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I am in this boat.
Mahomes is 0-1 as a home dog in his career and that loss came this year vs Buffalo. I even bet Buffalo to win that game because I felt KC would be conservative and Buffalo would be extra motivated after last year (played out that way).
What is frustrating as a Chiefs fan here is the Chiefs have had the Bengals on the ropes in the last 3 games only to shit their pants and lose by 3 points. If Mahomes is healthy I would be pretty confident in the Chiefs just rebounding from that 0-3 spell. Now I don't know. Bengals are now expected to win this game. Playing with that expectation vs "nobody believes in us how dare they presell tickets to Atlanta...." is just different. Now people are doubting Mahomes... You got Bengals players saying they are going to "Burrowhead.."
Last time Mahomes had a high ankle sprain he went for 440 yards and 4 TDs the following week vs the Raiders. It was also the other ankle. This one is also "not as bad" as that one. Mahomes EPA post ankle injury vs the Jags was also good for 2nd among QBs in 2022-2023 season (Him with 2 healthy legs was #1). The Bengals are a top 5 defense and the Raiders that year were in the 20's.
I will probably bet on the Bengals because I think that's what my head says and if the Chiefs win I will gladly burn that ticket.
Eagles seem like the slam dunk this weekend. 49ers have one of the weakest SOS and usually that doesn't fair well in the playoffs. Now they also played some of the other bad SOS teams so there is a reason why that hasn't worked so far. Purdy going to Philly for his first playoff road game. I like Philly here.
I also like the under in the Eagles game.
Looking at some props tonight.
