already in the situation where we don't get to .500 unless we play (and win). Some fucking leverage we got there...not to mention, .500 doesn't matter this year, even if bowls actually end up happening (not convinced they do at this point, but it's fair to ignore that reality for the good of the thought experiment).
Regarding the decision process, it doesn't stop at #2. They approach us and we pretend like we have a big dick when we really have next to nothing but a shitshow going on in Lincoln, it's not like 3) well, we tried, but nothing worked out, so Ohio State beat Indiana head's up and they get to go to the title game isn't on the table. Laughable to think otherwise.