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I wasn’t expecting that. Want to watch the UMD game today and see if there is justification in that. I was ready to bet the money line hard that Purdue would win but with those odds it’s not worth it.
Purdue a 14 pt fave
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Purdue a 14 pt fave
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I saw it dip to 11 in some books. Looks like it's back up:
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Purdue is very close to being undefeated and the two teams they lost to are undefeated. They also beat Minnesota and Maryland who are much better than us. Purdue should whoop or ass.
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They also barely beat 2-4 Florida Atlantic, Purdue has been Syracuse toughest team so far (NC State this week). Same with Penn St (who also struggled against Northwestern).
I think you're probably right but whole lot of ambiguity there.
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Purdue is a solid team this year. I wasn’t too high on PSU, but they are a pretty good team. I hope Nebraska wins, but I just don’t see it happening especially on the road in a night game.
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Against FAU O'Connel did not play. The game still shouldn't have been that close.
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Yeah and Purdue coming off two good B1G wins.
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QB is going to torch us for about 500 yds.
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The only positive spin I can come up with is that Purdue will be playing it's 7th straight game after being on the road the last 2 weeks against two teams better than Nebraska. Maybe Nebraska catches them tired. Nebraska got the extra day with the Friday night game.
Again that is the only positive spin I have here. Purdue is a good team. Jeff Brohm likely will be at Louisville next year if Satterfield doesnt' find a way to go 3-3 over the next 6 games...
Pitt
Wake
James Madison
Clemson
NC State
Kentucky
Again that is the only positive spin I have here. Purdue is a good team. Jeff Brohm likely will be at Louisville next year if Satterfield doesnt' find a way to go 3-3 over the next 6 games...
Pitt
Wake
James Madison
Clemson
NC State
Kentucky
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I didn't watch a lot of the Minnesota game but what I saw I wasn't seeing a Perdoo team that was twice as good as Minnie. And I'm almost half through the UMD game. Here's what I'm seeing on them so far (maybe more to come later):
Offense: Outside of the Charlie Jones/O'Connell connection, their passing game was limited. UMD had some dumb penalties that kept them moving the ball. It's the same theory as GSU and Indiana have. Get you to cheat up so they can slip a WR past you deep. They will pass quick, which I suspect will eliminate a pass rush for us. I would think you'll see us only rushing 4, playing eyes, and staying in over/under zone to try and close-out/tackle the ball in front of us. This said, I would have likely said the same going into the Rutgers game and we put together a pretty nice blitz package in that game, sending from all different directions.
Defense: Much less pressure sent than Rutgers. I think we'll be able to run the ball better on them than we could Rutgers b/c our shitty OL won't be immediately having to deal with a man that's on top of them at the snap. They'll be able to double then fall over themselves before making it to the 2nd level. But that little extra time will mean we'll be able to more consistently get 4 ypc. They rally well. Tackle well. But benefited off a bunch of bad passes and drops by UMD. Honestly, a little surprised how bad Tagovailoa was given I assumed he was the 2nd best QB in the conference. Other than how he'll run the ball a little more frequently than Casey, I don't see him better.
My take before finishing what I'd like to watch...
I am a betting man, but when it comes to Nebraska, I always bet against us b/c I view it as buying wins. So, I'm going to bet Perdue. But, if I wasn't an emotional better, I'd be taking Nebraska with the points. I don't see an aggressive defense that will shut us down on the ground like Rutgers did, and I don't see a dangerous offense that will pour on a bunch of points. To me, the clear bet here is taking the under, which I'm finding at 60. That's like a score of 37-23. I don't think they'll get 37. I also don't think we'll get 23. I see us capping at 20 or so, and the question is if our defense can keep them under that.
P.S. FanDuel had it at 14. I'm seeing other lines at 12. FunDuel doesn't have anything on money line or o/u right now.
P.P.S. I have a little sprinkle on Purdue winning the west from preseason (+700).
Offense: Outside of the Charlie Jones/O'Connell connection, their passing game was limited. UMD had some dumb penalties that kept them moving the ball. It's the same theory as GSU and Indiana have. Get you to cheat up so they can slip a WR past you deep. They will pass quick, which I suspect will eliminate a pass rush for us. I would think you'll see us only rushing 4, playing eyes, and staying in over/under zone to try and close-out/tackle the ball in front of us. This said, I would have likely said the same going into the Rutgers game and we put together a pretty nice blitz package in that game, sending from all different directions.
Defense: Much less pressure sent than Rutgers. I think we'll be able to run the ball better on them than we could Rutgers b/c our shitty OL won't be immediately having to deal with a man that's on top of them at the snap. They'll be able to double then fall over themselves before making it to the 2nd level. But that little extra time will mean we'll be able to more consistently get 4 ypc. They rally well. Tackle well. But benefited off a bunch of bad passes and drops by UMD. Honestly, a little surprised how bad Tagovailoa was given I assumed he was the 2nd best QB in the conference. Other than how he'll run the ball a little more frequently than Casey, I don't see him better.
My take before finishing what I'd like to watch...
I am a betting man, but when it comes to Nebraska, I always bet against us b/c I view it as buying wins. So, I'm going to bet Perdue. But, if I wasn't an emotional better, I'd be taking Nebraska with the points. I don't see an aggressive defense that will shut us down on the ground like Rutgers did, and I don't see a dangerous offense that will pour on a bunch of points. To me, the clear bet here is taking the under, which I'm finding at 60. That's like a score of 37-23. I don't think they'll get 37. I also don't think we'll get 23. I see us capping at 20 or so, and the question is if our defense can keep them under that.
P.S. FanDuel had it at 14. I'm seeing other lines at 12. FunDuel doesn't have anything on money line or o/u right now.
P.P.S. I have a little sprinkle on Purdue winning the west from preseason (+700).
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Finished watching the game...
The story of the Pur vs UMD game was one where Purdue had a bunch of turnovers, and Maryland had a bunch of bad mistakes. It was a pretty even match, which a 31-29 score would suggest. UMD looked better if it weren't for those mistakes. As the turnovers by Purdue were forced. Good coverage and good pressure. With about 4 mins left, Maryland had a 6 point lead. This from a TD and missed extra point where the player who blocked the XP may have been offsides. Purdue scored, got the XP to take a 1pt lead. Then UMD gets the ball, goes 3&O, punts, and has an assignment snafu forgetting to cover the TE when they were in man coverage. Whoops. Now they are down by 8. They take the next drive and score fairly easily. This with a minute left. Get the 2 pt conversion to tie, but had an illegal man down field. Whoops.
I didn't walk away from this game feeling good about my Purdue bet.
On further review, I do think we'll be able to get pressure on them like we did against Rutgers. Saw a lot of similar pressure packages UMD ran against Purdue that worked.
The story of the Pur vs UMD game was one where Purdue had a bunch of turnovers, and Maryland had a bunch of bad mistakes. It was a pretty even match, which a 31-29 score would suggest. UMD looked better if it weren't for those mistakes. As the turnovers by Purdue were forced. Good coverage and good pressure. With about 4 mins left, Maryland had a 6 point lead. This from a TD and missed extra point where the player who blocked the XP may have been offsides. Purdue scored, got the XP to take a 1pt lead. Then UMD gets the ball, goes 3&O, punts, and has an assignment snafu forgetting to cover the TE when they were in man coverage. Whoops. Now they are down by 8. They take the next drive and score fairly easily. This with a minute left. Get the 2 pt conversion to tie, but had an illegal man down field. Whoops.
I didn't walk away from this game feeling good about my Purdue bet.
On further review, I do think we'll be able to get pressure on them like we did against Rutgers. Saw a lot of similar pressure packages UMD ran against Purdue that worked.
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Vegas loves Purdue I don’t like that
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Maryland 41 dropbacks
Minn 38 dropbacks
Florida Atlantic 31 dropbacks
Syracuse 39 dropbacks
Indiana St 26 dropbacks...20/26 might be our ratio
Penn St
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It could be simply because how good RU looked against us, but they had a good defense ranking before so perhaps RU is just a good defense… I think RU’s is better.
Purdue doesn’t look as aggressive. Maryland was able to run and pass on them. If PU runs the same defense, which seems basic, then I like our chances. If they take RUs queue and show blitz from all directions I have no faith we’ll know what to do. I’ll adjust my take after watching the Minnie game.
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