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Nebrasketball: Quad breakdown + odds to dance ** Updated 2/2/26 **

Schedule detail

Mar 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM
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  1. Seaofred92 Seaofred92
Thread is irrelevant for updating, but I'll do it for another week or two...

- 19 wins gives us a chance, a slim one, at dancing
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance

- 21 wins and we're dancing
- 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed

As of 1/26/26 results (20-0, 8-0)

This week we went 2-0; 2 wins against Q2 Washington and at Q2 Minnesota. Currently #5 in NET...

Net positive - gained 1 Q1 win (at Northwestern moved to from Q2) and 2 more Q2 wins (Washington and at Minnesota)
Net negative - none

Q1 = 6-0; at Illinois, Michigan State, at Indiana, at Ohio State, ntrl New Mexico, at Northwestern (Q2 last week)
Q2 = 6-0; Wisconsin, Washington, Pickle Smoochers, ntrl Oklahoma, at Minnesota, ntrl Kansas State
Q3 = 2-0; Oregon, Winthrop
Q4 = 6-0; FIU, USC Upstate, North Dakota, West Georgia, UMES, New Hampshire
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q2), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q3), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
1 quad change with future opponents this week; Northwestern in Lincoln moved to a Q2 game

- 19 wins gives us a chance, a slim one, at dancing
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance

- 21 wins and we're dancing
- 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed

Results as of 2/2/26 results (20-2, 8-2)

This week we went 0-2; both losses to Q1 at Michigan and Illinois. Currently #10 in NET (dropped 5 spots)...

Net positive - none
Net negative - Pickle Smoochers dropped to a Q3 win (75 is cutoff for Q2 at home & they're 76)

Q1 = 6-2; (L) at Michigan, at Illinois, (L) Illinois, Michigan State, at Indiana, at Ohio State, ntrl New Mexico, at Northwestern (Q2 last week)
Q2 = 5-0; Wisconsin, Washington, ntrl Oklahoma, at Minnesota, ntrl Kansas State
Q3 = 3-0; Pickle Smoochers (Q2 last week), Oregon, Winthrop
Q4 = 6-0; FIU, USC Upstate, North Dakota, West Georgia, UMES, New Hampshire
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Feb - @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q2), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
1 quad change with future opponents this week; Maryland in Lincoln moved to a Q3 game
 
As a projected #3 seed, they have us in the South. Does that still give us OKC? The NCAA’s site absolutely sucks.
Projections are going to be really unreliable for locations. Most of them don't follow the rules very closely because it's a lot of work and there are a lot of rules.

This page has the document with the NCAA guidance.

 
Projections are going to be really unreliable for locations. Most of them don't follow the rules very closely because it's a lot of work and there are a lot of rules.

This page has the document with the NCAA guidance.


Can't stand the guy, but Lunardi's bracket has actual locations.

 
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Would hate to have Houston as our 3.

Seems absurd to be worrying about the sweet 16 game though too.

I assume in Houston as well. Would be a tough matchup but that’s first world problems

I like Nebraska vs any team that has their whole offense built around dribble drives and feeding the post.

Houston is very similar to Michigan State right now.

Teams with bigs who can shoot, pass across the floor and move are the teams that will give Nebraska trouble.

If Nebraska is healthy, they can beat a team like Houston.
 
I like Nebraska vs any team that has their whole offense built around dribble drives and feeding the post.

Houston is very similar to Michigan State right now.

Teams with bigs who can shoot, pass across the floor and move are the teams that will give Nebraska trouble.

If Nebraska is healthy, they can beat a team like Houston.
Plus I think the big red faithful would show up in Houston and not make it feel like a home game (wishful thinking )
 
I like Nebraska vs any team that has their whole offense built around dribble drives and feeding the post.

Houston is very similar to Michigan State right now.

Teams with bigs who can shoot, pass across the floor and move are the teams that will give Nebraska trouble.

If Nebraska is healthy, they can beat a team like Houston.

Houston plays a style of defense that would cause us major issues. It'll all depend how the game is officiated. Allow their physicality, which is likely in a S16 (and later) game, we're in trouble. Officiated tightly, then I like our odds, a lot.

And I'm not as worried about your third sentence. We missed plenty of open shots against Illinois.
 
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