Stock Market/Investing/Day Trading/Speculative Trading Thread

[KidsSeeGhosts]

Why spend a shit ton of money moving manufacturing to the US over two years when I can just wait four years and not have to deal with Trump anymore?

Ding ding ding. It takes a super fucking long time to build manufacturing infrastructure. Plus realistically. unless you actually do open borders, you're not even going to have the workers to do it. The only way it works is if you lean into automating everything for future state.

 

[cwessel76]

We'll see. It will tick up for sure but I'm not sure it will be as bad as it seems. I've seen quite a few projections over the last few weeks of what the predicted implications of specific tariffs will do to inflation and they aren't THAT bad (I work in the finance industry so these are coming from very large institutions). Companies are still making a shit load of money and will continue to, even with the tariffs. There is around $7 Trillion in cash in the US right now, with a ton of it waiting for a buying opportunity like this. I can go on and on about why we will be fine and a lot of it has nothing to do with tariffs.

I would hazard a guess that any projects from weeks ago couldn’t take taken into account the economic seppuku that was Wednesday’s news.

 

[JerryBones5]

We'll see. It will tick up for sure but I'm not sure it will be as bad as it seems. I've seen quite a few projections over the last few weeks of what the predicted implications of specific tariffs will do to inflation and they aren't THAT bad (I work in the finance industry so these are coming from very large institutions). Companies are still making a shit load of money and will continue to, even with the tariffs. There is around $7 Trillion in cash in the US right now, with a ton of it waiting for a buying opportunity like this. I can go on and on about why we will be fine and a lot of it has nothing to do with tariffs.

I am in the finance industry as well, seeing the same shit. People are fearmongering. Speaking of tarrifs, I bet half the tarrifs are dropped from trade agreements in the coming weeks but what do I know

 

[Snockered69]

Ding ding ding. It takes a super fucking long time to build manufacturing infrastructure. Plus realistically. unless you actually do open borders, you're not even going to have the workers to do it. The only way it works is if you lean into automating everything for future state.

We had open borders for 4 years, country looks great.

 

[cwessel76]

Ding ding ding. It takes a super fucking long time to build manufacturing infrastructure. Plus realistically. unless you actually do open borders, you're not even going to have the workers to do it. The only way it works is if you lean into automating everything for future state.

Ding ding ding. Hiring people is fucking difficult even now. Add increased labor and production costs - this shit has to come from somewhere overseas - will just get passed to the consumer.

 

[cwessel76]

We had open borders for 4 years, country looks great.

Further proving his point.

 

[BingoDingo]

We'll see. It will tick up for sure but I'm not sure it will be as bad as it seems. I've seen quite a few projections over the last few weeks of what the predicted implications of specific tariffs will do to inflation and they aren't THAT bad (I work in the finance industry so these are coming from very large institutions). Companies are still making a shit load of money and will continue to, even with the tariffs. There is around $7 Trillion in cash in the US right now, with a ton of it waiting for a buying opportunity like this. I can go on and on about why we will be fine and a lot of it has nothing to do with tariffs.

Just because we will be fine(which we will) doesn't mean it's good...in fact, people having less real income and having to pay more for goods is actually bad, regardless of people's investment opportunities, lol.

 

[KidsSeeGhosts]

We'll see. It will tick up for sure but I'm not sure it will be as bad as it seems. I've seen quite a few projections over the last few weeks of what the predicted implications of specific tariffs will do to inflation and they aren't THAT bad (I work in the finance industry so these are coming from very large institutions). Companies are still making a shit load of money and will continue to, even with the tariffs. There is around $7 Trillion in cash in the US right now, with a ton of it waiting for a buying opportunity like this. I can go on and on about why we will be fine and a lot of it has nothing to do with tariffs.

Lost to the sands of time is all the bold predictions of the cash infusion from the repatriation provisions of the TCJA that never really materialized and no one brings up. This is a significantly more risky and speculative policy move. Yes, there is a ton of dry powder out there with various parties, but, for example, we're likely not going to get the predicted M&A and IPO/secondary boom this year. Market uncertainty tends to do that.

 

[cwessel76]

Just because we will be fine(which we will) doesn't mean it's good...in fact, people having less real income and having to pay more for goods is actually bad, regardless of people's investment opportunities, lol.

The finance class:

Literally everyone else:

 

[KidsSeeGhosts]

We had open borders for 4 years, country looks great.

 

[JerryBones5]

Just because we will be fine(which we will) doesn't mean it's good...in fact, people having less real income and having to pay more for goods is actually bad, regardless of people's investment opportunities, lol.

Totally get this. But I doubt inflation is going to be as bad as people think. There is ways to combat it. Just my 2 cents

 

[cwessel76]

Totally get this. But I doubt the inflation is going to be as bad as people thing. There is ways to combat it. Just my 2 cents

Do share and CC Powell.

 

[Snockered69]

The finance class:

Literally everyone else:

Privatize the gains, socialize the losses.

 

[KidsSeeGhosts]

I am in the finance industry as well, seeing the same shit. People are fearmongering. Speaking of tarrifs, I bet half the tarrifs are dropped from trade agreements in the coming weeks but what do I know

Everyone is obviously just guessing. My favorite banker quote of all time was some JPM/GS bro who told us on a call during the SVB blow-up that the macro overhang would last "anywhere from 6 months to 3 years."

 

[cwessel76]

Privatize the gains, socialize the losses.

 

[cwessel76]

Everyone is obviously just guessing. My favorite banker quote of all time was some JPM/GS bro who told us on a call during the SVB blow-up that the macro overhang would last "anywhere from 6 months to 3 years."

Oh the halcyon days of the SVB collapse

 

[LoudHogRider]

Being against Implementing across-the-board tariffs - which conveniently skip Russia and North Korea by the way - is deliberately obtuse? Pardon?

I was under the impression that due to sanctions against these two countries, we don’t actually engage in trade with them. Ergo, there is nothing to sanction.

 

[BingoDingo]

Totally get this. But I doubt inflation is going to be as bad as people thing. There is ways to combat it. Just my 2 cents

20-50% increases in input prices are probably hard to combat but you know, maybe robotics prices will scale quicker, lol.

 

[cwessel76]

I was under the impression that due to sanctions against these two countries, we don’t actually engage in trade with them. Ergo, there is nothing to sanction.

Not true for Russia - not sure about NK.

But even then…

 

[BingoDingo]

I was under the impression that due to sanctions against these two countries, we don’t actually engage in trade with them. Ergo, there is nothing to sanction.

We certainly still trade with Russia. 3.5 billion, so not much...but more than a ton of the actual tariff list, lol.