Dana Holgerson Offense - What do we need?

[ShortSideOption]

 

[Kaladin]

 

[Pepe Silvia]

I'm hoping Clark earns more of a role. As much as we've tried and mostly failed to throw the fade this year, I'd like to see him earn some chances in the red zone

 

[...TrueColors...]

I know you know it’s early, but you were projecting 500yds/game, which i just don’t think is a realistic expectation. For reference:



I’m not sure how you quantify group C, but A+B is 2400-2600 yards. Let’s call it 3000 yards from WR. Correct me if I’m overstating your projections.

For TE you’ve got 400. RB you’ve got 400.

That’d be 3800 yards passing not counting miscellaneous yards from other TE, WR, RB.

It’s safe to say you were projecting 4000 yards passing. That’s A LOT. Especially when combined with wanting 2000 yards rushing.

So 500yds/game is the goal/expectation. To put that into context Nebraska’s past two years:

2024 - 353yds/game
2023 - 312yds/game

Further context….

B10 leader in offense YPG
2024 - Oregon/USC - 437ypg
2023 - Ohio State - 407ypg
2022 - Ohio State - 490ypg
2021 - Ohio state - 561ypg (next closest 447)

So I mean, 500 is doable, but it hasn’t happened since 2021 and that OSU offense was unreal.

I know where you based the numbers off, but West Virginia in a weak conference with a heisman candidate QB is not a good comp.

Our goal should be 425yds/game. Anything more is gravy.

So yes if you take 4000 passing yards and 2000 rush yards , add them up and divide it by a 12 game schedule it comes out to be 500 yards per game.

But if you take it 3800 (Will Greier’s number in 2018) and 2000 rush yards (which we won’t get to this year; but I’m keeping this here for the sake of the conversation) and divide it by 13 (number of games 2018 WVU numbers were based off of) you get to about 445.

 

[Quint]

Yards are important and an indicator of offensive ‘health’, but we’ve lost a ton of football games over the last decade while winning that battle.

Scoring, especially when we cross mid field, has to happen at a higher rate than previous seasons.

 

[HuskerDocCo]

Yards are important and an indicator of offensive ‘health’, but we’ve lost a ton of football games over the last decade while winning that battle.

Scoring, especially when we cross mid field, has to happen at a higher rate than previous seasons.

hmmm oh yeah baby mmmmmm

 

[Blakejc]

So yes if you take 4000 passing yards and 2000 rush yards , add them up and divide it by a 12 game schedule it comes out to be 500 yards per game.

But if you take it 3800 (Will Greier’s number in 2018) and 2000 rush yards (which we won’t get to this year; but I’m keeping this here for the sake of the conversation) and divide it by 13 (number of games 2018 WVU numbers were based off of) you get to about 445.

not sure why anyone doing this exercise would base it off 13 games, but OK

 

[...TrueColors...]

not sure why anyone doing this exercise would base it off 13 games, but OK

If you base it off of 12 that’s fine. But it was much easier to find and work with total season production for DH’s time at WVU than sit down and break it down by game.

 

[whoboppin]

ABSOLUTELY NOT AN “I WAS RIGHT POST” because let’s be honest, we still don’t know.

Let’s take a way too early look at the numbers:

Group A:

Hunter - 10catches for 147
Key - 9 catches for 89
Barney - 12 catches for 159

Through two weeks, can we see these guys each catching 700 yards? Key is the only one behind the pace and I feel like he’ll have a game or two where he breaks out and catches 100 yards. When I say he’s behind, he’s 60 yards behind the pace.

Group B

I feel it’s fair to say this group is still emerging. Can Mozee keep up this pace?

Lindenmeyer - 8 catches for 91 yards
Mozee - 4 catches for 64 yards
Clark - 2 catches for 44

Group C

I also feel this one is still emerging.

Mills - 2/20
EJ - 9/34
Nelson - 3/52

Where Id say we are behind is I feel Key needs a few more catches. Which I expect he will get. I also don’t know about groups B & C.

What say you all?

Nice breakdown. Based on how the offense is looking this year, I don't think 3800 is really out of reach in 13 games, but I do think it will somewhat take away from the rushing yardage totals as Raiola/Nebraska use the short passing game as a running game. So I would anticipate our rushing offense totals to be lower then what we anticipated in preseason. Not necessarily a bad thing though if Raiola can prove to be this accurate. A dump pass might as well be a run. The biggest factor would be how involved Mozee and Nelson are in the passing game. Nelson seems more like a runner and Mozee a receiver. Can Nebraska get 400-500 out of Mozee and 200 out of Nelson? If those guys are truley weapons and involved Raiola could be looking at close to a 3800-4000 yard season. Need to go get close to another 400 vs HCU.

 

[whoboppin]

Mid seasons Stats - Extrapolated to 13 games

QB

Raiola - 1591 yards, 16 TDs. 5 INTs - 3447 yards, 35 TD, 11 INTS (TDs and INTs rounded up)

RB

Johnson - 650 rushing yards, 7 TDs - 1408 yards, 15 TD
130 Receiving yards, 1 TD 281 yards, 2 TD

WR

A) 3 Guys who catch 700+ ✅ Pace Avg 756 yards
Hunter - 415 yards, 4 TDs - 899 yards, 8.6 TD
Barney - 364 yards, 3 TDs - 788 yards, 6.5 TD
Key - 269 yards 4 TDs - 582 yards, 8.6 TD

B) 1 guy who catches 3-500 yards ✅ Pace for 424 yards
Lindenmeyer 196 yards, 2 TDs - 424 yards, 4 TDs
Mills 138 yards, 299 yards, 2 TDs

Thoughts? Would be a pretty good year, probably looking at 9-3 for sure and good chance at 10-2, IMO. Can Nebraska keep pace? EJ gonna have almost 1700 all purpose yards?

 

[SoCal_Corn]

Mid seasons Stats - Extrapolated to 13 games

QB

Raiola - 1591 yards, 16 TDs. 5 INTs - 3447 yards, 35 TD, 11 INTS (TDs and INTs rounded up)

RB

Johnson - 650 rushing yards, 7 TDs - 1408 yards, 15 TD
130 Receiving yards, 1 TD 281 yards, 2 TD

WR

A) 3 Guys who catch 700+ ✅ Pace Avg 756 yards
Hunter - 415 yards, 4 TDs - 899 yards, 8.6 TD
Barney - 364 yards, 3 TDs - 788 yards, 6.5 TD
Key - 269 yards 4 TDs - 582 yards, 8.6 TD

B) 1 guy who catches 3-500 yards ✅ Pace for 424 yards
Lindenmeyer 196 yards, 2 TDs - 424 yards, 4 TDs
Mills 138 yards, 299 yards, 2 TDs

Thoughts? Would be a pretty good year, probably looking at 9-3 for sure and good chance at 10-2, IMO. Can Nebraska keep pace? EJ gonna have almost 1700 all purpose yards?

Extrapolating is one of my favorite things to do.

But thanks for doing it for us.

 

[herbsinator]

Mid seasons Stats - Extrapolated to 13 games

QB

Raiola - 1591 yards, 16 TDs. 5 INTs - 3447 yards, 35 TD, 11 INTS (TDs and INTs rounded up)

RB

Johnson - 650 rushing yards, 7 TDs - 1408 yards, 15 TD
130 Receiving yards, 1 TD 281 yards, 2 TD

WR

A) 3 Guys who catch 700+ ✅ Pace Avg 756 yards
Hunter - 415 yards, 4 TDs - 899 yards, 8.6 TD
Barney - 364 yards, 3 TDs - 788 yards, 6.5 TD
Key - 269 yards 4 TDs - 582 yards, 8.6 TD

B) 1 guy who catches 3-500 yards ✅ Pace for 424 yards
Lindenmeyer 196 yards, 2 TDs - 424 yards, 4 TDs
Mills 138 yards, 299 yards, 2 TDs

Thoughts? Would be a pretty good year, probably looking at 9-3 for sure and good chance at 10-2, IMO. Can Nebraska keep pace? EJ gonna have almost 1700 all purpose yards?

This guy’s boppin

 

[MaxHuskers34]

Mid seasons Stats - Extrapolated to 13 games

QB

Raiola - 1591 yards, 16 TDs. 5 INTs - 3447 yards, 35 TD, 11 INTS (TDs and INTs rounded up)

RB

Johnson - 650 rushing yards, 7 TDs - 1408 yards, 15 TD
130 Receiving yards, 1 TD 281 yards, 2 TD

WR

A) 3 Guys who catch 700+ ✅ Pace Avg 756 yards
Hunter - 415 yards, 4 TDs - 899 yards, 8.6 TD
Barney - 364 yards, 3 TDs - 788 yards, 6.5 TD
Key - 269 yards 4 TDs - 582 yards, 8.6 TD

B) 1 guy who catches 3-500 yards ✅ Pace for 424 yards
Lindenmeyer 196 yards, 2 TDs - 424 yards, 4 TDs
Mills 138 yards, 299 yards, 2 TDs

Thoughts? Would be a pretty good year, probably looking at 9-3 for sure and good chance at 10-2, IMO. Can Nebraska keep pace? EJ gonna have almost 1700 all purpose yards?

I feel better and better about my preseason offensive predictions each passing week.

1. Emmett Johnson is going to accumulate over 1800 yards of offense.
- For his career he has averaged 5 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per reception. Emmett is going to touch the ball A LOT this season partially because I don't like the depth at RB at all. Also, in part because Emmett is the best pass catching back Nebraska has had since Marlon Lucky. He's going to take off and I imagine he'll be setting new career highs and will average around 9.5 yards per touch.

2. Dylan Raiola is going to lead the Big 10 in passing touchdowns and completion percentage.
- Somehow I am much higher on DR this year than a lot of people. Once Dana took over the offense, DR averaged over 70% completion. I expect him to take a huge jump mentally and be able to handle man coverage much better. I am not sure there is a better QB in the conference (country?) at picking apart a zone defense and layering the ball between coverage. I see Dylan throwing for 37 TD's at a clip of 72% completion on the year.

3. Marcus Satterfield is Nebraska's most valuable Assistant Coach.
- Now hear me out.... Is Marcus Satterfield a terrible OC? Absolutely. Is Marcus Satterfield a good TE coach? Absolutely. Nebraska is going to use the TE position a lot this year. They finally have depth and players they believe in. Marcus Satterfield has taken his demotion in stride and personally, I think he's happy to be a position coach again. Dana and Sat are going to get the TE's into favorable matchups and the TE's will actually score more TD's than any other position group this year.