Honestly, it is a gamble. He's had one amazing year, but that's basically it. Can he actually maintain that trend?
But these days, I don't really believe there's such a thing as a sure thing in coaching hires. I mean just look at how many big name head coaching hires have ultimately failed in recent years.
I try to look for factors that can make a coach look better than they really are - at least temporarily. Coaches who hit the jackpot with a QB are a classic - great for a short while, then fall off a cliff. Or you have a team like Texas Tech just straight up buying a championship-grade roster.
But I don't think that's the case for Aurich. They've got a former 3* CB who's a legit draft pick this year, but I haven't seen anything that would suggest their roster was particularly 'stuffed' this year compared to last year.