2023 Fall Camp Thread | Page 43 | The Platinum Board

2023 Fall Camp Thread

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2023 Fall Camp Thread

This year is gonna be rough I have a feeling
This offseason I was quietly thinking they could surprise and go 7-5 or 8-4 (though I never budged from my 6-6 prediction)...

But the first two weeks of fall camp have had a lot of reality set in (in my observation). I think the team is talent wise a 5-7 or maybe 6-6 team. Assuming we play to our talent that's where we'll finish. If we go 7-5 then that is a +1 differential for the coaches. Which is impressive when you can get that.

Frost consistently ran a -2 W/L differential IMHO. 2019 was a -3 W/L differential in my view.

Honestly it would actually be refreshing to just finish at our talent level for once. It's been a long long time.
 
This offseason I was quietly thinking they could surprise and go 7-5 or 8-4 (though I never budged from my 6-6 prediction)...

But the first two weeks of fall camp have had a lot of reality set in (in my observation). I think the team is talent wise a 5-7 or maybe 6-6 team. Assuming we play to our talent that's where we'll finish. If we go 7-5 then that is a +1 differential for the coaches. Which is impressive when you can get that.

Frost consistently ran a -2 W/L differential IMHO. 2019 was a -3 W/L differential in my view.

Honestly it would actually be refreshing to just finish at our talent level for once. It's been a long long time.
Feel like 5 wins is pushing it this year. A 3-4 win team in the nicest way.

Qb - more turnover prone than Martinez
Rb - fumble machines and largely suck
WR - young and inexperienced
OL - sucky. Maybe less sucky this year?
TE - inexperienced but also the best position group?

That’s just offense and nothing is good
 
Qb - more turnover prone than Martinez
This isn't true.
2AM had 42 turnovers in his first three years. (18, 12, 12)
Jeff Sims has 31 in his first three years (18, 9, 4)
And if you'll notice, most of Sims' came as a freshman. He has gotten better every year to the point he only had four as a junior, three INTs and one lost fumble. He gets a bad wrap as turnover prone mostly due to his freshman season. If he turns the ball over the same rate he did last year, we'll be fine.
 
Man, the tone really shifted today.

Seems like the board has been pretty positive and optimistic.
Them Betts quits and the defense dominates a scrimmage and suddenly it's all doom and gloom around here.

You Got This Hang In There GIF by Mochimochiland
 
Man, the tone really shifted today.

Seems like the board has been pretty positive and optimistic.
Them Betts quits and the defense dominates a scrimmage and suddenly it's all doom and gloom around here.

You Got This Hang In There GIF by Mochimochiland
I mean, at this point, it's undeniable we should've hired #2ndChoice.
 
Man, the tone really shifted today.

Seems like the board has been pretty positive and optimistic.
Them Betts quits and the defense dominates a scrimmage and suddenly it's all doom and gloom around here.

You Got This Hang In There GIF by Mochimochiland
I've downgraded my outlook from 10 wins to 9. Things are getting dire in the squid household.
 
Man, the tone really shifted today.

Seems like the board has been pretty positive and optimistic.
Them Betts quits and the defense dominates a scrimmage and suddenly it's all doom and gloom around here.

You Got This Hang In There GIF by Mochimochiland
I started downgrading before the Betts thing actually. Betts by himself doesn't affect my W/L prediction.

I started downgrading just by watching the post practice interviews/reading what I can/ reading what tea leaves are out there.

I just think Rhule is realizing there's more shit to root out in this program culture than maybe he saw in the spring. My sense is this is more of a roll your sleeves up/elbows deep in shit job than maybe Rhule optimistically hoped in March or April.

We are the fuckin All Bus team. Probably looked good in the spring but all our panty waist head cases come out when the going gets tough (fall camp). Don't get me wrong, Rhule ain't afraid of a rebuild - I just think he was hoping this might be easier than it will be. But we are the All Bus team, so looks can be deceiving.
 
I started downgrading before the Betts thing actually. Betts by himself doesn't affect my W/L prediction.

I started downgrading just by watching the post practice interviews/reading what I can/ reading what tea leaves are out there.

I just think Rhule is realizing there's more shit to root out in this program culture than maybe he saw in the spring. My sense is this is more of a roll your sleeves up/elbows deep in shit job than maybe Rhule optimistically hoped in March or April.

We are the fuckin All Bus team. Probably looked good in the spring but all our panty waist head cases come out when the going gets tough (fall camp). Don't get me wrong, Rhule ain't afraid of a rebuild - I just think he was hoping this might be easier than it will be. But we are the All Bus team, so looks can be deceiving.
Year 3
 
I started downgrading before the Betts thing actually. Betts by himself doesn't affect my W/L prediction.

I started downgrading just by watching the post practice interviews/reading what I can/ reading what tea leaves are out there.

I just think Rhule is realizing there's more shit to root out in this program culture than maybe he saw in the spring. My sense is this is more of a roll your sleeves up/elbows deep in shit job than maybe Rhule optimistically hoped in March or April.

We are the fuckin All Bus team. Probably looked good in the spring but all our panty waist head cases come out when the going gets tough (fall camp). Don't get me wrong, Rhule ain't afraid of a rebuild - I just think he was hoping this might be easier than it will be. But we are the All Bus team, so looks can be deceiving.


You might be right but you’re reading waaaayyy too much into post practice comments. Rhule probably has no idea how good/bad the teams going to be at this point of fall camp.
 
Coaches have a pretty good idea on floor and ceiling

I know I’ve had a multiple coaches say they’ve had teams they thought were dog shit that won championships and teams they thought were great that tanked, but I’m sure you’re right in the typical years.
 
First, it’s common that defenses dominate in early August practices. Defense can run simple stuff. Read and react. The offense is still figuring out its timing, precision, etc. My gut reaction to hearing Rhule yesterday complain about the offense was “oh shit, here we go.” But it’s probably him working to create a sense of urgency and not get down on themselves after the resignation by ZB and a bad practice. I also think this means we can’t overestimate how the defense is playing and how it translates to week 1.

Second, I do think expectations need to be curbed. I agree with @HerbRedman in his assessment of the talent at a macro level. We’re borderline bowl eligible. We’ve spent a bunch of years in a row not developing players. They came in as good as they were going to be. In some cases they came in the best they were going to be. The maturation of our talent is below Minny, lowa, Wiscy, etc. and that is more important than how many stars they had in HS.

I think what this all means is we’re going to be in close games this year many that will result in losses. Perhaps the difference this year is that our close games are going to be because we’re just not talented enough, yet, rather than we shot ourselves in the foot at the worst time. If we stay strong throughout we will get someone. We will beat either Wiscy or lowa while losing to Purdue or Maryland.
 
First, it’s common that defenses dominate in early August practices. Defense can run simple stuff. Read and react. The offense is still figuring out its timing, precision, etc. My gut reaction to hearing Rhule yesterday complain about the offense was “oh shit, here we go.” But it’s probably him working to create a sense of urgency and not get down on themselves after the resignation by ZB and a bad practice. I also think this means we can’t overestimate how the defense is playing and how it translates to week 1.

Second, I do think expectations need to be curbed. I agree with @HerbRedman in his assessment of the talent at a macro level. We’re borderline bowl eligible. We’ve spent a bunch of years in a row not developing players. They came in as good as they were going to be. In some cases they came in the best they were going to be. The maturation of our talent is below Minny, lowa, Wiscy, etc. and that is more important than how many stars they had in HS.

I think what this all means is we’re going to be in close games this year many that will result in losses. Perhaps the difference this year is that our close games are going to be because we’re just not talented enough, yet, rather than we shot ourselves in the foot at the worst time. If we stay strong throughout we will get someone. We will beat either Wiscy or lowa while losing to Purdue or Maryland.
Great assessment. Thanks
 
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