I definitely think the Under in this game is the way to go. Our offense is too unreliable (penalties and inability to get short yardage when needed) to think we’ll score 4 or more TDs against a defense who’s been stout in the red zone. I also don’t have any trust we won’t have more points taken off the board from phantom calls, again. Every team moving forward is going to rely on this formula: Offense’s penalty tendencies + Raiola’s goodness < allowing the run game to get going. We’ll be facing man and stacked boxes all year because our WRs aren’t true difference makers.
I want to think our shift to more man coverage against Purdoodoo will bring the added benefit that we’ll play sound, gap control run defense against Buttgers. If we can get away with—and we should—leaving our DBs on islands and loading the box… or at least creeping our Safeties into run support, I believe we’ll have success forcing a lot of punts. If there was ever a team to say “try to beat us deep in man coverage” it’s this Buttgers team.
I see overall another low scoring game marked in penalties we’ll be screaming about, and more special teams frustrations.
Nebraska 21
Buttgers 18 (late TD and 2pt conversion)
So give me Buttgers in a back door cover and the under. Sounds like a decent parlay.