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Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread
- Thread starter That SOB Van Owen
- Start date
Hey honey - we can retire next week if the packers, lions, Seahawks, and bucs all win. If any of them lose we both have to work another 35 years
What is the stock to buy for 2026 when Elon takes STARLINK public?
I don’t think we have any members of congress on here to give you tips - good luck
Nancy Pelosi is not a tPB member?
Starlink, Obvious Lee. That operation just prints money and they have the potential to be seriously disruptive to today's cellular carriers. I mean BIGLY disruptive.
Take it a step further…the NBA, and probably other leagues, is pretty widely known to be crooked. I cannot fathom putting your 401k money on a pro basketball game.
$ASTS superior to starlink. Already publicly traded.
They’re certainly on sale. Down 50% from their YTD high.
What's up LHR! Here's quick highlights on why I'm still bullish on this company.
This is getting signed today. Golden Dome needs constant data connectivity.
Proposed defense bill would fund Golden Dome, next-gen fighters
The proposed NDAA would authorize $900.6 billion in discretionary defense spending in fiscal 2026, an $8 billion increase over DOD's budget request.
www.defensenews.com
War drones. Swarms of them. Anduril. Palantir. That whole thing. All need constant connectivity. Starlink? Needs a stupid looking terminal pointed at the sky. ASTS can connect to regular devices with no terminals needed. There's all kinds of government contracts they'll be getting.
Company made $14 mil revenue last quarter, but the market cap is $24B! Shit vaporware co? No. Look at this launch/service timeline. They're going to finally begin service next year. They've partnered with enough MNOs to have 3 billion potential customers. They have 50/50 revenue split agreements for MNOs to use their network.
Verizon or AT&T will probably add this to your standard everything plans. You probably won't even notice if they add an extra $1 or 2 to your monthly bill. You can do some quick conservative math on monthly revenue if one billion customers pay them $0.50/mo. $500M/mo in cash. It only costs them $40-60M per satellite and they only need 126 of them to cover the earth in juicy juicy service. Cheap to maintain. Imagine. Little African kids in the middle of nowhere all glued to their iPads. That's what's possible.
Satellites. ASTS satellites are MASSIVE (and look like waffles) SPACE WAFFLES. Starlink sats are tiny and sad. Besides being naturally more intimidating, the big satellites have a lot of patented tech (3000 plus pats.) that other company's haven't matched yet. Nobody else can figure out how to do what ASTS is doing. Starlink can do peak speeds of 17 mbps direct to cell, tiny numbers tiny sats. Can barely send a text. ASTS up to 120 mbps and growing.
tl;dr
Full port 1/28 ASTS Calls
Retire early
Sounds like the Palantir marketing plan (get government contracts, PROFIT).What's up LHR! Here's quick highlights on why I'm still bullish on this company.
View attachment 64200
This is getting signed today. Golden Dome needs constant data connectivity.
Proposed defense bill would fund Golden Dome, next-gen fighters
The proposed NDAA would authorize $900.6 billion in discretionary defense spending in fiscal 2026, an $8 billion increase over DOD's budget request.
War drones. Swarms of them. Anduril. Palantir. That whole thing. All need constant connectivity. Starlink? Needs a stupid looking terminal pointed at the sky. ASTS can connect to regular devices with no terminals needed. There's all kinds of government contracts they'll be getting.
Company made $14 mil revenue last quarter, but the market cap is $24B! Shit vaporware co? No. Look at this launch/service timeline. They're going to finally begin service next year. They've partnered with enough MNOs to have 3 billion potential customers. They have 50/50 revenue split agreements for MNOs to use their network.
View attachment 64202
Verizon or AT&T will probably add this to your standard everything plans. You probably won't even notice if they add an extra $1 or 2 to your monthly bill. You can do some quick conservative math on monthly revenue if one billion customers pay them $0.50/mo. $500M/mo in cash. It only costs them $40-60M per satellite and they only need 126 of them to cover the earth in juicy juicy service. Cheap to maintain. Imagine. Little African kids in the middle of nowhere all glued to their iPads. That's what's possible.
Satellites. ASTS satellites are MASSIVE (and look like waffles) SPACE WAFFLES. Starlink sats are tiny and sad. Besides being naturally more intimidating, the big satellites have a lot of patented tech (3000 plus pats.) that other company's haven't matched yet. Nobody else can figure out how to do what ASTS is doing. Starlink can do peak speeds of 17 mbps direct to cell, tiny numbers tiny sats. Can barely send a text. ASTS up to 120 mbps and growing.View attachment 64205
tl;dr
Full port 1/28 ASTS Calls
Retire early
IN!
I forgot to mention that I’ve been edited for 14 years.
Congrats! Hope you get to do all the stuff you worked for!
For the dumb dumbs. Should I put my poor money into this and eventually be not so poor?What's up LHR! Here's quick highlights on why I'm still bullish on this company.
View attachment 64200
This is getting signed today. Golden Dome needs constant data connectivity.
Proposed defense bill would fund Golden Dome, next-gen fighters
The proposed NDAA would authorize $900.6 billion in discretionary defense spending in fiscal 2026, an $8 billion increase over DOD's budget request.
War drones. Swarms of them. Anduril. Palantir. That whole thing. All need constant connectivity. Starlink? Needs a stupid looking terminal pointed at the sky. ASTS can connect to regular devices with no terminals needed. There's all kinds of government contracts they'll be getting.
Company made $14 mil revenue last quarter, but the market cap is $24B! Shit vaporware co? No. Look at this launch/service timeline. They're going to finally begin service next year. They've partnered with enough MNOs to have 3 billion potential customers. They have 50/50 revenue split agreements for MNOs to use their network.
View attachment 64202
Verizon or AT&T will probably add this to your standard everything plans. You probably won't even notice if they add an extra $1 or 2 to your monthly bill. You can do some quick conservative math on monthly revenue if one billion customers pay them $0.50/mo. $500M/mo in cash. It only costs them $40-60M per satellite and they only need 126 of them to cover the earth in juicy juicy service. Cheap to maintain. Imagine. Little African kids in the middle of nowhere all glued to their iPads. That's what's possible.
Satellites. ASTS satellites are MASSIVE (and look like waffles) SPACE WAFFLES. Starlink sats are tiny and sad. Besides being naturally more intimidating, the big satellites have a lot of patented tech (3000 plus pats.) that other company's haven't matched yet. Nobody else can figure out how to do what ASTS is doing. Starlink can do peak speeds of 17 mbps direct to cell, tiny numbers tiny sats. Can barely send a text. ASTS up to 120 mbps and growing.View attachment 64205
tl;dr
Full port 1/28 ASTS Calls
Retire early
Google seems to think so. It is their largest stock holding.
I have been following this company for a few years now back when it was $2/share. I strongly believe in them. There are a couple of folks that are very dedicated to reporting on developments and are very knowledgeable on the technical aspects. This guy has been a good source of information from the beginning.
Another good source of info. It's old. You'll see them list Verizon as being opposed to the company. At some point that changed and they are now very friendly and will be using ASTS network for worldwide wireless coverage.
Their price target has been $500. Seemed delusional a few years ago. Now not so much.
AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) Research Report by Transhumanica
AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) investment opportunity analysis by Transhumanica Research: independent in-depth report with 250+ references and a configurable valuation model.
transhumanica.com
Long post:
I've probably made an enormous mistake getting into a bio-tech company.
Sellas Life Sciences $SLS. They have two drugs aimed at treating Acute Myeloid Leukemia.
As you know bio-tech bleeds money, dilutes, and fucks holders with warrants for years until they have a successful drug or go under. Luckily they are at the end of the road. They are currently in a phase 3 trial (step before FDA approval) that should have ended by now if you look at best available data. Drug is called GPS, an immunotherapy.
This trial is for patients in second remission. These patients have poor survival outcomes 6-8 months with best available therapy (BAT). BAT is toxic and provides poor quality of life. These patients are either waiting for a bone marrow transplant (best hope for prolonged survival), are ineligible for one, or have already failed one. It is a dire prognosis.
The therapy works by targeting the WT1 protein which is present naturally in the womb, but naturally disappears after birth. It is also coincidentally present in certain cancers, AML being one. It teaches the immune system to attack signs of WT1. Because WT1 protein is only found in the cancer cells, the body only attacks the bad stuff and has very few side effects or toxicity.
In their successful smaller phase 2 trial patients treated with GPS had a median survival of 21 months vs 5.4 months for patients on BAT. Patients had very few side effects.
For the phase 3 trial 126 patients have been enrolled. Half on BAT, half on GPS. Last patient in was April 2024. 100 patients had been enrolled by Nov 2023. Simply put trial success is defined by comparing median survival of BAT vs GPS. A ratio better than 8.4 months/12.6 months will be a success. As we know phase 2 data was 5.4mo/21mo. Trial will be stopped after 80 events (deaths).
An interim analysis was provided at 60 events last December. This told us that the data was analyzed and not halted for futility, the BAT mOS is not more than 13 months, and that over a year later and the final 20 events have yet to occur.
Now taking all of the variables we know, Enrollment timeline, trial design, date of 60th event, expected BAT mOS survival curve, current date without 80th event, we can ask our favorite AI (GPT or Gemini) to run some math on what GPS mOS should be to match these variables. Being smart we would ask it to calculate first with a conservative estimate based on real world survival of these patients 8 months, we would also ask it to calculate if the improbable upper limit with BAT mOS at 13 months. The AI would say that the only way for the trial to still be ongoing with BAT=8mo. is if GPS=30+ months. And worst case scenario BAT=13mo. Is if GPS=24 months. Our goal is 8ish/12ish = .636 anything less is a success. 8/30 = .266 a statistical breakthrough. And at the very worst case scenario 13/24 = .542 still a smash success doubling the previous survival time of patients. It appears that it is statistically impossible for the trial to fail. It can still technically fail for a number of weird technicalities even if the drug actually does work which would send the price crashing.
Now if you know biotech you know the big winners are huge $abvx up 1,500% YTD. $sprb $8 to $240 in two trading days. Successful trials and FDA rulings are massive de-risking catalysts and leat to enormous buyouts. That is what we're expecting. As soon as successful phase three data drops (the CEO has stated multiple times it will be done by end of year) the stock should go through a massive rerating and jump up in price. The company will be an ideal buyout target for big pharma companies with a conservative buyout target of $20/share. Sitting at $2.30 today. Again this data could drop any day now or even extend to April at the latest, but then it would be even more clear that the trial is a massive success.
Other things to know: Black Rock bought 5% of the company in October. The company has been financing itself by issuing warrants and diluting shareholders. Warrant holders have been exercising their $1.25ish strike warrants, selling the shares for $1.40-$2.00 and pocketing the difference. It appears they've been selling these shares to their buddies and institutions because institutional holdings have been increasing while the warrant exercising suppresses the stock price, allowing the big players to accumulate cheap. Technicals appear to indicate this is ending. Price is moving above the newly issued $2.00 warrants so they can keep up the game. There have also been large option buys the past few days for Jan 26, Feb 26, and Jan 27. The CEO recently skipped an event with the CEO of Pfizer a potential BO partner, meaning he's either the worst bio-tech CEO ever or maybe he is already in serious discussions with another company.
Anyway I've thrown enough into this to retire by golf season if things go well, but could also lose it in an instant. Should be fun either way! Join me if you're brave, stupid, and/or irresponsible.
I've probably made an enormous mistake getting into a bio-tech company.
Sellas Life Sciences $SLS. They have two drugs aimed at treating Acute Myeloid Leukemia.
As you know bio-tech bleeds money, dilutes, and fucks holders with warrants for years until they have a successful drug or go under. Luckily they are at the end of the road. They are currently in a phase 3 trial (step before FDA approval) that should have ended by now if you look at best available data. Drug is called GPS, an immunotherapy.
This trial is for patients in second remission. These patients have poor survival outcomes 6-8 months with best available therapy (BAT). BAT is toxic and provides poor quality of life. These patients are either waiting for a bone marrow transplant (best hope for prolonged survival), are ineligible for one, or have already failed one. It is a dire prognosis.
The therapy works by targeting the WT1 protein which is present naturally in the womb, but naturally disappears after birth. It is also coincidentally present in certain cancers, AML being one. It teaches the immune system to attack signs of WT1. Because WT1 protein is only found in the cancer cells, the body only attacks the bad stuff and has very few side effects or toxicity.
In their successful smaller phase 2 trial patients treated with GPS had a median survival of 21 months vs 5.4 months for patients on BAT. Patients had very few side effects.
For the phase 3 trial 126 patients have been enrolled. Half on BAT, half on GPS. Last patient in was April 2024. 100 patients had been enrolled by Nov 2023. Simply put trial success is defined by comparing median survival of BAT vs GPS. A ratio better than 8.4 months/12.6 months will be a success. As we know phase 2 data was 5.4mo/21mo. Trial will be stopped after 80 events (deaths).
An interim analysis was provided at 60 events last December. This told us that the data was analyzed and not halted for futility, the BAT mOS is not more than 13 months, and that over a year later and the final 20 events have yet to occur.
Now taking all of the variables we know, Enrollment timeline, trial design, date of 60th event, expected BAT mOS survival curve, current date without 80th event, we can ask our favorite AI (GPT or Gemini) to run some math on what GPS mOS should be to match these variables. Being smart we would ask it to calculate first with a conservative estimate based on real world survival of these patients 8 months, we would also ask it to calculate if the improbable upper limit with BAT mOS at 13 months. The AI would say that the only way for the trial to still be ongoing with BAT=8mo. is if GPS=30+ months. And worst case scenario BAT=13mo. Is if GPS=24 months. Our goal is 8ish/12ish = .636 anything less is a success. 8/30 = .266 a statistical breakthrough. And at the very worst case scenario 13/24 = .542 still a smash success doubling the previous survival time of patients. It appears that it is statistically impossible for the trial to fail. It can still technically fail for a number of weird technicalities even if the drug actually does work which would send the price crashing.
Now if you know biotech you know the big winners are huge $abvx up 1,500% YTD. $sprb $8 to $240 in two trading days. Successful trials and FDA rulings are massive de-risking catalysts and leat to enormous buyouts. That is what we're expecting. As soon as successful phase three data drops (the CEO has stated multiple times it will be done by end of year) the stock should go through a massive rerating and jump up in price. The company will be an ideal buyout target for big pharma companies with a conservative buyout target of $20/share. Sitting at $2.30 today. Again this data could drop any day now or even extend to April at the latest, but then it would be even more clear that the trial is a massive success.
Other things to know: Black Rock bought 5% of the company in October. The company has been financing itself by issuing warrants and diluting shareholders. Warrant holders have been exercising their $1.25ish strike warrants, selling the shares for $1.40-$2.00 and pocketing the difference. It appears they've been selling these shares to their buddies and institutions because institutional holdings have been increasing while the warrant exercising suppresses the stock price, allowing the big players to accumulate cheap. Technicals appear to indicate this is ending. Price is moving above the newly issued $2.00 warrants so they can keep up the game. There have also been large option buys the past few days for Jan 26, Feb 26, and Jan 27. The CEO recently skipped an event with the CEO of Pfizer a potential BO partner, meaning he's either the worst bio-tech CEO ever or maybe he is already in serious discussions with another company.
Anyway I've thrown enough into this to retire by golf season if things go well, but could also lose it in an instant. Should be fun either way! Join me if you're brave, stupid, and/or irresponsible.
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