Omaha's housing market

[BIG TONE SOPRANO]

I’ve been saying that for years. Builders have switched to custom homes and not the volume builds

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Decent chance that we'll end up back in a recession in the next couple years, maybe they'll lower rates again and we can all refinance! Yeah, fat chance...

I think it was Goldman Sachs was saying the likelihood of a recession was "very very high"

 

[Toe]

I think around where I live at least, we might finally be reaching the tipping point. When I look at listings online, I'm starting to notice more houses that have had their asking price cut. I also have a neighbor who's a realtor, and she said she's been getting fewer viewers for houses she has for sale.

Question is, what happens next? I doubt that we'll see prices come down much on a national average level, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if some areas do see a 2008-style crash. My feeling is that around here, prices will probably just level off for a while. And even if asking prices fall, rising interest rates will offset that.

 

[kyle23]

In the last two weeks I've had four people reach out expressing interest in my off market acreage.

It's tempting to cash in, but the sad reality is that my options after selling are limited to moving into the middle of town or moving 2-3 hours outside of Omaha.

I almost want to list it to see what happens.

 

[Toe]

Looked at a house on Friday, was gonna put in an offer on Saturday. Went under contract before I even had a chance to get my offer in, with no warning. 🤦‍♂️

 

[Huskerbuck85]

So true! You have to love when the principal on your loan is only $100k, but thanks to property taxes and insurance in the escrow, your payment is almost $1,200.

Pretty sweet…I pay about $830/month. Last year unpaid the principal down by just over $1,000. Someone’s getting fucked and it’s me.

I’m going to raise my kids to be carpenters for a hobby, pay $30k cash for a home, fix it up and tell banks to fuck themselves as long as they can hold out.

 

[BIG TONE SOPRANO]

Looked at a house on Friday, was gonna put in an offer on Saturday. Went under contract before I even had a chance to get my offer in, with no warning. 🤦‍♂️

Prison rules brother. Wait 6 months

 

[BIG TONE SOPRANO]

Pretty sweet…I pay about $830/month. Last year unpaid the principal down by just over $1,000. Someone’s getting fucked and it’s me.

I’m going to raise my kids to be carpenters for a hobby, pay $30k cash for a home, fix it up and tell banks to fuck themselves as long as they can hold out.

In Omaha, it makes more sense to rent than pay taxes and principal on a 30 yr loan. You don’t even start paying more principal than interest until year 10-11.

 

[MtnHusker]

We are expecting rates to continue to climb up. Some of our Clients are looking at 7 Year Arms as they have much lower rates. There are also some Credit Unions that are doing some creative financing with loans that have lower rates. Make sure you are shopping around on Loans right now as there are options that some of the middle of the road Lenders aren't using.

Also Jumbo Rates are much lower than Conventional. We ran numbers and could actually save clients over $400/month on payments if it just hit the point where it was classified as a Jumbo. Here is a piece I worked up for a client 2 days ago:

Jumbo loans with 20% down are over 1% lower in rate versus a 20% down 2nd home Fannie and Freddie loan. You can save substantially on Monthly Payments by purchasing a more expensive home that requires a jumbo loan. Going from $647,200 at 6.5% to $647,250 at 5.25% lowers the payment by $409 a month! The classification for Jumbo differs by state, $647,200 in most areas and $970,800 in high-cost areas.

If a buyer looks at 2 homes,

one at $809,250,

one at $707,400.

Buying a $809,250 home is the same as paying $707,400 using a 20% down conforming loan amount. Homes over $809,250 could be in demand over the summer.

Examples: 2nd Home

Sale price $707,400

20% down

Loan amount $565,920

Payment $3577 @6.5%


$809,250 sale price

2nd home 20% down Jumbo

Loan amount $647,400

Jumbo Rate 5.25%

Payment $3574.97

 

[Cash68847]

We are expecting rates to continue to climb up. Some of our Clients are looking at 7 Year Arms as they have much lower rates. There are also some Credit Unions that are doing some creative financing with loans that have lower rates. Make sure you are shopping around on Loans right now as there are options that some of the middle of the road Lenders aren't using.

Also Jumbo Rates are much lower than Conventional. We ran numbers and could actually save clients over $400/month on payments if it just hit the point where it was classified as a Jumbo. Here is a piece I worked up for a client 2 days ago:

Jumbo loans with 20% down are over 1% lower in rate versus a 20% down 2nd home Fannie and Freddie loan. You can save substantially on Monthly Payments by purchasing a more expensive home that requires a jumbo loan. Going from $647,200 at 6.5% to $647,250 at 5.25% lowers the payment by $409 a month! The classification for Jumbo differs by state, $647,200 in most areas and $970,800 in high-cost areas.

If a buyer looks at 2 homes,

one at $809,250,

one at $707,400.

Buying a $809,250 home is the same as paying $707,400 using a 20% down conforming loan amount. Homes over $809,250 could be in demand over the summer.

Examples: 2nd Home

Sale price $707,400

20% down

Loan amount $565,920

Payment $3577 @6.5%


$809,250 sale price

2nd home 20% down Jumbo

Loan amount $647,400

Jumbo Rate 5.25%

Payment $3574.97

I would be scared to do an arm. That’s a good way to fuck yourself down the road.

 

[Cash68847]

Pretty sweet…I pay about $830/month. Last year unpaid the principal down by just over $1,000. Someone’s getting fucked and it’s me.

I’m going to raise my kids to be carpenters for a hobby, pay $30k cash for a home, fix it up and tell banks to fuck themselves as long as they can hold out.

The carpenters I knew would build a new house live in it 2-3 years make the good profit and keep building bigger and better. It made sense then. I don’t know if it does right now.

 

[ChocaEgg]

We are expecting rates to continue to climb up. Some of our Clients are looking at 7 Year Arms as they have much lower rates. There are also some Credit Unions that are doing some creative financing with loans that have lower rates. Make sure you are shopping around on Loans right now as there are options that some of the middle of the road Lenders aren't using.

Also Jumbo Rates are much lower than Conventional. We ran numbers and could actually save clients over $400/month on payments if it just hit the point where it was classified as a Jumbo. Here is a piece I worked up for a client 2 days ago:

Jumbo loans with 20% down are over 1% lower in rate versus a 20% down 2nd home Fannie and Freddie loan. You can save substantially on Monthly Payments by purchasing a more expensive home that requires a jumbo loan. Going from $647,200 at 6.5% to $647,250 at 5.25% lowers the payment by $409 a month! The classification for Jumbo differs by state, $647,200 in most areas and $970,800 in high-cost areas.

If a buyer looks at 2 homes,

one at $809,250,

one at $707,400.

Buying a $809,250 home is the same as paying $707,400 using a 20% down conforming loan amount. Homes over $809,250 could be in demand over the summer.

Examples: 2nd Home

Sale price $707,400

20% down

Loan amount $565,920

Payment $3577 @6.5%


$809,250 sale price

2nd home 20% down Jumbo

Loan amount $647,400

Jumbo Rate 5.25%

Payment $3574.97

Just another way we screw the middle class and build in ways for the rich to save money.

 

[Jay Bilzerian]

We are expecting rates to continue to climb up. Some of our Clients are looking at 7 Year Arms as they have much lower rates. There are also some Credit Unions that are doing some creative financing with loans that have lower rates. Make sure you are shopping around on Loans right now as there are options that some of the middle of the road Lenders aren't using.

Also Jumbo Rates are much lower than Conventional. We ran numbers and could actually save clients over $400/month on payments if it just hit the point where it was classified as a Jumbo. Here is a piece I worked up for a client 2 days ago:

Jumbo loans with 20% down are over 1% lower in rate versus a 20% down 2nd home Fannie and Freddie loan. You can save substantially on Monthly Payments by purchasing a more expensive home that requires a jumbo loan. Going from $647,200 at 6.5% to $647,250 at 5.25% lowers the payment by $409 a month! The classification for Jumbo differs by state, $647,200 in most areas and $970,800 in high-cost areas.

If a buyer looks at 2 homes,

one at $809,250,

one at $707,400.

Buying a $809,250 home is the same as paying $707,400 using a 20% down conforming loan amount. Homes over $809,250 could be in demand over the summer.

Examples: 2nd Home

Sale price $707,400

20% down

Loan amount $565,920

Payment $3577 @6.5%


$809,250 sale price

2nd home 20% down Jumbo

Loan amount $647,400

Jumbo Rate 5.25%

Payment $3574.97

Shit we're offering "professionals" a percent discount and 5% down with no PMI on loans up to a million. Professional being defined as JD, CPA, CFA, DVM, PA, NP. There's a separate program for MDs.

 

[Toe]

In Omaha, it makes more sense to rent than pay taxes and principal on a 30 yr loan. You don’t even start paying more principal than interest until year 10-11.

Yeah, this is something I've been thinking about myself. I'm actually getting a pretty solid lease price on my current rental - substantially less than what my monthly payments are likely to be when I buy. Problem is, there's no guarantee that the price will stay low the next time I renew my lease, or the time after that...

 

[Cash68847]

Yeah, this is something I've been thinking about myself. I'm actually getting a pretty solid lease price on my current rental - substantially less than what my monthly payments are likely to be when I buy. Problem is, there's no guarantee that the price will stay low the next time I renew my lease, or the time after that...

You’re in kind of a bad spot right now with the uncertainty. You would think house prices are going to come down with interest rates going up. I’ve read by 2023 they will probably be 8 percent on a 30 year loan. If you’re going to buy it would be nice to have a substantial down payment.

 

[MtnHusker]

I would be scared to do an arm. That’s a good way to fuck yourself down the road.

If you look at the charts there are corrections/crashes/swings..... whatever you want to call it every 10-15 years. We learned in the Crash of 2008 when people were crushed by ARM's that were 2-5 years. They didn't have enough time for rates or comps to recover. Some of the ARMS now that are 7 years will go with a low rate like 2.75% for the first 7 years then adjust every 6 months with a Cap of 6.5%. Lenders have actually learned from some of the previous mistakes and built in some additional protection for the borrowers.

The rough math works out that if you put a payment of an additional 13% of your monthly Mortgage Payment to paying off Principal you generally will have a 30 year note paid off in 15 years. So the term cut it in half. If a Credit Union is willing to give you 2.75% right now instead of 5.50% under a 7 Year Arm then you have options of paying it off much sooner.

Life is full of risks and we can't predict what is going to happen in the future with Interest Rates, Stock Market, Crypto, our economy, Covid Shut Downs, MonkeyPox..... so many unknowns. Using good Realtors/Mortgage Lenders can help at least buffer some of the risk in Real Estate.

 

[Baron Winnebago]

If you look at the charts there are corrections/crashes/swings..... whatever you want to call it every 10-15 years. We learned in the Crash of 2008 when people were crushed by ARM's that were 2-5 years. They didn't have enough time for rates or comps to recover. Some of the ARMS now that are 7 years will go with a low rate like 2.75% for the first 7 years then adjust every 6 months with a Cap of 6.5%. Lenders have actually learned from some of the previous mistakes and built in some additional protection for the borrowers.

The rough math works out that if you put a payment of an additional 13% of your monthly Mortgage Payment to paying off Principal you generally will have a 30 year note paid off in 15 years. So the term cut it in half. If a Credit Union is willing to give you 2.75% right now instead of 5.50% under a 7 Year Arm then you have options of paying it off much sooner.

Life is full of risks and we can't predict what is going to happen in the future with Interest Rates, Stock Market, Crypto, our economy, Covid Shut Downs, MonkeyPox..... so many unknowns. Using good Realtors/Mortgage Lenders can help at least buffer some of the risk in Real Estate.

We got a 10-1 arm that's capped at something like a total move of 3% away from the initial rate, which seemed really reasonable

 

[Toe]

You’re in kind of a bad spot right now with the uncertainty. You would think house prices are going to come down with interest rates going up. I’ve read by 2023 they will probably be 8 percent on a 30 year loan. If you’re going to buy it would be nice to have a substantial down payment.

If the 2008 downturn is anything to go by, prices around here will probably just kinda level off for a while, and not fall much. That's my feeling of what's likely to happen, but I know that's far from a certainty - prices didn't climb as much pre-2008 as they have in the last 2.5 years.

Down payments are funny. When rates are low, there's a solid case to be made for making a minimum down payment and then investing that money you would've put down. Just gotta make sure your returns outrun the extra interest you'll pay. In a bull market that's pretty easy, but in a market like this it's another story entirely...

 

[Cash68847]

If the 2008 downturn is anything to go by, prices around here will probably just kinda level off for a while, and not fall much. That's my feeling of what's likely to happen, but I know that's far from a certainty.

Down payments are funny. When rates are low, there's a solid case to be made for making a minimum down payment and then investing that money you would've put down. Just gotta make sure your returns outrun the extra interest you'll pay. In a bull market that's pretty easy, but in a market like this it's another story entirely...

Yea it’s a weird situation. House prices also weren’t inflated in Nebraska as much in 2008 like they are now. Now the prices are just nuts for what you get.

 

[Toe]

Yea it’s a weird situation. House prices also weren’t inflated in Nebraska as much in 2008 like they are now. Now the prices are just nuts for what you get.

When I look at what I can afford right now when I'm in a personal situation where buying a house is feasible vs what the same money would've bought just a couple years ago...