We also barely wound up making the field last year. Being a double digit seed at large team puts you in a precarious position.
The hope with scheduling the sub-300 KenPom/NET rated teams is you just beat the piss out of them. NET factors in margin of victory so its better to overperform against a terrible team than beat say a team rated 120 by the expected margin (or lose). Instead we’ve been eeking out wins against bad teams which will hurt in the long run.
We really need to be in a better MTE going forward for scheduling purposes. The Diamond Head Classic field is BAD. We play Murray State to open (KenPom 91) and then play either the winner/loser of Charlotte (135) or Hawaii (177). If we make it to the title game you pray we play Loyola Chicago (83). For comparison purposes, we are KenPom’s 66th rated team and Saint Mary’s would’ve been a very solidly Q1 win for us with their KenPom of 42.
Winning @ Pickle Smoochers on Friday (18) would be a major major boost to our resume. Losing that game and then not winning the Diamond Head Classic would put us in a terrible spot going into conference play for an at large bid. Yesterday was a huge missed opportunity for us despite playing our best game of the season.