Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[SantaBarbaraSker]

AI bubble is quite something. Ain’t gonna be pretty when that thing bursts

Exactly why I have all my AI / tech stock on an 8% trailing stop loss, indefinitely. Recommended everyone do the same.






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[Toe]

Whose portfolio am I supposed to copy now?!

Nancy Pelosi announces retirement at the end of her term in Congress in 2027

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced Thursday in a video that she will retire at the end of her current term in Congress in 2027.

abc11.com

 

[Toe]

Sam Altman Loses His Cool When Asked About OpenAI's Minuscule Revenue

During a recent interview with OpenAI investor Brad Gerstner, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman lost his cool when asked about the company's tiny revenue.

futurism.com

 

[TampaBaySkers]

The 4 year cycle is one of the dumbest things. Its like 12 years old and the "cycle" is loose at best.

Sure looks like it’s following its four year cycle Jimbo. BTC crashing 35% from its peak. Whoowheee - how low will it go ?

 

[Jim14510]

Sure looks like it’s following its four year cycle Jimbo. BTC crashing 35% from its peak. Whoowheee - how low will it go ?

The 4 year cycle will continue because people think there's a 4 year cycle now. The crypto market is almost completely speculative.

 

[herbsinator]

The crypto market is almost completely speculative.

Okay how’s that different than the modern stock market?

 

[Jim14510]

Okay how’s that different than the modern stock market?

The stock market has earnings, layoffs, etc. Crypto has popularity. Optimistically the hope that it will be commonly used for exchange/currency.

 

[herbsinator]

The stock market has earnings, layoffs, etc. Crypto has popularity. Optimistically the hope that it will be commonly used for exchange/currency.

90% of retail investors actively trading are just betting on a stock going up or down without ever looking at a financial statement. I don’t think that’s any different than investing in crypto frankly.

For example, how many retail investors could actually articulate why Nivida’s $5.8bn increase in AR QOQ might be a problem?

 

[RedSavage]

The stock market has earnings, layoffs, etc. Crypto has popularity. Optimistically the hope that it will be commonly used for exchange/currency.

Love it or hate it, crypto is here to stay and only going to continue to become more prevalent in our society. The blockchain technology is what makes it valueable more than the currency aspect. I would argue it was speculative for a number of years and may still be to a degree but it has much more real life applications now

 

[Jim14510]

90% of retail investors actively trading are just betting on a stock going up or down without ever looking at a financial statement. I don’t think that’s any different than investing in crypto frankly.

For example, how many retail investors could actually articulate why Nivida’s $5.8bn increase in AR QOQ might be a problem?

The betting on it going up or down is speculative. It's speculative based on what the cash flows in the future will be for that company.

The speculation on crypto is based on bitcoin, ethereum, whatever becoming the method for exchanging currencies and/or use as a currency. Some of which activities could result in producing earnings. That's the optimistic end of it. What are those future earnings and how much of the current price is based on that future potential?

What percentage of cryptos even have that best case scenario possible? Obviously the meme coins don't and most people know that. What percentage has a realistic opportunity though?

 

[Jim14510]

Love it or hate it, crypto is here to stay and only going to continue to become more prevalent in our society. The blockchain technology is what makes it valueable more than the currency aspect. I would argue it was speculative for a number of years and may still be to a degree but it has much more real life applications now

Absolutely at least until a new technology is developed but most businesses have the risk of being replaced.

So how many cryptos will someday profit from their actual use?

The majority of the value is based on how popular the crypto is. If the popular consensus is that crypto has a 4 year cycle then the value will rise in the 4th year and decline after that 4th year.

 

[RedSavage]

Absolutely at least until a new technology is developed but most businesses have the risk of being replaced.

So how many cryptos will someday profit from their actual use?

The majority of the value is based on how popular the crypto is. If the popular consensus is that crypto has a 4 year cycle then the value will rise in the 4th year and decline after that 4th year.

Probably around 10 of them and those are the ones to invest in. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, etc. The 4-year cycle thing was true in its infancy but it’s a “mature” enough asset class at this point that I think that no longer holds true moving forward.

Hard to fathom what could replace blockchain that’s better but like anything there’s always that possibility. I think it would likely be incredibly hard though bc of how established it is and will be. Over 75 countries already own crypto. It’s primarily been purchased by institutional investors to this point. The retail investor has really just started getting into it. Personally think it’s going to continue to be one of the best performing asset classes on a more long-term basis.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

90% of retail investors actively trading are just betting on a stock going up or down without ever looking at a financial statement. I don’t think that’s any different than investing in crypto frankly.

For example, how many retail investors could actually articulate why Nivida’s $5.8bn increase in AR QOQ might be a problem?

Average Nvidia investor - number go up, I buy more

 

[TampaBaySkers]

Probably around 10 of them and those are the ones to invest in. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, etc. The 4-year cycle thing was true in its infancy but it’s a “mature” enough asset class at this point that I think that no longer holds true moving forward.

Hard to fathom what could replace blockchain that’s better but like anything there’s always that possibility. I think it would likely be incredibly hard though bc of how established it is and will be. Over 75 countries already own crypto. It’s primarily been purchased by institutional investors to this point. The retail investor has really just started getting into it. Personally think it’s going to continue to be one of the best performing asset classes on a more long-term basis.

The 4-year cycle thing was true in its infancy but it’s a “mature” enough asset class at this point that I think that no longer holds true moving forward

What? SOL has crashed 55%. BTC 35%. Eth down 43% if these aren’t crash numbers, what are?

 

[RedSavage]

The 4-year cycle thing was true in its infancy but it’s a “mature” enough asset class at this point that I think that no longer holds true moving forward

What? SOL has crashed 55%. BTC 35%. Eth down 43% if these aren’t crash numbers, what are?

I'm not saying it's not tanking right now. I think it will rebound just fine in the next few months and it will no longer follow the "4-year cycle" going forward

You also need to look at it on a relative basis. When an asset class has gone up as much as crypto has in such a short period of time, a 50% downturn is pretty nominal.

 

[Jim14510]

Probably around 10 of them and those are the ones to invest in. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, etc. The 4-year cycle thing was true in its infancy but it’s a “mature” enough asset class at this point that I think that no longer holds true moving forward.

Hard to fathom what could replace blockchain that’s better but like anything there’s always that possibility. I think it would likely be incredibly hard though bc of how established it is and will be. Over 75 countries already own crypto. It’s primarily been purchased by institutional investors to this point. The retail investor has really just started getting into it. Personally think it’s going to continue to be one of the best performing asset classes on a more long-term basis.

Whether or not crypto is around or more or less valuable at some point in the future is irrelevant to my point.

I agree that those are the ones to invest in long term but again the majority of that value is purely speculative and not based on what the forecasted results will be. At some point the results are going to matter. There's very little to quantify at this point.

So again the 4 year clock will behave like the 4 year clock as long as people believe there is a 4 year clock. No other reason.

 

[RedSavage]

Whether or not crypto is around or more or less valuable at some point in the future is irrelevant to my point.

I agree that those are the ones to invest in long term but again the majority of that value is purely speculative and not based on what the forecasted results will be. At some point the results are going to matter. There's very little to quantify at this point.

So again the 4 year clock will behave like the 4 year clock as long as people believe there is a 4 year clock. No other reason.

If you mean the value is purely speculative in that, how do you really put a dollar valuation on them, I somewhat agree. If you mean that the value is purely speculative in that it's just a speculative asset class and there is no underlying value, I would disagree.

 

[Mavsker]

The 4-year cycle thing was true in its infancy but it’s a “mature” enough asset class at this point that I think that no longer holds true moving forward

What? SOL has crashed 55%. BTC 35%. Eth down 43% if these aren’t crash numbers, what are?

 

[KidsSeeGhosts]

I'm not saying it's not tanking right now. I think it will rebound just fine in the next few months and it will no longer follow the "4-year cycle" going forward

You also need to look at it on a relative basis. When an asset class has gone up as much as crypto has in such a short period of time, a 50% downturn is pretty nominal.

I don’t think that anything from Web 3.0, tokenization or smart contracts has really materialized. Agree the blockchain is the value, but that’s also not crypto dependent.

 

[HughJanus]