2024-25 NCAA Tournament Bracketology/Bubble Watch

[PonyBoy]

We're 2-5 with a TBD against the bottom 7 teams in the B1G (teams behind us in the standings). 3 of the 5 losses at home; USC, Rutgers & Minnesota. 2 of the 3 are Q3 losses - Rutgers & Minnesota.

We're 5-7 against the top 10 teams in the B1G (teams ahead of us in the standings).

NIL wasn't a topic/problem when we're beating (then) ranked Pickle Smoochers or Oregon on the road. It wasn't a topic/problem beating (then) ranked UCLA or Illinois at home. We have more T25 wins this season than any other season in our (poor) history.

But now that we choked down the stretch, it's becoming a hot topic/problem.

 

[PonyBoy]

 

[Stan Raymond]

We're 2-5 with a TBD against the bottom 7 teams in the B1G (teams behind us in the standings). 3 of the 5 losses at home; USC, Rutgers & Minnesota. 2 of the 3 are Q3 losses - Rutgers & Minnesota.

We're 5-7 against the top 10 teams in the B1G (teams ahead of us in the standings).

NIL wasn't a topic/problem when we're beating (then) ranked Pickle Smoochers or Oregon on the road. It wasn't a topic/problem beating (then) ranked UCLA or Illinois at home. We have more T25 wins this season than any other season in our (poor) history.

But now that we choked down the stretch, it's becoming a hot topic/problem.

Agreed. Our NIL for basketball isn't getting us Cooper Flagg or Johni Broome, but it is good enough to yield a very competitive team that should easily make the NCAA tournament. As you pointed out we aren't losing to great talented teams on the road, we are losing to the bottom of the conference often at home.

Sure better talent would help, and it would be easier to get with more NIL funds, but a lot of our losses have nothing to do with talent. We have enough talent to make the NCAA tournament and even be a top 4 team in the conference. If we want to win a conference title or make the Sweet 16, then yeah we need to up our NIL game, but that money comes a lot easier with some wins. Win a game in the NCAA tournament and basketball NIL will be at an all time high.

 

[DrinkItIn]

Agreed. Our NIL for basketball isn't getting us Cooper Flagg or Johni Broome, but it is good enough to yield a very competitive team that should easily make the NCAA tournament. As you pointed out we aren't losing to great talented teams on the road, we are losing to the bottom of the conference often at home.

Sure better talent would help, and it would be easier to get with more NIL funds, but a lot of our losses have nothing to do with talent. We have enough talent to make the NCAA tournament and even be a top 4 team in the conference. If we want to win a conference title or make the Sweet 16, then yeah we need to up our NIL game, but that money comes a lot easier with some wins. Win a game in the NCAA tournament and basketball NIL will be at an all time high.

It’s a fun discussion, and I mostly agree with what you guys are saying. NIL and resources won’t explain every win or loss, but over time, they probably play a big role in sustaining success. Using a few big victories or tough losses to dismiss their impact overlooks how important NIL is for building a competitive program that can survive the grind of a full Big Ten season year after year.

Take Berke’s injury, for example. Nebraska was in a groove, and he had his best game of the year against Ohio State. Losing him might’ve thrown off the team’s rhythm and may have started this late-season slide. With better resources, does Nebraska have the ability to more easily replace a key contributor like that? It’s a fair question, especially when you look at other programs with stronger NIL backing who seem to have more depth to lean on when injuries hit.

At the end of the day, both things can be true—you can absolutely win big games without elite resources, but keeping that level going all season in a conference like the Big Ten? That’s probably a lot harder without them.

 

[Mustangblood]

It’s a fun discussion, and I mostly agree with what you guys are saying. NIL and resources won’t explain every win or loss, but over time, they probably play a big role in sustaining success. Using a few big victories or tough losses to dismiss their impact overlooks how important NIL is for building a competitive program that can survive the grind of a full Big Ten season year after year.

Take Berke’s injury, for example. Nebraska was in a groove, and he had his best game of the year against Ohio State. Losing him might’ve thrown off the team’s rhythm and may have started this late-season slide. With better resources, does Nebraska have the ability to more easily replace a key contributor like that? It’s a fair question, especially when you look at other programs with stronger NIL backing who seem to have more depth to lean on when injuries hit.

At the end of the day, both things can be true—you can absolutely win big games without elite resources, but keeping that level going all season in a conference like the Big Ten? That’s probably a lot harder without them.

NIL doesn’t change the fact that griffiths was a hot transfer in the portal and we got him, but he just hasn’t panned out. Him being a contributor is exactly what we are missing to be able to absorb 2 weeks without berke and have our tournament chances survive. Getting contributors in the portal is still a crapshoot

 

[PonyBoy]

Take Berke’s injury, for example. Nebraska was in a groove, and he had his best game of the year against Ohio State. Losing him might’ve thrown off the team’s rhythm and may have started this late-season slide. With better resources, does Nebraska have the ability to more easily replace a key contributor like that? It’s a fair question, especially when you look at other programs with stronger NIL backing who seem to have more depth to lean on when injuries hit.

I think your overall take is a good one.

As someone else mentioned, goggles was suppose to be depth & it didn't pan out this season. I'm pretty sure we spent some good money to get him out of the portal too. At Rutgers he averaged 17 mpg over 32 games. This season, he's not even half of that in approximately 15 games but was expected to be equal to or greater. So, the question is - was it NIL related or someone didn't pan out in their first year? I think it's the latter.

The Berke stuff is interesting. Damn near every game before injury many people blasted him for his poor play. I still believe this team is an average PG away from being deadly. As in S16 type team. And NIL isn't the reason we don't have one. They're all over the country, across all conferences.

 

[rr55]

A lot of people don't want to hear this, but by Nebrasketball standards, this has been an excellent 2 seasons.

The last time we were in the tournament two years in a row Daniel Nee ran the show.

Aside from last year, we've had 1 appearance in 25 seasons.

Yes. It's an incredibly good sign we're in the conversation two years in a row.


I get why people were frustrated because we were just battling for seeding 2-3 weeks ago, totally understandable. But if you zoom out this is the best b[ack to back years we've had since Clinton was fondling young tramps in the White House.

I just can't get over how much I disagree with this kind of thinking. Like you said, 2-3 weeks ago we were playing for seeding, and now we are out of the tournament. I can't classify that as a good season. I just have a hard time being told I should be satisfied that we are in the first four out, just because all the other teams before this were ass. This team should be judged on its own, which is a failure from where it sat 2-3 weeks ago.

 

[RedDeanRedemption]

Maximum pain would be winning the next 2 then blowing a lead in the 2nd round and ending up First Four out due to some bid stealing in the other conference tournaments.

 

[Mustangblood]

I think your overall take is a good one.

As someone else mentioned, goggles was suppose to be depth & it didn't pan out this season. I'm pretty sure we spent some good money to get him out of the portal too. At Rutgers he averaged 17 mpg over 32 games. This season, he's not even half of that in approximately 15 games but was expected to be equal to or greater. So, the question is - was it NIL related or someone didn't pan out in their first year? I think it's the latter.

The Berke stuff is interesting. Damn near every game before injury many people blasted him for his poor play. I still believe this team is an average PG away from being deadly. As in S16 type team. And NIL isn't the reason we don't have one. They're all over the country, across all conferences.

I know it’s revisionist history, but it really sucks to think if we don’t spend that money on goggles and really open up the checkbook and get Chucky how good this team would be.

 

[PonyBoy]

I know it’s revisionist history, but it really sucks to think if we don’t spend that money on goggles and really open up the checkbook and get Chucky how good this team would be.

Hep was offered a very large bag to play for us.

IMO, it was a combination of things that led him to Louisville. (1) Siva on the Ville staff was a huge factor, (2) Losing 2 close friends, (3) Still burning for what happened with Fred and Matt while he was in high school & (4) Direction from his agent. The day before, or day of, he went in to the portal, a board member here tied in with Chucky and his family texted me "Watch out for Louisville."...

....IMO, in other words, it was a done deal prior to announcing for the portal.

 

[SlumpBuster]

Pure speculation

I don't think so.

 

[Ironwardog]

We’ve discussed NIL a lot here lately, and myself included on this, we have assumed we only have $2-$2.5 mil AVAILABLE NIL funds. I personally blamed our lack of consistency of winning. I’ve never asked these questions….
Does Fred have a large input on decisions of how much to spend on players the way Rhule does?
Do we actually have more NIL available to Fred than what we spent this year? Or did 1890 blow most of their load on football and they only had the $2 million available this year?

 

[PonyBoy]

I don't think so.

Like I said, pure speculation. Thanks for proving it!

Hep was offered more than $750K by us. Not only that, baseball had a $700K+ offer to a single portal player before this, so Robin can pound sand that Nebraska can't pay that. Castner assured the funds are available for Hep.

 

[PonyBoy]

We’ve discussed NIL a lot here lately, and myself included on this, we have assumed we only have $2-$2.5 mil AVAILABLE NIL funds. I personally blamed our lack of consistency of winning. I’ve never asked these questions….
Does Fred have a large input on decisions of how much to spend on players the way Rhule does?
Do we actually have more NIL available to Fred than what we spent this year? Or did 1890 blow most of their load on football and they only had the $2 million available this year?

Here's what I was told, and shared in private with another board member...

- Fred has a set budget.
- Current team is well over the budget, close to 40% over.
- Fred has never been turned down by 1890.

(Edited to remove numbers publicly)

 

[SlumpBuster]

Like I said, pure speculation. Thanks for proving it!

Hep was offered more than $750K by us. Not only that, baseball had a $700K+ offer to a single portal player before this, so Robin can pound sand that Nebraska can't pay that. Castner assured the funds are available for Hep.

If you say so.

Dean and Mongo might be pure trash, but Robin is excellent and definitely not someone to speak about something he doesn't know.

 

[PonyBoy]

If you say so.

Dean might be pure trash, but Robin is excellent and definitely not someone to speak about something he doesn't know.

Robin isn't telling the whole story, and he knows it. I laid it out in my next post, right above your follow-up.

 

[SlumpBuster]

Robin isn't telling the whole story, and he knows it. I laid it out in my next post, right above your follow-up.

So is it not your belief that we are lagging compared to the rest of the B1G?

 

[PonyBoy]

So is it not your opinion that we are lagging compared to the rest of the B1G?

I'd need to see the actual data from other programs to have an opinion. I've been able to confirm our number from multiple people, in & around the situation, from a lot of angles but actual payroll.

I'm aware of what we're spending on this current roster. I'm also aware of additional resources (ex: Hep) on top of our total spent that was available, but not used...

...and I'll repeat my opinion, NIL isn't the reason we choked the last 3-3.5 weeks. Explained below...

Post in thread '2024-25 NCAA Tournament Bracketology/Bubble Watch'

Friday at 4:08 PM

We're 2-5 with a TBD against the bottom 7 teams in the B1G (teams behind us in the standings). 3 of the 5 losses at home; USC, Rutgers & Minnesota. 2 of the 3 are Q3 losses - Rutgers & Minnesota.

We're 5-7 against the top 10 teams in the B1G (teams ahead of us in the standings).

NIL wasn't a topic/problem when we're beating (then) ranked Pickle Smoochers or Oregon on the road. It wasn't a topic/problem beating (then) ranked UCLA or Illinois at home. We have more T25 wins this season than any other season in our (poor) history.

But now that we choked down the stretch, it's becoming a hot...

• PonyBoy

• 

 

[SlumpBuster]

...and I'll repeat my opinion, NIL isn't the reason we choked the last 3-3.5 weeks. Explained below...

I don't disagree with that and that is definitely not the point I'm trying to make. My point is more that I don't believe that we're competitive in basketball for NIL and we overachieved early in the season and underachieved later in the season to equal out to a team that's on the bubble which is at least commensurate with the level of resources.

 

[PonyBoy]

I don't disagree with that and that is definitely not the point I'm trying to make. My point is more that I don't believe that we're competitive in basketball for NIL and we overachieved early in the season and underachieved later in the season to equal out to a team that's on the bubble which is at least commensurate with the level of resources.

That's a valid opinion, and I can respect it.

I do disagree with it. It wasn't "early in the season" though. 71% of our season was complete (game 22 of 31) when we were in all brackets by the experts. And it continued (thru games 23-29/30) then dropped after the Minnesota game, then officially put us on the outside looking in after the Ohio State loss.

That's not overachieving early, it's consistently good enough for us to dance only to choke it away in the last 3-5 games.