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Mandel’s Mailbag: College Football Playoff predictions, is NIL a recruiting bogeyman?
By Stewart Mandel
5h ago
Is NIL being way overhyped as a giant bogeyman? Fans claimed that Dante Moore and Peyton Bowen both got paid off by Oregon, only for neither of them to sign there. Coaches claim they lost recruits to NIL but refuse to give any details at all. And it’s hilarious to hear coaches talk about tampering when head coaches keep taking new jobs the day after the season ends. Couldn’t you say that Lincoln Riley, Brian Kelly, Luke #2ndChoice and others were “tampered with?” — Vincent V.
Someone on The Athletic staff needs to write an expose on the amount of money being offered by different schools to the top recruits and how it is impacting the recruits’ decisions. I know it will be hard to get the data but The Athletic knows how. — Scott K.
NIL is having a tremendous impact on recruiting — and I include the transfer portal in recruiting — but it’s not nearly as black and white as many coaches/fans make it out to be. And because this is all still evolving on the fly, it’s hard to separate what is a rumor from what is a fact.
Here’s what I understand the landscape to be as of Dec. 28.
• The number of schools with well-organized and funded (to various degrees) NIL collectives has grown from about a half dozen last spring to encompass the majority of Power 5 programs as well as several Group of 5s.
• Almost no one is following any rules on tampering, pay-for-play, etc., because they realize there is a next-to-no chance of the NCAA busting anybody for it. As one coach told me, if you’re waiting for a kid’s name to show up in the portal before contacting him, you’re already too late.
• The $2-million-a-year NIL contract The Athletic reported on in March, which other outlets confirmed to be for Tennessee QB commit Nico Iamaleava, proved to be an outlier, not a market-setter. Despite rumors of the contrary, only a small handful of players nationally are getting a seven-figure deal from a school’s collective. (Their own outside endorsement deals might be another story.)
• As the Dec. 5 portal window neared, most coaches and collectives shifted their resources from high-school recruits to transfers. Nearly every high-profile transfer, and even some run-of-the-mill guys, likely got something, but it’s much more likely to be in the range of $200,000 than $2 million. A notable exception: Proven QBs. I can’t say with certainty what, if anything, Sam Hartman, Devin Leary or Grayson McCall are being offered, but seven figures is realistic.
• There is a growing industry of small-time agents trying to make a living out of convincing kids to go in the portal so they can get paid elsewhere (and take a hefty commission) rather than stay where they are and get nothing. These guys have zero chance of landing NFL clients so their sole goal is a one-off deal.
• Finally, and this part I can’t emphasize enough: Not all kids make their decisions based on money. For most, it’s just one of many factors to consider, along with playing time, NFL development, academics, a chance to win a championship, etc. The movie-version “bidding war,” where a guy automatically takes the highest offer, is likely very rare.
Having spelled all that out — is NIL a “bogeyman?” If you’re a coach or fan of a team who loses a recruit to someone who paid more, you may see it as such. As an impartial observer, though, I’d contend the more “evil” model was the previous one where the NCAA spent decades depriving athletes of compensation that we now see was just sitting there waiting to be doled out to them.
