What happens if CHAOS today?

[That SOB Van Owen]

Let’s say Baylor, Georgia, Houston and Cockeyes win. Who gets in the CFP?

 

[That SOB Van Owen]

I think it would be:

1. Georgia
2. Notre Dame
3. Alabama
4. Baylor


Now the obvious argument here is that cincy beat ND head to head, but with the way the committee has told the G5 to pound sand in the past, I think that’s how it’s go.

 

[ChocaEgg]

UGA
Alabama (ESPN will make sure of this)
Baylor
ND

 

[ChocaEgg]

I think it would be:

1. Georgia
2. Notre Dame
3. Alabama
4. Baylor


Now the obvious argument here is that cincy beat ND head to head, but with the way the committee has told the G5 to pound sand in the past, I think that’s how it’s go.

Smart guy

 

[Skerz4Life50]

Let’s say Baylor, Georgia, Houston and Cockeyes win. Who gets in the CFP?

The Athletic had an article about this (below - #13). They seem to think it would be:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama or Michigan
3. Alabama or Michigan
4. Notre Dame or Baylor

My last column laying out the most likely remaining College Football Playoffscenarios came out last week. That feels like three months ago.

I’m back with another edition, and one notable change in thinking: My ninth and 10th scenarios included Notre Dame sneaking in to the top 4, thanks to conference championship-game upsets. After the 11-1 Irish failed to move up from No. 6 this week, I believe the only way they get in is if nearly every single favorite loses this weekend — not because of Brian Kelly’s defection, but because of three relevant pieces of committee precedent.

1. The committee cares a lot about Top 25 wins. Notre Dame doesn’t have any, now that 8-4 Wisconsin fell out of Tuesday night’s rankings after its loss to Minnesota. And unlike every other contender, the Irish can’t add one this weekend.

2. The committee cares far more about who you beat than who you lost to. It has demonstrated that countless times, but most recently, Oregon rose back up to No. 3 despite losing to a Stanford team that never won another game. Therefore, the traditional assumption that an idle team will “pass” a team above it just because that team lost (in an extra game) might not apply here.

3. The committee has not punished conference title-game losers to nearly the extent it does during the regular season. Since 2014, there have been five top-4 teams that lost Thanksgiving weekend. They dropped by an average of 4.6 spots. But the five top-4 teams that lost in their conference championship games dropped an average of 2.0 spots. Three of them — 2015 Cockeye, 2018 Georgia and 2019 Georgia — fell only from No. 4 to No. 5.

That’s important context going into a weekend in which No. 1 Georgia faces No. 3 Alabama and No. 2 Michigan faces No. 13 Cockeye. Based on precedent, it’s entirely plausible that The Tide and/or Wolverines could lose but go to the Playoff.

By my count, there are exactly 14 remaining scenarios, which I’ve ranked roughly from most to least likely.

1. Chalk.​

No. 1 Georgia is a 6.5-point favorite over No. 3 Alabama, No. 2 Michigan is a 10.5-point favorite over No. 13 Cockeye, No. 4 Cincinnati is a 10.5-point favorite over No. 21 Houston and No. 5 Oklahoma State is a 5.5-point favorite over No. 9 Baylor. The only mystery here would be the order of Nos. 3 and 4. In my view, Oklahoma State, by picking up its third win over a current top-15 team, would jump above Cincinnati.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

2. Alabama beats Georgia, everything else holds serve​

As much as it would infuriate many, the Bearcats may lose out in this scenario. The committee already considers 12-0 Cincinnati and 11-1 Oklahoma State only one spot apart; the Cowboys would be adding a neutral-site win over a top-10 team, whereas Cincinnati is beating a low-Top 25 team at home. You can hear the forthcoming uproar.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia

3. Georgia beats Alabama, Baylor beats Oklahoma State​

This is the first scenario where Notre Dame comes in to play. Though the Tide have been limping to the finish line, they still boast five wins over teams ranked in Sagarin’s top 30 (and other computer ratings look similar). Notre Dame has two. I fail to see how the Tide, with that resume, fall behind the Irish by losing to the No. 1 team in the country.

I may feel differently if the Dawgs blow Alabama off the field. That’d be a rough last impression. But in 2019, No. 4 Georgia lost 37-10 to No. 1 LSU and fell just one spot, remaining above an 11-2 Oregon team that upset No. 5 Utah 37-15.

And no, the committee would not try to avoid a Georgia-Alabama rematch.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

4. Alabama beats Georgia, Baylor beats Oklahoma State​

This one’s straightforward.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia

5. Georgia beats Alabama, Houston beats Cincinnati​

Again, Alabama holds off Notre Dame for the last spot.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

6. Alabama beats Georgia, Houston beats Cincinnati​

Same as No. 2.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia

7. Georgia beats Alabama, Cockeye beats Michigan​

This one’s hard, in part because none of the previous conference title game losers faced a team ranked as low as Cockeye. But keep in mind, committee chairman (and Cockeye athletic director) Gary Barta has been calling the Wolverines a “complete team” for weeks. He’s never said that about Notre Dame. Also, coincidentally, the Irish’s best win was against 8-4 Wisconsin. Michigan beat the Badgers as well, but the Wolverines also have a resounding win over 10-2 Ohio State on top of that.

Michigan stays above Notre Dame, but it’s anyone’s guess whether the Wolverines remain above Alabama. It will probably depend on the teams’ performances Saturday.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Michigan or Alabama
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

8. Alabama beats Georgia, Cockeye beats Michigan​

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Given Georgia has been so dominant all season against a highly-ranked schedule, the Dawgs aren’t falling behind Oklahoma State or Cincinnati.

9. Georgia beats Alabama, Cockeye beats Michigan, Baylor beats Oklahoma State​

This is such a strange scenario. Cincinnati would likely go from sweating whether it stays in the top four to moving all the way up to No. 2, and it probably means both Michigan and Alabama remain in the top four (order unknown).

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Michigan or Alabama
No. 2 Cincinnati vs. No. 3 Michigan or Alabama

10. Alabama beats Georgia, Cockeye beats Michigan, Baylor beats Oklahoma State​

Same four teams, but with much clearer seeding.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Michigan
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

11. Georgia beats Alabama, Cockeye beats Michigan, Houston beats Cincinnati​

This is pretty much the same as No. 9, but with Oklahoma State playing the Cincinnati role.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Michigan or Alabama
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Michigan or Alabama

12. Alabama beats Georgia, Cockeye beats Michigan, Houston beats Cincinnati​

And this is very similar to No. 10.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Michigan
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

13. Georgia beats Alabama, Cockeye beats Michigan, Houston beats Cincinnati and Baylor beats Oklahoma State​

Help!!!

The only certainties would be Georgia is No. 1 and Cincinnati and Oklahoma State are done. Michigan and Alabama likely stay in the No. 2 and 3 spots (in some order) because there’s no one left that can pass them. Heck, if Alabama lost 20-17 to Georgia it would probably move up from No. 3 to No. 2.

Surely now Notre Dame makes it, right? Well … what about No. 9 Baylor?

It sounds crazy that a two-loss team, which even dropped a spot this week after an unimpressive 27-24 win over Texas Tech, could jump five spots. But consider what the Bears’ resume would be at that point: Wins over the current No. 5 (Oklahoma State), No. 12 (BYU) and No. 14 (Oklahoma) teams. They would avenge their 24-14 loss in Stillwater, and the other came by two points at 5-7 TCU. Three teams, 2015 Michigan State and Oklahoma and 2017 Clemson, have made it despite losses to sub-.500 foes, albeit in their only defeats of the season.

Compared head-to-head with Notre Dame, Baylor has three top-15 wins to Notre Dame’s zero Top 25 wins, and five Sagarin top 40 wins to the Irish’s two.

The saving grace for the Irish: Currently all the analytics have Notre Dame significantly higher than Baylor. In SP+, it’s No. 7 vs. No. 18; In Sagarin, No. 5 vs. No. 16; in FPI, No. 5 vs. No. 18. Therefore, I’m inclined to believe Baylor jumps several spots but doesn’t overtake the Irish. And if it’s No. 4 Notre Dame/No. 5 Baylor/No. 6 Cincinnati, the Bears become a buffer to negate the Cincy/Notre Dame head-to-head tiebreaker.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2/3 Michigan vs. No. 2/3 Alabama

14. Alabama beats Georgia, Cockeye beats Michigan, Houston beats Cincinnati and Baylor beats Oklahoma State​

Just like in my last edition, we get another Alabama-Notre Dame semifinal.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan

In his new job as an SEC coach, Brian Kelly is forced to root against the Irish.

 

[Cash68847]

The Athletic had an article about this (below - #13). They seem to think it would be:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama or Michigan
3. Alabama or Michigan
4. Notre Dame or Baylor

My last column laying out the most likely remaining College Football Playoffscenarios came out last week. That feels like three months ago.

I’m back with another edition, and one notable change in thinking: My ninth and 10th scenarios included Notre Dame sneaking in to the top 4, thanks to conference championship-game upsets. After the 11-1 Irish failed to move up from No. 6 this week, I believe the only way they get in is if nearly every single favorite loses this weekend — not because of Brian Kelly’s defection, but because of three relevant pieces of committee precedent.

1. The committee cares a lot about Top 25 wins. Notre Dame doesn’t have any, now that 8-4 Wisconsin fell out of Tuesday night’s rankings after its loss to Minnesota. And unlike every other contender, the Irish can’t add one this weekend.

2. The committee cares far more about who you beat than who you lost to. It has demonstrated that countless times, but most recently, Oregon rose back up to No. 3 despite losing to a Stanford team that never won another game. Therefore, the traditional assumption that an idle team will “pass” a team above it just because that team lost (in an extra game) might not apply here.

3. The committee has not punished conference title-game losers to nearly the extent it does during the regular season. Since 2014, there have been five top-4 teams that lost Thanksgiving weekend. They dropped by an average of 4.6 spots. But the five top-4 teams that lost in their conference championship games dropped an average of 2.0 spots. Three of them — 2015 Cockeyes, 2018 Georgia and 2019 Georgia — fell only from No. 4 to No. 5.

That’s important context going into a weekend in which No. 1 Georgia faces No. 3 Alabama and No. 2 Michigan faces No. 13 Cockeyes. Based on precedent, it’s entirely plausible that The Tide and/or Wolverines could lose but go to the Playoff.

By my count, there are exactly 14 remaining scenarios, which I’ve ranked roughly from most to least likely.

1. Chalk.​

No. 1 Georgia is a 6.5-point favorite over No. 3 Alabama, No. 2 Michigan is a 10.5-point favorite over No. 13 Cockeyes, No. 4 Cincinnati is a 10.5-point favorite over No. 21 Houston and No. 5 Oklahoma State is a 5.5-point favorite over No. 9 Baylor. The only mystery here would be the order of Nos. 3 and 4. In my view, Oklahoma State, by picking up its third win over a current top-15 team, would jump above Cincinnati.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

2. Alabama beats Georgia, everything else holds serve​

As much as it would infuriate many, the Bearcats may lose out in this scenario. The committee already considers 12-0 Cincinnati and 11-1 Oklahoma State only one spot apart; the Cowboys would be adding a neutral-site win over a top-10 team, whereas Cincinnati is beating a low-Top 25 team at home. You can hear the forthcoming uproar.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia

3. Georgia beats Alabama, Baylor beats Oklahoma State​

This is the first scenario where Notre Dame comes in to play. Though the Tide have been limping to the finish line, they still boast five wins over teams ranked in Sagarin’s top 30 (and other computer ratings look similar). Notre Dame has two. I fail to see how the Tide, with that resume, fall behind the Irish by losing to the No. 1 team in the country.

I may feel differently if the Dawgs blow Alabama off the field. That’d be a rough last impression. But in 2019, No. 4 Georgia lost 37-10 to No. 1 LSU and fell just one spot, remaining above an 11-2 Oregon team that upset No. 5 Utah 37-15.

And no, the committee would not try to avoid a Georgia-Alabama rematch.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

4. Alabama beats Georgia, Baylor beats Oklahoma State​

This one’s straightforward.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia

5. Georgia beats Alabama, Houston beats Cincinnati​

Again, Alabama holds off Notre Dame for the last spot.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

6. Alabama beats Georgia, Houston beats Cincinnati​

Same as No. 2.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia

7. Georgia beats Alabama, Cockeyes beats Michigan​

This one’s hard, in part because none of the previous conference title game losers faced a team ranked as low as Cockeyes. But keep in mind, committee chairman (and Cockeyes athletic director) Gary Barta has been calling the Wolverines a “complete team” for weeks. He’s never said that about Notre Dame. Also, coincidentally, the Irish’s best win was against 8-4 Wisconsin. Michigan beat the Badgers as well, but the Wolverines also have a resounding win over 10-2 Ohio State on top of that.

Michigan stays above Notre Dame, but it’s anyone’s guess whether the Wolverines remain above Alabama. It will probably depend on the teams’ performances Saturday.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Michigan or Alabama
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

8. Alabama beats Georgia, Cockeyes beats Michigan​

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Given Georgia has been so dominant all season against a highly-ranked schedule, the Dawgs aren’t falling behind Oklahoma State or Cincinnati.

9. Georgia beats Alabama, Cockeyes beats Michigan, Baylor beats Oklahoma State​

This is such a strange scenario. Cincinnati would likely go from sweating whether it stays in the top four to moving all the way up to No. 2, and it probably means both Michigan and Alabama remain in the top four (order unknown).

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Michigan or Alabama
No. 2 Cincinnati vs. No. 3 Michigan or Alabama

10. Alabama beats Georgia, Cockeyes beats Michigan, Baylor beats Oklahoma State​

Same four teams, but with much clearer seeding.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Michigan
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

11. Georgia beats Alabama, Cockeyes beats Michigan, Houston beats Cincinnati​

This is pretty much the same as No. 9, but with Oklahoma State playing the Cincinnati role.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Michigan or Alabama
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Michigan or Alabama

12. Alabama beats Georgia, Cockeyes beats Michigan, Houston beats Cincinnati​

And this is very similar to No. 10.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Michigan
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

13. Georgia beats Alabama, Cockeyes beats Michigan, Houston beats Cincinnati and Baylor beats Oklahoma State​

Help!!!

The only certainties would be Georgia is No. 1 and Cincinnati and Oklahoma State are done. Michigan and Alabama likely stay in the No. 2 and 3 spots (in some order) because there’s no one left that can pass them. Heck, if Alabama lost 20-17 to Georgia it would probably move up from No. 3 to No. 2.

Surely now Notre Dame makes it, right? Well … what about No. 9 Baylor?

It sounds crazy that a two-loss team, which even dropped a spot this week after an unimpressive 27-24 win over Texas Tech, could jump five spots. But consider what the Bears’ resume would be at that point: Wins over the current No. 5 (Oklahoma State), No. 12 (BYU) and No. 14 (Oklahoma) teams. They would avenge their 24-14 loss in Stillwater, and the other came by two points at 5-7 TCU. Three teams, 2015 Michigan State and Oklahoma and 2017 Clemson, have made it despite losses to sub-.500 foes, albeit in their only defeats of the season.

Compared head-to-head with Notre Dame, Baylor has three top-15 wins to Notre Dame’s zero Top 25 wins, and five Sagarin top 40 wins to the Irish’s two.

The saving grace for the Irish: Currently all the analytics have Notre Dame significantly higher than Baylor. In SP+, it’s No. 7 vs. No. 18; In Sagarin, No. 5 vs. No. 16; in FPI, No. 5 vs. No. 18. Therefore, I’m inclined to believe Baylor jumps several spots but doesn’t overtake the Irish. And if it’s No. 4 Notre Dame/No. 5 Baylor/No. 6 Cincinnati, the Bears become a buffer to negate the Cincy/Notre Dame head-to-head tiebreaker.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2/3 Michigan vs. No. 2/3 Alabama

14. Alabama beats Georgia, Cockeyes beats Michigan, Houston beats Cincinnati and Baylor beats Oklahoma State​

Just like in my last edition, we get another Alabama-Notre Dame semifinal.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan

In his new job as an SEC coach, Brian Kelly is forced to root against the Irish.

If Bama wins and those other teams lose we can do a sec final four.

 

[CornFed Gregger]

If Notre Dame is getting in now, I’d rather see them jump Cincinnati & we get Michigan vs ND. I want to see Georgia rape the Bearcats or we get a crazy Boise State type upset.

 

[Jim14510]

Worst case scenario other than Cockeye winning is Alabama winning. Up 2 TD's now. Really didn't see this coming.

 

[That SOB Van Owen]

Worst case scenario other than Cockeyes winning is Alabama winning. Up 2 TD's now. Really didn't see this coming.

Its gonna be - Alabama 1 and Georgia 2.