Week 7 @ Maryland: Game Notes, Depth Chart, Etc…

[ChocaEgg]

What’s the Maryland autocorrect going to be? Turdles?

I went with Murdaland

 

[LoudHogRider]

I went with Murdaland

TeraPEENS

 

[Seaofred92]

Already down to NU -4.5

 

[Seaofred92]

Circa opens NU -4 on Saturday

 

[cwessel76]

Circa opens NU -4 on Saturday

Sounds about right IMO

 

[TampaBaySkers]

Already down to NU -4.5

Hard rock went from -6.5 to -3.5. Quite some movement

 

[cwessel76]

TeraPEENS

TeraPENIS

 

[That SOB Van Owen]

About a FG seems right.

 

[That SOB Van Owen]

Total 49.5

So line says 27-23 Nebraska.

 

[V-Doub]

Im really not sure what to think of this game. I thought going in to the week they were very overrated, but they played Washington well, and I like what Washington brings to the table.

I'm gonna lean on the side of Kool aid and say 34-17 dub.

Hey, all things being equal you gotta go full Kool aid. That’s what I say…

 

[Baron Winnebago]

I'm not sure how Maryland moves the ball on Nebraska. They are somehow worse at rushing than Nebraska is at like 78 ypg which is near the very bottom in America.

It looks like they've only given up 1 sack this season so maybe they keep Washington clean all day and carve us up, but no team has come even close to doing that so far

 

[Kaladin]

Here's what ChatGPT says:

Snapshot (through Oct 5)​

• Records: Nebraska 4–1 (1–1); Maryland 4–1 (1–1). Huskers+1
• Kick/time/TV: 3:30 ET at SECU Stadium, BTN. UMTerps
• Market right now: spread hovering Nebraska –6 to –6.5, total ~50.5 (range varies by book). Action Network+1

Team form & real stats (5-game sample)​

Nebraska (through Oct 5, official PDF)​

• Scoring: 42.4 PPG (212 total); opponents 16.2. Google Cloud Storage
• Offense: 449.4 yds/g (6.5 ypp) — 320.2 pass yds/g (13 TD, 2 INT) at 76.1% comp, 129.2 rush yds/g. Google Cloud Storage
• Defense: allows 247.4 yds/g — 91.8 pass yds/g (!), 155.6 rush yds/g; opp 3rd-down 22% (14/64). Google Cloud Storage
• Pressure & red zone notes: 10 sacks for; 15 sacks allowed; red-zone TD rate 59% (16/27). Google Cloud Storage
• Key individuals: QB Dylan Raiola 1,331 yds, 12 TD, 2 INT (74.2%); RB Emmett Johnson 474 rush yds, 7 TD; WR Jacory Barney Jr. 348 yds, 3 TD. Google Cloud Storage+1

Maryland (through Oct 5, official team page)​

• Scoring: 30.0 PPG; opponents 13.4. UMTerps
• Offense: 349.6 yds/g (5.2 ypp) — 256.4 pass yds/g, 93.2 rush yds/g (3.3 per rush). UMTerps
• Defense: allows 318.4 yds/g; opponents 221.6 pass yds/g and 96.8 rush yds/g. 19 sacks generated in 5 games; 9 INTs. UMTerps
• 3rd-down: Offense 36.5% (27/74); defense 28.1% allowed (23/82). UMTerps
• QB/skill: Malik Washington 1,257 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT; top targets Shaleak Knotts (5 TD) and Octavian Smith Jr.. UMTerps
• Recent result: Blew a 20–0 lead vs Washington, lost 24–20 on Oct 4 → now 4–1. Testudo Times+1

Matchup edges (what actually moves the needle)​

1. Nebraska pass O vs Maryland pass D
   
   • Nebraska’s aerial game is rolling (320.2 yds/g, 9.1 YPA), but Maryland counters with real ball production: 19 sacks + 9 INTs already. Nebraska’s line has allowed 15 sacks, so pressure is Maryland’s path to kills on drives. Net: Nebraska still +EV through the air, but expect some negative plays. Google Cloud Storage+1
2. Maryland rush O vs Nebraska rush D
   
   • Nebraska’s soft spot is run defense (155.6 rush yds/g at 4.5 per carry allowed), but Maryland’s run game has been meh (93.2 yds/g, 3.3 per carry). If the Terps can’t run, they’re forced into Nebraska’s defensive strength (elite pass suppression). Net: tilt toward Nebraska because Maryland likely can’t exploit the Huskers’ rush D enough. Google Cloud Storage+1
3. 3rd-down / hidden yards
   
   • Nebraska defense is erasing 3rd downs (22% allowed). Maryland’s offense sits 36.5%; that’s a tough math problem for sustained drives. Nebraska also flips field with strong punt return value (14.9 avg) and great defensive INT rate. Google Cloud Storage+1
4. Situational factors
   
   • Home field to Maryland (≈ +1 to +1.5 pts).
   • Schedule form: both off conference games; Maryland’s collapse vs UW may linger or sharpen focus.
   • Weather: check late, but baseline October conditions in College Park rarely brutal; if windy/rainy, it suppresses Nebraska’s biggest edge (downfield passing). (Kick window/time verified on Maryland site.) UMTerps

Price check vs “fair” number​

• Market: Nebraska –6 to –6.5; O/U ~50.5. Action Network+1
• My fair (after 5 games): Nebraska –7.5 to –8.5, Total 52–55. Rationale: Nebraska’s passing efficiency + 3rd-down defense > Maryland’s pass rush/ball skills; Maryland’s run game likely insufficient to keep NEB off script.

Predicted game flow​

• Early: Nebraska tests vertically; Maryland answers with quick game and shots to Knotts/Smith, leaning on pressure/turnovers to get short fields.
• Middle: If Terps can’t run, their 3rd-and-mediums meet Nebraska’s 3rd-down defense; drives stall.
• Late: Nebraska’s depth/efficiency creates a 2-score cushion unless they lose turnover battle by 2+.

Betting angles (if you’re playing it)​

• Side: Small-to-moderate lean Nebraska –6 (–6.5 acceptable) given fair ~–8.
• Total: Over 50.5 leans positive unless wind/rain forecast worsens.
• Derivatives:
  
  • Nebraska team total Over (model ~28.5–30.5).
  • 1H Nebraska if you expect scripted deep shots before Maryland’s pressure packages fully settle.
• Risk flags: Maryland’s sacks + INTs can swing variance; if they hit a +2 turnover day, they can flip the script. UMTerps

 

[Cornicator]

I can't believe I've reached the moment in my Husker Fandom where I'm looking at Special teams matchups with excitement. But a few things need to be brought up here about this game:

Maryland is currently 115th nationally in punt return defense.

Huskers are 17th nationally in punt returns.

They're also 75th in kick return defense with the fewest kicked touch backs in the Power 4. Only 8 teams in college football have kicked fewer touchbacks.

 

[Baron Winnebago]

I can't believe I've reached the moment in my Husker Fandom where I'm looking at Special teams matchups with excitement. But a few things need to be brought up here about this game:

Maryland is currently 115th nationally in punt return defense.

Huskers are 17th nationally in punt returns.

They're also 75th in kick return defense with the fewest kicked touch backs in the Power 4. Only 8 teams in college football have kicked fewer touchbacks.

Corndog, I can't for the life of me figure out why Nebraska isn't going to beat the piss out of them

 

[Cornicator]

Corndog, I can't for the life of me figure out why Nebraska isn't going to beat the piss out of them

They have an extremely athletic defensive front 7.

That should give you pause.

 

[ChocaEgg]

They have an extremely athletic defensive front 7.

That should give you pause.

 

[Baron Winnebago]

They have an extremely athletic defensive front 7.

That should give you pause.

 

[Flabio]

They have an extremely athletic defensive front 7.

That should give you pause.