His prediction sounds good, coming from a homer.
Ask the Expert: Northwestern writer gives takes, score prediction for Saturday
Grant Hansen •about 10 hours
Northwestern tight end Charlie Mangieri catches the winning touchdown in overtime against Minnesota at Ryan Field. (Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports)
Nebraska welcomes the 3-3 Northwestern Wildcats to Lincoln on Saturday for its first game in the second half of the 2023 season.
This week, HuskerOnline sat down with
Louie Vaccher of WildcatReport to breakdown Northwestern in the “Ask the Expert” column. He talks the Wildcats’ surprising .500 start, the health of quarterback
Ben Bryant and interim head coach David Braun’s shot at the full-time job.
Here are Vaccher’s thoughts and score prediction for Saturday’s game.
1. What has surprised you the most about Northwestern’s season?
I think just the fact that Northwestern is 3-3 at the halfway point of the season and still has a shot at becoming bowl eligible is the biggest surprise of all.
You have to remember where this program was in mid-July, when head coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired. It seemed like the sky was falling. There were questions about whether the Wildcats should just cancel the season, even though it was never really an option. And here we are, after six games, and the Wildcats already have three wins – two more than they had all of last season, and one short of the total from the last two seasons combined.
That says a lot about the people in the Northwestern locker room, especially interim head coach David Braun.
Northwestern’s administration’s handling of the hazing scandal that cost Fitzgerald his job and spawned a host of lawsuits was riddled with miscues, but they did pick the right guy to lead the program through this very difficult time.
2. Which unit has exceeded expectations and which needs to improve the most?
I think the best and weakest units are on the offense.
This might be Northwestern’s best starting wide receiver group in more than a decade.
Cam Johnson, a grad transfer from Vanderbilt and Arizona State, leads the team with 26 catches and is a strong, physical possession receiver.
Bryce Kirtz has some speed and leads the Cats with 327 receiving yards and three touchdown catches. He turned in the best performance by a Northwestern receiver since 1980 when he put up 10 catches for 215 yards against Minnesota. Finally, there’s the burner, grad transfer
AJ Henning from Michigan, who has the speed to blow the top off of a defense – something we don’t see very often in Evanston.
On the flip side, I think the offensive line has been the biggest disappointment thus far. They have allowed 22 sacks, the second-most in the Big Ten. Not all of them are solely their responsibility, but when Howard registers four sacks against you – their total through five previous games – there are some issues. On top of that, they haven’t been able to get much of a push up front in the running game – they rank last in the Big Ten in rushing – and allow 7.0 tackles for loss per game, which ranks 97th in the nation. More was expected from a unit that had quite a bit of starting experience returning.
3. Will Ben Bryant be good to go this week and what has he brought to the table compared to his predecessors?
The status of Bryant is unknown, but I think it’s doubtful we see him on Saturday. Braun dropped a bomb on Monday at his press conference, saying he was “not sure exactly what [Bryant’s] status will be come game time. But he is progressing and we anticipate that will be something we continue to evaluate as the week goes along.”
That sounds ominous.
Bryant suffered what the program called an upper body injury against Penn State and missed the Wildcats’ last game against Howard, but we thought that was more precautionary than anything against an FCS opponent.
If Bryant can’t play, that really puts a dent in Northwestern’s chances of pulling off an upset. Nebraska has a strong run defense, and the Wildcats haven’t been able to run the ball very well for most of the season. I thought their best chance against Nebraska was to let Bryant throw it all over the yard to a very talented receiver corps. Bryant is by far Northwestern’s best and most efficient passer.
Brendan Sullivan, who played against Howard in Bryant’s absence, is a dual-threat guy who looked indecisive throwing the ball.
I wonder if
Ryan Hilinski, the man who led NU’s win over the Huskers last season, might get the start because he’s the best remaining thrower. Whoever starts, we’ll also likely see
Jack Lausch take some snaps, too; he’s a wildcat quarterback they like to bring in as a change-of-pace.
4. What is the path to victory for Northwestern?
As I explained above, I thought the passing game was Northwestern’s best hope offensively. That’s how they beat Minnesota; they trailed 31-10 in the fourth quarter and had no choice but to air it out, and Bryant was brilliant as the Cats scored 21 unanswered points to tie it, and then he threw a TD pass to win it in the first overtime. The biggest question against Nebraska was going to be whether the Wildcats could protect him. When you give him time, Bryant is a very accurate and capable quarterback. With Bryant out, I’m not sure Sullivan or Hilinski will be able to execute the same game plan.
Defensively, the strategy will be pretty straightforward: contain the run, keep
Heinrich Haarberg in the pocket and make him beat you through the air. That’s easier said than done, of course, but Northwestern did a pretty good job against Penn State earlier this season.
Dual-threat QBs generally give NU fits, as Duke’s
Riley Leonard did in Week 3, but if their ends can contain Haarberg and not let him get outside to extend plays, they may be able to keep the Wildcats in the game. But they’ll wear down unless the offense holds up their end of the bargain.
5. How would you evaluate David Brauns’ performance as interim head coach? Does he have a shot at the head job?
I think Braun has exceeded just about everyone’s expectations so far. The players absolutely love him, and if you watch the Wildcats, you can see that they are playing hard every week.
Braun has been open, honest and straightforward with players, fans and the media. He seems to be a genuinely good guy and everyone seems to both like and respect him. He’s done a tremendous job holding this team together in the wake of the firing of a beloved head coach, and keeping this team focused week to week.
We’ll see how Braun closes out the season, but I think he has at least earned an interview at this point. There are questions about whether he’ll be able to recruit at a Big Ten level, and whether he’ll be able to lead the program through the upheaval coming.
Remember, whoever the new coach is will have to deal with the fallout of several lawsuits, replacing all or part of a coaching staff, rebuilding a roster that may lose a lot of transfers and reporting to an athletic director and school president who have also come under fire.
Oh, and, if the stadium plan goes forward as expected, the Wildcats will have to play without a true home field the next two years as Ryan Field is remodeled. That’s a challenging scenario for Nick Saban, let alone a coach as inexperienced as Braun.
6. How similar are the stakes for Nebraska and Northwestern entering this week’s game?
I would imagine both teams view this game as a must-win if they want to make a bowl game this season.
Northwestern has three program goals each year: win the West division, win the Big Ten and win the bowl game. Technically, they are all still on the table (Remember, NU is 1-2 in the Big Ten and still controls its destiny if they win), but this season would be seen as a huge success if the Wildcats can just make a bowl game. It might earn Braun the full-time job, too, as well as potentially the Big Ten coach of the year award.
Northwestern needs three more wins to be bowl-eligible. Looking at the rest of the schedule, Nebraska, Purdoodoo and Illinois are probably their best chances to get wins. Their other games, against Maryland, Cockeye and Wisconsin, are definitely less likely. But in the wild, wild West, where no one can score, anything is possible, isn’t it?
7. What’s your final take and score prediction for Saturday’s game?
If Bryant can’t play, I don’t think Northwestern will be able to get over the hump. I think the defense will allow them to hang around, but ultimately, if the offense can’t get a rhythm going and goes three-and-out too many times, the Wildcats will wear down and the Huskers will pull away.
That said, the one wild card here is turnovers. The Huskers are -7 on the year and rank 130th in the nation in turnover margin. If they give the ball away a few times, Northwestern could have a chance to steal one in Lincoln. And as Husker fans know, they’ve done it before.
Expert Score Prediction: Nebraska 23, Northwestern 13
