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2023 Off Season Thread

FBS head coaches talk importance of data in talent evaluation​

With information at an all-time high, college staffs are using data more than ever in recruiting​

MIKE ROACH60 minsVIP0


Recruiting in the information age means that data is playing a larger role in talent evaluation. With more information becoming available on high school athletes through combines and sports like track and field, it plays a central role in 247Sports’ rankings and evaluations.
The national scouting team at 247Sports culls through pages of data looking for verified measurements, multi-sport participation and other athletic metrics that help in the scouting of a prospect.
National scouting analyst Gabe Brooks sees a lot of value in data as a tool in putting together the puzzle of how a recruit might pan out.
"In terms of using data in evaluation, I think of it as trying to quantify the unquantifiable," Brooks said. "Putting a number value such as a 247Sports rating or a star grade on a player is anathema to the inherent nuance involved in evaluating football players. The longer you have evaluated, the more you realize how blurry the lines get in most cases when stacking player versus player. That's why the data is so important. Pro baseball and now basketball have become extremely data-oriented, especially considering the helpfulness of the much larger sample sizes, whether 700 plate appearances across a 162-game season, or 1,000-plus shot attempts across an 82-game season. By comparison, football at all levels sees smaller sample sizes, so that's where the importance of multi-sport participation and layered on-field experience — playing both ways or all three phases, for example — become differentiators in many cases."
That data correlates directly to the NFL Draft. As we study draft classes, we are able to see what the NFL values and what those players looked like in high school.
"We are ultimately graded by NFL Draft results, so we try to apply what we see in those results to the 247Sports rankings," Brooks said. "That's why your eyes probably glaze over occasionally at another mention of multi-sport participation, but the reality is almost every first-rounder in the last few drafts played another sport in addition to football. What your eyes tell you is valuable, from an eval standpoint, but verified measurements, track and field numbers, basketball context, and all the other tangential measures of physical and athletic potential are extremely valuable when attempting to quantify the unquantifiable."
You may be asking yourself why we would spend time projecting players to the NFL when they haven’t played a snap of college football. The easiest answer is that colleges are doing the same to an extent.
I spoke with several FBS head coaches during July’s THSCA Coaching Convention in Texas. The event brought over 16,000 high school coaches to Houston along with a prestigious list of speakers.


Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule has always been big on analytics. His NFL stint as head coach of the Carolina Panthers gave him an even better idea of what an NFL player looks like.
"If you're at the NFL, you're looking at all those things, right? What's his height, weight, speed? How thick is he? Does he meet our standards? And then what's his arm length? So I think, you know, you kind of have a lot of those things come along," Rhule said. "I think I think that's why we're trying to make new rules. And so, if we love the kid and he's got five stars and he's highly recruited, we're gonna stand up there and recruit him up against everybody, you know, what are the kids unknown, we're gonna try to get him as well."

Rhule was almost forced to rely on analytics in his college coaching career. With stops at Temple and Baylor, Rhule was going against much bigger programs with access to higher-end talent.
“It's just humility to recognize that we don't think we're good enough to go watch a film and say, ‘hey, I think this guy's this,” Rhule said. “We just try to make sure that if we have the film, and we have the metrics, that we were hoping with the metrics say that the guy has a chance to be developed and we bet on our staff, right? And so, if you're at Temple, and you've got to play Penn State, we’ve got to look at everything. So how did we end up catching up and beating Penn State one year? Well, because we follow this formula of like, hey, let's better ourselves as teachers as coaches. Let's get guys who are big and fast and can run and don't need to do all these things, but let's coach them.”
“So, you know, we just we just said we're not going to be able to out recruit them off of these guys. So, let's go find the guys who run just as fast as theirs,” Rhule said. “They have a coaching staff that's committed to coaching them and developing them and doesn't work out all the time. But I just think it's humility to say that like, you know what, fast is fast, big is big. But make no mistake, sometimes we find a player that we love his tape, and we fall in love with them, and we take them. It just takes courage to be sitting in camp two weeks ago and see a kid from the camp run a 4.4 and broad jump 10-5 and be really smart and have no other FBS offers and have no power five offers and be like, ‘You know what, we’re going to offer them anyway, because we trust ourselves.”

Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire learned the value of analytics under Rhule. The former high school coach joined Rhule’s initial staff at Baylor and saw the plan at work. Under Rhule, Baylor won the Big 12 in 2021 and played in the Sugar bowl on the strength of a roster full of players with obvious traits that needed to be developed. McGuire carried that philosophy over to Texas Tech.
“We're a developmental program,” McGuire said. “So we always want to miss, if we're going to miss, on length and speed. We want multi-sport athletes. We're always looking to see. I don't know, if we have a kid in this class that did play a second sport. You know, I can't think of one. I mean, you are always looking for these traits, and so they have to put out some good tape. But we're always looking at what the kid's floor is and what his ceiling is. And there's some kids that are coming out of high school, but they've already hit their ceiling. And if they've already hit their ceiling, man, they have to jump off tape. It's got to be a no brainer.​

Phil Snow used to say all the time, if that's just it, it's going to be an exception, because this is a sport that you've got to continue to grow these players in develop them. If they've already hit their ceiling, and that's what you're gonna get, that better be worth what you're going to get whenever you recruit them and get them on your campus. So, we're always going to be looking for length, you're looking for speed, you're looking for multi-sport athletes. One of the things we always ask an offensive lineman is can you dunk? Yeah, OK, send us a video. You're probably gonna get looked at a little bit more at Texas Tech. So, we're always looking for that those numbers and the verified things that we can get from anywhere, whether it be track or whether it be any of the combines.”

North Texas head coach Eric Morris has a ton of experience for a man of 37 years of age. He served as a graduate assistant at Houston before stops at Washington State under Mike Leach and Texas Tech under Kliff Kingsbury. Morris then accepted the head coaching position at Incarnate Word before returning to Washington State as offensive coordinator before the Mean Green hired him this past offseason. Each program he’s been at has been a David to an in-state Goliath, and Morris knows the importance of data in finding any edge in talent acquisition.​

“We love to dig into the data and I think that's why camps are so important to us,” Morris said. “I love to see kids run with my own eyes and get a watch on them. You know, I'm a big five-ten-five guy. I think it's a great evaluation about the way a guy can change direction and we look at that just as much as we do a forty time. But yeah, analytics, I think are great. You know, I don't think you can just hang your hat on it, you’ve got to find some of those diamond in the rough kids that are just good, tough football players.”

Morris went on to talk about the importance of multi-sport participation. Arm measurements and broad jumps are just one piece of data collection. Prospects who participate in multiple sports are highly coveted by college programs.
“I love kids that play multiple sports. That's my biggest thing,” Morris said. “I don't care what position you play in. It's a little bit harder, I think for offensive linemen and defensive lineman, but I love guys that are throwers in track that have a great shot or disc. Obviously, you know, everybody wants to look at the track aspect of it, but I think playing basketball or baseball just really increases these guys hand eye coordination. I mean, something again, I tell people all the time, you know, recruiting, you know, Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, Cam Ward, who's now for Washington State, are all great quarterbacks.

“All of them were great at other things. I mean, Patrick was All-State football, basketball, baseball. Cam Ward was the all-time leading scorer for basketball in West Columbia history. Baker Mayfield was one of the best second baseman I've ever seen in my life. Case Keenum could play all three of them and is a scratch golfer now. So yeah, I think all those things are important. I love these guys that don't specialize and try to just play one sport their whole entire life.”

If you think this approach is only implemented in non-blue blood programs as a sort of “Moneyball” approach, youo’d be mistaken. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian echoed the importance of verified athleticism and multi-sport participation.
“I love it,” Sarkisian said. “Because that tells me about the competitive nature of the young man, right, that he plays multiple sports, that he runs track, that he plays baseball, that he plays basketball that he does those things. I love that. The second is yeah, you can verify some things, you know. Just because you run fast in track doesn't make you a great football player. But if you're a great football player, and you run fast in track, that's a great component for us. So, we do look at all those things and the verified measurables are huge for us as well. I mean, we care about all those things. We care about hand size, arm length, you know wingspan, those things matter in football too for us.”
In talking with coaches across the country, it’s clear that going purely off film isn’t going to do the job anymore. College programs are in an arms race to hire bigger support staffs to identify these metrics and find players. Some staffs even have dedicated analytics assistants to look at each aspect of their program through the numbers.
“I think a lot of people are getting more data-driven across the across the world,” Rhule said. “We've been doing it that way for a while, you know, we just keep trying to invent new things.”

 

comedy central GIF by Workaholics
 


With the summer freshmen arrivals here, all the seats in Terrance Knighton's defensive line room are now filled. A coach kind of likes seeing that.

He also wants that room to be a stress-free environment where players can say what's on their mind. And to also trust the coach has in mind what's best for them when he gives it to them straight.

"When a guy trusts you and believes in you and knows you really care about them, they'll run through a wall for you," Knighton said Tuesday night during a 'Sports Nightly' radio appearance. "We do as much as we can off the field as we do on the field, so that on the field, it's not, 'Hey, Coach Knighton is yelling at me.' It's, 'Hey, he's teaching.'"

Knighton remembers a line from a coach of his: It's a teach up not a beat up.

"So make sure guys hear the message and not hear the volume at times."


Knighton offered some brief thoughts on most of the guys on his room. Of course, it's an upbeat time of year with camp just around the corner with most of the comments reflecting that positivity.

Ty Robinson is "back in the mix of things" and hasn't been held back in summer workouts after missing the spring rehabbing.

"He's played the most football in the room so we're expecting big things out of him. He's a guy who wants to be a pro. So I hold him to that standard." Knighton is impressed how well he moves for such a big man.

– Building off a strong spring, Nash Hutmacher has "dropped some weight" and "doesn't want to just be a 2-gap guy, wants to get out there on third downs.'" Knighton can relate to those days when he was a 325-pound player trying to get on their on the money down like Nash is wanting to do.

Hutmacher definitely led in the spring.

"It's a reason why in the spring young guys were able to develop so quickly because of guys like Nash who said, 'Hey, watch how I prepare, this is how I'm going to do it.' It's become contagious in the room with his work ethic and how he prepares.'"

– One of the most noteworthy comments was about Ru'Quan Buckley, who is entering his third year but has only played in one game. But he's got some new life, it seems. Knighton really likes what he's about. He said you have to tell him something only once.

"His body is transformed. He's in great shape. The guys respect him in the room. The guys respect him on the team and he's kind of the like the enforcer of the D-line. When Ty and and Nash are getting after guys, they kind of have Ru' as security. ... He's probably a guy that I love coaching the most in the room because whatever Coach Rhule says, whatever Coach White says, whatever I say ... he's locked in ... He's a guy that's trying to show he can make a push to impact the defense this year."

Blaise Gunnerson is his own worst critic. Knighton said at times he even has to pull him back and get a deep breath because Gunnerson has such high standards for himself.

"Once he gets into his comfort zone as a leader and a player, he's going to make a lot of plays for us."

Brodie Tagaloa and A.J. Rollins showed immediately they had a knack for being around the ball and being physical after their move to defense.

"You can coach the rest ... We have a deep room now and a lot of young guys that can come in and play so it will be interesting to see how it all falls through."

Elijah Jeudy is a transfer from Texas A&M trying to get into the mix too. A lot of natural ability there, Knighton thinks, as he adjusted to a slightly different alignment.

Jeudy likes the family atmosphere here and just added to his family with a son. There's some anxiety removed with his son healthy and here. "He has a lot of ability. Can effect the quarterback on third down. Quick for a big guy. He's going to be a guy that makes a lot of plays for how dynamic he is."

– Newcomer Kai Wallin is a self-motivated guy, Knighton said, who has added 25 to 30 pounds since he got here. "So he'll be a different looking guy in camp."

Princewill Umanmielen and Cameron Lenhardt are freshmen who showed in the spring they could play right away. Sua Lefotu is another young guy trying to impress.

Knighton had no predictions about who's playing. He just wants them "to be ready to go practice 1." He thought Umanmielen and Lenhardt were aided a lot by going through spring ball and it gives a jump with knowing what to expect physically. But he said all the young guys are doing a good job getting used to things here.

– Time management is one of the most important things for a young guy, Knighton said.

To that end, "Our staff does a good job of helping those guys come in right away and that's why Coach Rhule's programs have always been able to play young guys."

Jason Maciejczak and Mason Goldman are 2023 recruits who are on the D-line after also having some O-line potential as recruits. Riley Van Poppel is here too. A new player many fans are eager to see. Vincent Carroll-Jackson is on the scene as well.

Knighton likes seeing all the seats taken and praised Robinson and Hutmacher for talking to those young guys in the winter and spring about what to do to be ready.

"Having a young room, two or three of those guys are going to have to come in and be an impactful player for us. So I'm looking forward to seeing the maturation of all of them."

– Goldman was on the O-line at first, going through some agility drills. "Me and Coach Rhule looked at each other and said, 'OK, he's one of ours.'"

– Jacob Herbek is a walk-on who could help too. "One thing I know about Herbo is I know he's going to be exactly where he's going to be."

New walk-on James Williams from Cockeye Central is a tall, long guy Knighton is interested in seeing too. The coach told Herbek to kind of take him under his wing and thinks he good grow like Wallin. Another walk-on Leslie Black has also put on about 25 pounds in like a month since arriving.

He thinks the young guys are understanding the urgency required.

– Knighton isn't packed to move into the dorms with players yet for camp but he likes the idea of it.

As an NFL guy he actually got to stay in hotels and not dorms. But he thinks the camaraderie of being there with the players during August will be important.

"At the end of the day with our players out there battling, who are we to say that we should be going home every night while they're in dorms and can't be around family. ... So we're all in this together. That's one thing we make sure we always do is humble ourselves just as much as the players have to humble themselves every day."
 

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