The domino effect is coming. We just don’t yet know who will set it off.
There are more than 1,000 college football players currently active in the transfer portal and hundreds (or maybe even thousands) more coming soon. Predictably, it is the
quarterback crop that is generating the most attention and intrigue by far right now. And boy, it sure is a bountiful crop this year.
Last year, the biggest names at quarterback who made moves were
McKenzie Milton and
Jack Coan, two former starters coming off injuries, along with
Tyler Shough,
Hendon Hooker, Joe Milton and a few wild-card backups like
Tanner Mordecai,
Ryan Hilinski and T.J. Finley. There were some solid players in that group —
and Bailey Zappe! — but clearly, the quality of this growing QB transfer class already looks incomparable.
There are three former five-star QBs in the portal and more than a dozen former four-stars. There are more than 25 players available who were once considered top-50 QB recruits in their respective classes. Among this year’s waiver wire quarterbacks is a former Heisman frontrunner, a No. 1 overall recruit, the nation’s leading passer in 2020 and several team captains who have started more than 30 games.
And we’re barely halfway through December.
Based on how this cycle is playing out on a daily basis, another big-name quarterback probably hit the portal right as you finished reading this sentence. One college football staffer told
The Athletic on Monday they’re expecting two more major waves of transfers: one after the bowl games and potentially another after the College Football Playoff wraps up.
Still, there are enough quarterbacks available right now that you have to wonder when the dominoes start to fall. We’re now in a recruiting dead period, which means no in-person visits until January. That might slow things down a little, or it might just mean these transfers get impatient and make quick decisions. Some can afford to wait, and some cannot.
How is this quarterback market shaping up? Here’s a look at the top QBs available, the schools they’re visiting and what might come next. Let’s start with the surprise that came out of Columbia, S.C. on Monday.
Leaving: Oklahoma
YEAR | GAMES | PASSING | COMP % | RUSHING | TDS | INTS |
---|
2021 | 9 | 1438 | 75% | 77 | 14 | 5 |
This recruitment stayed very quiet. Rattler did not advertise any of his offers or visits after making the decision on Nov. 29 to enter the portal. In fact, it’s unclear whether he actually made a campus visit to his future home before making his decision. But suddenly, on Monday night, it was a done deal. Rattler is going to South Carolina, along with tight end
Austin Stogner, his Oklahoma teammate.
It’s a heck of a coup for coach Shane Beamer, who knows Rattler well from his time at Oklahoma as assistant head coach. These transfer decisions often come down to relationships and trust, and clearly Rattler feels good about the combination of coach and opportunity. The second recruiting process becomes more of a business decision. That’s especially true for Rattler, who’s trying to play his way back into first-round status by putting up big numbers in 2022. He’s going to a team that was in desperate need of good, steady quarterback play after starting
Zeb Noland,
Luke Doty and
Jason Brown in 2021. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Gamecocks adjust their direction on offense to fit Rattler and the talent he’s bringing to the table.
Rattler might be a one-year rental, but he might also be just what Beamer needs going into Year 2 to really get this rebuild rolling after exceeding expectations with a 6-6 debut season.
Leaving: Ohio State
YEAR | GAMES | PASSING | COMP % | RUSHING | TDS | INTS |
---|
2021 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Texas was the instant favorite as soon as Ewers put his name in the portal and took care of business with a massively important pickup for Steve Sarkisian to inspire confidence about the Longhorns’ direction. There’s no need to recap the entire Ewers saga here (
read this instead). But it’s a sign of the times in this sport that arguably the three biggest commitments Sarkisian has landed so far at Texas — Ewers,
Xavier Worthy and
Kelvin Banks — are players who had initially signed or committed elsewhere. You have to play the long game sometimes. Circumstances can change, and persistence can eventually pay off.
What will the arrival of Ewers mean for
Casey Thompson and
Hudson Card? It’s fair to suspect either or both could move on. Thompson led the Big 12 in passing touchdowns while throwing with a seriously injured hand. Card initially won the starting job in fall camp and had it taken away by the end of Texas’ second game. If one was more likely to stick around and embrace competing for the job, it might be Thompson. But he has also flirted with transferring before. Card, the No. 4 QB recruit in the 2020 class, will have plenty of offers if he goes in the portal. If both leave, Texas will probably need to bring in a veteran backup via the portal.
Texas Tech took a shot on Ewers and got him in for a visit, but their staff is not believed to be seeking other transfer QBs at this time.
Leaving: UCF
YEAR | GAMES | PASSING | COMP % | RUSHING | TDS | INTS |
---|
2021 | 3 | 814 | 69% | 125 | 11 | 3 |
Here’s one of those players who could get really get this big game of musical chairs moving. We know Gabriel has taken visits to Ole Miss and UCLA. We don’t know if there are more schools in the picture for him. We know
Matt Corral is entering the NFL Draft. We don’t know if
Dorian Thompson-Robinson is, too. Although it might be easy to assume that UCLA is getting Gabriel since it didn’t get Rattler, that’s no certainty.
Then again, the key Ole Miss connection for Gabriel was his former offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby, who is now the OC at Oklahoma. The Sooners
picked up a commitment from incoming freshman Nick Evers on Monday, but there’s still no clarity on what
Caleb Williams is planning to do. If he ends up leaving, you’d think Lebby would want to bring in Gabriel. See how complicated these decisions can get? Gabriel is one player who could probably sit back and see how some of these situations play out over the next few weeks. Doesn’t mean he will.
The prolific two-year starter at UCF, who led FBS in passing yards per game last season, endured a brutal setback this fall. Three games in, he suffered a fractured clavicle in his throwing arm on the final play of a stunning loss to Louisville. He wasn’t able to come back from that and play again, but it appears he is back to throwing and training now.
Cameron Ward
Leaving: Incarnate Word (FCS)
YEAR | GAMES | PASSING | COMP % | RUSHING | TDS | INTS |
---|
2021 | 13 | 4,648 | 65% | 78 | 48 | 10 |
Ward is the most interesting quarterback on the market, and it’s not even close. Never heard of him? The 6-foot-3, 220-pound passer is a playmaker with a big-time arm who won the Jerry Rice Award, given to the top freshman in FCS, this spring. He followed that up by leading all FCS quarterbacks in passing touchdowns and ranking No. 3 in passing yards while guiding Incarnate Word to a 10-win season. At the end of that dominant season, Incarnate Word coach Eric Morris left to become the OC at Washington State. Ward, a former zero-star recruit who went overlooked because he played in a Wing-T offense in high school, decided to put his name in the portal and see what options he had.
Ole Miss has emerged as the early favorite after bringing him in for an official visit on Saturday and Sunday. Ward has also been offered by Indiana, Houston and North Texas and plans to talk with West Virginia and Washington State this week. He did also visit Liberty, which ended up landing former Utah and Baylor quarterback
Charlie Brewer.
Ward put up his monster numbers in an Air Raid offense and wants to ideally play in a similar kind of system, so it’s easy to see why the transition into Lane Kiffin’s offense looks appealing. He and his family will go over their options this week and determine whether it’s best to commit to Ole Miss or wait and take more visits in January. Could Kiffin take Gabriel
and Ward? The FCS transfer wouldn’t be afraid to compete for the job if that’s the case.
Leaving: USC
YEAR | GAMES | PASSING | COMP % | TDS | INTS |
---|
2021 | 9 | 2,153 | 65% | 11 | 8 |
Slovis just entered the transfer portal on Monday morning, so it’s a little too early to speculate on where he’s trying to go. After a terrific true freshman season, he dealt with
injury and confidence issues over the past two seasons that made it tough to keep progressing and playing at the high level he flashed in 2019. Still, Slovis was a first-team All-Pac 12 performer in 2020 and is a
top-15 QB prospect in the upcoming draft if he were to go pro. He’s in a similar position as Rattler: Can you go put in one great bounceback year elsewhere that brings back all the draft hype?
For most of these teams seeking a portal QB, Slovis is worth chasing. It’s worth noting that the grad transfer has a Pitt connection — his girlfriend plays soccer there — and that program does need to replace Heisman finalist
Kenny Pickett, though it does not have an offensive coordinator right now. That’s because Mark Whipple left for Nebraska, another school that very much needs a starting quarterback out of the portal.
Leaving: Auburn
YEAR | GAMES | PASSING | COMP % | RUSHING | TDS | INTS |
---|
2021 | 10 | 2,294 | 61% | 168 | 15 | 3 |
Sunday’s decision to leave by Nix, an Auburn legacy and 34-game starter, was already intriguing enough. But the way he chose to enter the portal on Monday added some mystery to the process. Nix indicated on his portal submission that he does not want to be contacted by other schools, according to a source. You rarely see FBS players choose that option. And when they do, it’s usually because they already know where they’re going.
This can be how it goes with portal recruiting: if you want to make contact once the player is officially in the database, you might already be too late. Nix is either trying to save money on his cell phone bill or has his next destination all lined up. We’ll see if this one moves fast. It’s worth noting that Nix did have season-ending ankle surgery in November, so he’ll have to go through a recovery process that will take time and affect his availability for winter and spring workouts.
Auburn has a real need at quarterback now and should be a player for several of these top passers. Keep an eye on freshman backup
Dematrius Davis. Multiple sources told
The Athletic he’s considering entering the portal as well. If he does, the Tigers would be down to T.J. Finley and incoming freshman Holden Geriner.
Leaving: LSU
YEAR | GAMES | PASSING | COMP % | TDS | INTS |
---|
2021 | 12 | 2,814 | 60% | 28 | 6 |
The school to watch here is Texas A&M. The Aggies are pursuing Johnson, multiple sources said, and were prior to starting quarterback
Zach Calzada putting his name in the portal on Monday. In his final game at LSU, Johnson threw for 306 yards and three touchdowns in a 27-24 upset win over the Aggies. It would be rather remarkable if Jimbo Fisher makes this move and brings in the former starting QB of his SEC West rival.
Johnson started 14 games for the Tigers over his first two seasons and showed a lot of potential. If you sign the sophomore lefty, there’s a good chance you’ll also get his brother Jake Johnson, the No. 1 tight end recruit in the 2022 class. He decommitted from LSU on the same day his brother put his name in the portal. That should incentivize a lot of teams to get involved.
Calzada,
the unforgettable hero of Texas A&M’s victory over No. 1 Alabama, is moving on, but it would be a surprise if
Haynes King did so as well. The redshirt freshman, who won the starting job but has been out since Week 2 with a broken tibia, could return for the bowl game against Wake Forest. The Aggies do have
five-star freshman Conner Weigman on the way as well. If Johnson ends up in College Station, he’d have to win a competitive battle to start.
Leaving: LSU
YEAR | GAMES | PASSING | COMP % | TDS | INTS |
---|
2020 | 3 | 1,112 | 60% | 11 | 3 |
Is this the guy for Nebraska? Brennan appears to be the top target of the Huskers, who just hired LSU’s Mickey Joseph as their new receivers coach. It’s curious, though, that Nebraska hosted a lot of transfer targets over the weekend and Brennan wasn’t on the visitor list. It’s possible Nebraska got him in for an official visit before the dead period and was able to keep it quiet.
Going with Brennan would be a gamble, especially given the pressure on Scott Frost to turn this program around. Brennan started three games over his five years at LSU and has had to miss the Tigers’ last 19 games due to injuries. Some argue that Brennan is the better of the two LSU QBs in the portal, but availability is a pretty important ability. In the case of Frost and Nebraska, that track record does raise the question: Should you bet your job on him?
If Brennan is eyeing other programs and doesn’t pick the Huskers, perhaps they can contend for Slovis or Gabriel or another QB who hasn’t gone in the portal yet. But after losing their longtime starter, Nebraska might want to take multiple transfers in this cycle — one to start and one to develop.
Leaving: Nebraska
YEAR | GAMES | PASSING | COMP % | RUSHING | TDS | INTS |
---|
2021 | 11 | 2,863 | 62% | 525 | 27 | 10 |
The common refrain when Martinez went in the portal on Dec. 2:
Wait, he still has more eligibility? He sure does. The four-year starter and three-year captain who broke Nebraska’s career records for total offense and completions decided it was best to play his super senior year elsewhere.
Martinez has now taken two visits to Kansas State this month, so it seems safe to say the Wildcats are in good shape. That fit makes good sense, too, with his dual-threat abilities. K-State has had to play 12 games without
Skylar Thompson over the past two seasons and has averaged 139.6 passing yards per game without him. Martinez can make that passing attack more dangerous. He just needs to be healthy, and he played through a lot in 2021: a broken jaw, a sprained ankle and a shoulder injury that required surgery.
So his availability for the spring is something that needs to be determined, as does Kansas State’s vacancy at offensive coordinator. But Martinez still seems like the take for K-State. The fact that his girlfriend plays soccer there doesn’t hurt, either. Cal is also in the mix here. Martinez was previously committed there in 2016 while in high school.
Michael Penix Jr.
Leaving: Indiana
YEAR | GAMES | PASSING | COMP % | TDS | INTS |
---|
2021 | 5 | 939 | 54% | 6 | 7 |
Penix took a visit to UCF this weekend … and also reportedly showed up at Washington? With the dead period starting this week, it does make sense for a transfer like him to try to get multiple trips in. Penix is another very talented player with an injury history who could be a terrific take if he can get his playing career back on track.
The upside is obvious. We saw it in 2020 when he led Indiana to a 4-0 start, scored his unforgettable game-winner against Penn State and threw for 491 yards and five touchdowns in a close loss to Ohio State. The downside is also, sadly, obvious. Penix wasn’t able to finish any of his four seasons at Indiana due to injuries. He didn’t look like the same player in 2021 before an injury to his throwing shoulder shut him down indefinitely. As is the case with many of these QBs, interested coaching staffs will do their homework and find out how concerning the medical history is with Penix. Washington’s new staff pursuing transfer options makes sense after
Jake Haener stayed at Fresno State. Could a healthy Penix be the difference-maker they need to push
Sam Huard and/or possibly start?
Leaving: Akron
YEAR | GAMES | PASSING | COMP % | RUSHING | TDS | INTS |
---|
2021 | 7 | 1,262 | 69% | 57 | 10 | 0 |
This one is looking good for Georgia Tech. Gibson is a Georgia native, and his brother Tyler is a commit in the Yellow Jackets’ 2022 class. Gibson was supposed to take a visit to Nebraska over the weekend but did not. The Yellow Jackets lost backup
Jordan Yates to the portal and need someone to compete with
Jeff Sims. He’s not a well-known name like these other guys and only started five games for the Zips this fall, but Gibson put up really good numbers with 1,319 total yards on 8.0 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Leaving: Florida State
YEAR | GAMES | PASSING | COMP % | RUSHING | TDS | INTS |
---|
2021 | 1 | 98 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Purdy came into Florida State with a lot of hype. Injuries prevented him making the kind of impact early on in his career that his older brother Brock enjoyed at Cockeyes State. After undergoing four procedures in eight months, Purdy is healthy again and ready to play. He started one game as a true freshman but appeared in just four games over his first two seasons. Now he might be moving on to another ACC program. Purdy took an official visit to Pitt over the weekend and could be the guy who goes there to contend to replace Pickett. Whipple did an in-home visit with Purdy right before he resigned to take the Nebraska OC job, so he could end up being a target for the Huskers as well.